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The decision of 11 governments in Latin America, the U.S., the Organization of American States (OAS), and Canada last month to recognize Juan Guaidó as Venezuela's legitimate president was many years in the making. The international community has long looked to act on Venezuela, but the incremental measures of President Hugo Chávez and later Nicolás Maduro to roll back the country’s democracy and freedoms failed to provide one specific moment — like a traditional military coup — that could trigger collective action.

Sen. Marco Rubio speaks about the ongoing crisis in Venezuela at Our Lady of Guadalupe Catholic Church on August 23, 2017 in Doral, Florida. 

Sen. Marco Rubio speaks about the ongoing crisis in Venezuela, in Doral, Fla., on Aug. 23, 2017. Photo: Joe Raedle via Getty Images

Commitment to defend representative democracy in the hemisphere has been a central part of regional diplomacy since 2001, when the 34 OAS members signed the 2001 Democratic Charter. But by any measure, the international community’s decision to act last week was a bold move, led at least rhetorically by the U.S., with President Trump twice calling Guaidó, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo presenting the case to the UN Security Council, and Vice President Mike Pence meeting with the Carlos Vecchio, Guaidó’s ambassador to the U.S.  

Yes, but: For the U.S. and the Trump administration, the move also has electoral ramifications. Since Trump's inauguration, the White House has partially outsourced its Latin America policy to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) through Pence.

From Trump’s June 2017 announcement in Miami that he would partially roll back Obama's diplomatic opening to Cuba to National Security Advisor John Bolton's November 2018 speech (again in Miami) denouncing what he called the "Troika of Tyranny" (Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela), the ramped-up rhetoric for many in the Latin American diaspora community was electoral red meat.

The emphasis is based in no small part on the White House's disproven belief that hard-line Cuban Americans flipped Florida for Trump in 2016 and will play a key role in 2020.

The bottom line: The electoral misperception and narrow ideological band of advisors do not inherently render the recent moves by the White House to recognize Guaidó and then impose oil sanctions on the Maduro government wrong or ill advised. The question now is how far the policy’s main boosters — Rubio and other Florida politicians such as Sen. Rick Scott — will push the White House should these steps fail to budge Maduro.

Christopher Sabatini is an adjunct professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, executive director of Global Americans and a non-resident fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute.

U.S. action on Maduro informed by Florida's electoral politics

Trump has partially outsourced his Latin America policy to Marco Rubio.

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The decision of 11 governments in Latin America, the U.S., the<a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text=" Organization of American States (OAS)" data-vars-click-url="http://www.oas.org/en/media_center/press_release.asp?sCodigo=E-001/19" data-vars-content-id="0390aec7-a7ba-432b-b1c4-508586ea0adc" data-vars-headline="U.S. action on Maduro informed by Florida&#x27;s electoral politics" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="http://www.oas.org/en/media_center/press_release.asp?sCodigo=E-001/19" target="_blank"> Organization of American States (OAS)</a>, and Canada last month to recognize Juan Guaidó as Venezuela&#x27;s legitimate president was many years in the making. The international community has long looked to act on Venezuela, but the incremental measures of President Hugo Chávez and later Nicolás Maduro to roll back the country’s democracy and freedoms failed to provide one specific moment — like a traditional military coup — that could trigger collective action.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Two Russian planes landed in Venezuela on Saturday, reportedly carrying 35 tons of military supplies and 100 Russian troops. The Venezuelan and Russian governments have claimed that the materiel and troops are there under a contract to service Russian military equipment, but the timing and the scale belie those claims.

Why it matters: More than two months after the United States and 50 other countries recognized National Assembly leader Juan Guaidó as president of the country, Russia’s latest power play is a defiant move to shape events in what has long been considered a U.S. sphere of influence.

Background: Vladimir Putin's government has long been an ally of the Venezuelan government, first under President Hugo Chávez and now under Nicolás Maduro.

Russia has lent the struggling economy $3.15 billion under generous terms, and Russian energy company Rosneft has heavily invested in the country’s oil exploration and production.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has imposed unilateral sanctions, including a freeze on payment for oil imports to the Venezuelan government, a freeze on the international bank accounts of government officials, and penalties like visa cancellations and bank account freezes on hundreds of Maduro’s associates and friends.

As a result, an international effort to reverse Venezuela’s long slide into autocracy and humanitarian crisis became seen as an American campaign. The U.S. staked its maneuvers on a bet that the military high command would turn on Maduro and back Guaidó as interim president until the country could hold free and fair elections. 

The bottom line: Russian troops are more than a hedge against a U.S. invasion; they are a signal to prevent the defections from the Venezuelan military that the U.S. and others had been banking on. Now, perhaps in part as reprisal for U.S. support of Ukraine's democratic government against Russian intervention, Putin may try to play a role in any solution to the Venezuelan standoff.

