Axios

GM's optimistic forecast for 2019 surprised a lot of investors Friday, triggering an 8% surge in GM stock, but CEO Mary Barra has been laying the groundwork for more than 3 years.

The big picture: Barra is building a case for how GM will remain healthy amid factors she can't control — trade friction, economic slowdown, and rising commodity prices — not to mention the historic transformation of the automobile.

GM appears to be serious about their zero-emissions vision: the company is shifting 75% of its powertrain engineers from internal-combustion engines to electric vehicle development as it prepares to unleash of wave of EVs under the Cadillac brand.

The big picture: GM CEO Mary Barra has laid out a blueprint for shifting to electric, self-driving cars — a world, she says, with "zero crashes, zero emissions and zero congestion." That will require shifting resources to AV and EV development — at a time when GM is closing factories and laying off 15,000 workers, triggering the wrath of President Trump.

China is poised to gain global leverage with its dominance in clean-energy technologies, while poorer, fossil-fuel dependent nations like Libya are likely to be on the losing end in the world’s shift to cleaner sources of energy, according to a new report out today.

Why it matters: Fossil fuels, particularly oil, have been shaping history for the better part of the last century. Less well-known are the anticipated geopolitical impacts of the world’s slow, but clear shift to renewable energy sources, a transition set to play out unevenly around the world for decades to come.

New, independent observations from ocean buoys and other data sources show Earth's oceans are warming at a rate that's about 40% faster than indicated in the 2013 U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.

Why it matters: The study, published Thursday in the journal Science, resolves a key uncertainty in climate science by reconciling analyses from a variety of different scientific teams.

Fiat Chrysler will pay more than $500 million in a settlement announced Thursday with the Justice Department and Environmental Protection Agency over allegations that it installed software on some diesel vehicles that produced lower emissions results.

Why it matters, via Axios' Amy Harder: Following a much larger scandal at Volkswagen in 2015 that resulted in billions in fines for the German automaker, it's a reminder that vehicles' efficiency shouldn't be taken for granted. Politically, the settlement highlights a sense of continuity between the Obama and Trump administrations' enforcement actions in this area.

A suite of groups on the environmental movement's left flank are out with a new open letter to House members about their legislative goals around climate change.

Why it matters: The statement endorsed by groups including Friends of the Earth and 350.org is an early sign of efforts to influence the shape of the Green New Deal (and climate policy more broadly).

Several new developments in early 2019 provide a glimpse into the next wave of automakers' accelerating preparation for the mainstreaming of electric vehicles.

Driving the news: Ford and Volkswagen are on the cusp of announcing a major partnership at next week's Detroit Auto Show that includes EVs and autonomous vehicles, Reuters first reported.

ExxonMobil Corp. is actively considering whether to invest in electric-charging stations, according to an Atlantic Council report published this week.

Why it matters: Most other international oil and gas companies have at least token investments in electric-charging infrastructure, but Exxon has been an outlier among its peers in this space. Exxon's possible change of heart reflects Big Oil’s recognition that the world is transitioning away (albeit slowly) from oil-powered cars as part of a broader shift in the energy industry's response to climate change.