Ben Geman Feb 27
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The crude oil "supply gap" risk

Photo: Dave Walsh / VW Pics / UIG via Getty Images

A big question among oil experts these days is whether today's worldwide investments in new supplies are too low to avoid risk of a "supply gap" opening up in the early 2020s as demand grows and existing fields decline.

The big picture: Two competing views presented this week offer a pessimistic and optimistic take on the situation, taking on opposite sides of the investment debate.

Fresh warning: The head of one of the world's largest oil-and-gas companies says the surge in U.S. crude production is not enough to prevent problems from emerging in a few years.

  • “Even if the U.S. shale oil is dynamic, we do not invest enough in this industry,” Total CEO Patrick Pouyanné says on the new episode of the Columbia Energy Exchange podcast.
  • He says under-investment in recent years is still a problem in 2018.
  • “Post-2020, the price will go high, because we will have a lack of capacity, and even with the shale oil dynamic, the global production of oil will be not enough. We are under-investing,” Pouyanné says.

Don't worry so much: A research note this week from Barclays analysts, however, suggests that these types of concerns are likely misplaced.

  • They argue that even with declines from mature fields, there has been enough new supply coming online from 2011–2017 even outside OPEC and U.S. shale to nearly offset it. And they don't see that changing.
  • "In the next couple of years, projects that have already received a green light are coming online and will further mitigate those declines. That means that the ‘mature base’ of non-OPEC non-US supply is flat from now through at least 2022, and it leaves OPEC liquids, US tight oil, Canadian oil sands, and non-crude liquids available to meet incremental demand growth," they write.
Khorri Atkinson 8 hours ago
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China slaps reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports

China's President Xi Jinping speaks next to President Trump. Photo: Nicolas Asfouri// AFP / Getty Images

China announced plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on $3 billion of imports from the U.S., hours after President Trump ordered levies on a range of Chinese goods.

The details: China's plan includes a 25% tariff on U.S. pork imports as well as 15% tariffs on American steel pipes, fruit and wine, according to Bloomberg.

Haley Britzky 8 hours ago
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Former Playmate alleges Trump tried to pay her after sex

President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence walk into the Diplomat Room.
President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence walk into the Diplomat Room. Photo: Mark Wilson / Getty Images

Former Playboy model Karen McDougal detailed her relationship with President Trump — which he has denied — in an interview with CNN's Anderson Cooper on Thursday night, including the first time she met Melania and how he tried to pay her after the first time they had sex.

The details: The alleged affair took place while he was married to Melania and shortly after his youngest son was born. McDougal said they met while the Apprentice was filming at the Playboy mansion, and began seeing each other "quite frequently." She told Cooper that Trump told her he loved her "all the time," and that there "was a real relationship there."