Russian troops firm up support for Maduro, impeding U.S.-led efforts

Putin has injected himself into the already fraught Venezuelan standoff.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a Dec. 5, 2018, meeting. Photo:  Valery Sharifulin/TASS via Getty Images

Two Russian planes landed in Venezuela on Saturday, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="reportedly" data-vars-click-url="https://www.dw.com/en/russia-sends-military-planes-to-venezuela/a-48047119" data-vars-content-id="66e4953a-2c99-47d2-b3ad-bfe0f426bc80" data-vars-headline="Russian troops firm up support for Maduro, impeding U.S.-led efforts" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.dw.com/en/russia-sends-military-planes-to-venezuela/a-48047119" target="_blank">reportedly</a> carrying 35 tons of military supplies and 100 <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Russian troops" data-vars-click-url="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/russian-air-force-planes-land-in-venezuela-carrying-troops-report-idUSKCN1R50NB" data-vars-content-id="66e4953a-2c99-47d2-b3ad-bfe0f426bc80" data-vars-headline="Russian troops firm up support for Maduro, impeding U.S.-led efforts" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics/russian-air-force-planes-land-in-venezuela-carrying-troops-report-idUSKCN1R50NB" target="_blank">Russian troops</a>. The Venezuelan and Russian governments have claimed that the materiel and troops are there under a contract to service <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Russian military equipment" data-vars-click-url="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-25/venezuela-says-russian-troops-land-to-service-military-equipment?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_content=business&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&amp;utm_campaign=socialflow-organic" data-vars-content-id="66e4953a-2c99-47d2-b3ad-bfe0f426bc80" data-vars-headline="Russian troops firm up support for Maduro, impeding U.S.-led efforts" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-25/venezuela-says-russian-troops-land-to-service-military-equipment?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_content=business&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&amp;utm_campaign=socialflow-organic" target="_blank">Russian military equipment</a>, but the timing and the scale belie those claims.Why it matters: More than two months after the United States and 50 other countries recognized National Assembly leader Juan Guaidó as president of the country, Russia’s latest power play is a defiant move to shape events in what has long been considered a U.S. sphere of influence.

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

The Trump administration has been threatening to revoke a deal between Major League Baseball (MLB) and the Cuban Baseball Federation, under pressure from Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and NSC Senior Director for the Western Hemisphere Mauricio Claver-Carone. The deal would permit MLB to legally recruit Cuban players, thus avoiding the long, treacherous journey that many Cubans have taken to join the league. 

Why it matters: The threatened reversal is another example of how, when it comes to U.S.-Cuba policy, the desire for punishment and revenge often prevails over practical and humanitarian considerations. In the eyes of Rubio, Claver-Carone and others, any deal struck with Cuba only serves to legitimize its regime. 

Background: The deal, which has been in the works for years, was announced on Dec. 19 and would ensure the safety of Cuban players with the talent and ethic to make it to the U.S. major or minor leagues, as well as that of their families. The agreement is identical to those the MLB has made with the Japanese, Korean and Chinese baseball federations and met wide praise from Cubans who have played professionally in the U.S.

The Cuban Baseball Federation would receive 15%–20% of the total guaranteed value for a major-league contract or 25% of the signing bonus for minor-league contracts —none of it from the players' salaries. This would free players of Cuban government control while enabling them to return to the island, as current Cuban players are not allowed to do. 

Unlike with direct investments in Cuban state entities, the Cuban Baseball Federation has promised to use the proceeds to build new fields, refurbish existing ones and purchase much-needed equipment.

The bottom line: A transparent agreement identical to those with other countries and under which conflicts would be mediated by the International Chamber of Commerce would mark a step toward normalizing human relations under the rule of law and creating humane conditions for immigration and labor. Under the current administration, however, it's unlikely to materialize. 

Trump risks escalating Cuba tensions by scrapping baseball deal

The U.S. has similar agreements with China, Japan and South Korea.

Cuban children practice baseball in a field of Havana, on September 17, 2018

Cuban children practice baseball on a field in Havana. Photo: Yamil Lage/AFP via Getty Images

Cuba

Business

The Trump administration has been <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="threatening to revoke a deal" data-vars-click-url="https://www.mcclatchydc.com/latest-news/article223695430.html" data-vars-content-id="6ae0c9a8-3eb6-4ba8-a493-36345a65bd09" data-vars-headline="Trump risks escalating Cuba tensions by scrapping baseball deal" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.mcclatchydc.com/latest-news/article223695430.html" target="_blank">threatening to revoke a deal</a> between <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Major League Baseball (MLB) and the Cuban Baseball Federation" data-vars-click-url="http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25575240/mlb-mlbpa-cuba-strike-historic-pact-players-sign-defecting" data-vars-content-id="6ae0c9a8-3eb6-4ba8-a493-36345a65bd09" data-vars-headline="Trump risks escalating Cuba tensions by scrapping baseball deal" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25575240/mlb-mlbpa-cuba-strike-historic-pact-players-sign-defecting" target="_blank">Major League Baseball (MLB) and the Cuban Baseball Federation</a>, under pressure from <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Florida Sen. Marco Rubio" data-vars-click-url="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article223673300.html" data-vars-content-id="6ae0c9a8-3eb6-4ba8-a493-36345a65bd09" data-vars-headline="Trump risks escalating Cuba tensions by scrapping baseball deal" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article223673300.html" target="_blank">Florida Sen. Marco Rubio</a> and NSC Senior Director for the Western Hemisphere Mauricio Claver-Carone. The deal would permit MLB to legally recruit Cuban players, thus avoiding the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="long, treacherous journey that many Cubans have taken" data-vars-click-url="https://mssportslaw.olemiss.edu/files/2017/07/Brewster-Note-with-Edits-1.pdf" data-vars-content-id="6ae0c9a8-3eb6-4ba8-a493-36345a65bd09" data-vars-headline="Trump risks escalating Cuba tensions by scrapping baseball deal" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://mssportslaw.olemiss.edu/files/2017/07/Brewster-Note-with-Edits-1.pdf" target="_blank">long, treacherous journey that many Cubans have taken</a> to join the league. Why it matters: The threatened reversal is another example of how, when it comes to U.S.-Cuba policy, the desire for punishment and revenge often prevails over practical and humanitarian considerations. In the eyes of Rubio, Claver-Carone and others, any deal struck with Cuba only serves to legitimize its regime.

Shifts in technology and media are changing the way we play, watch and understand sports. Business models are adapting and social change is forcing those in charge of teams and leagues to reconsider decades-old practices.

Sports

Venezuela's neighbors are struggling to incorporate the stream of refugees who have poured across their borders, yet the international response has paled in comparison to other recent humanitarian crises.

The big picture: An estimated 4.6 million Venezuelans have fled their country since 2015. Their arrival has severely strained social services, housing and labor markets in host countries and in some cases has provoked xenophobic backlash.

By the numbers: At the current rate of more than 5,000 people fleeing the country per day, there will be more than 5 million Venezuelan refugees by the end of 2019 and more than 7 million by the end of 2020.

Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean currently host the vast majority of these refugees — roughly 1.6 million in Colombia, 900,000 in Peru, 400,000 in Chile and 350,000 in Ecuador, according to a UN report. 

The impact: Receiving countries face a tremendous economic burden.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees Joint Special Representative for Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants, Eduardo Stein, has estimated that addressing refugees’ needs will require $3,000 per refugee per year (almost $1.4 billion per year at current levels).

Per a Financial Times report, "The World Bank estimated the influx could shave 0.5% off Colombia’s gross domestic product in 2019."

Where it stands: International commitments to support refugee resettlement and expand social safety net programs have been far from adequate.

Through September, 95 organizations in 16 countries had committed only $738 million for 2019. The U.S., the largest donor, recently increased its commitment to $655 million, and EU countries agreed to do more at an October meeting in Brussels. But that still won't be enough.

By comparison, the international community — mostly the U.S. and EU countries — has directed $33 billion to Syria's 7 million refugees.

Between the lines: One factor constraining the response has been a belief — perpetuated by the Venezuelan opposition and former U.S. national security adviser John Bolton — that regime change is imminent and would simplify the return of refugees. Donor fatigue following the Syria and Rohingya tragedies may also have contributed.

The bottom line:  Without greater international assistance, Venezuela's already struggling neighbors could be dragged down with it. A major public donor conference — led by the U.S., and free of regime change talk — will likely be needed to secure assistance equal to the challenges of this ongoing crisis.

Go deeper: Read the Global Americans report on the refugee crisis.

Christopher Sabatini is a senior research fellow at Chatham House, a lecturer at Columbia University and the director of Global Americans.

Global response to Venezuelan refugee crisis falling short

Venezuela's refugees could outnumber Syria's by late 2020, but support hasn't kept up.

Venezuelan migrants lined up with their bags

Venezuelan migrants waiting to apply for refugee status at a Peruvian border post. Photo: Cris Bouroncle/AFP via Getty Images

Venezuela&#x27;s neighbors are struggling to incorporate the stream of refugees who have poured across their borders, yet the international response has paled in comparison to other recent humanitarian crises.The big picture: An estimated <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="4.6 million Venezuelans " data-vars-click-url="https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/trumps-venezuelan-headache" data-vars-content-id="7400f9fa-895b-4c3f-a0d4-14808b7e3643" data-vars-headline="Global response to Venezuelan refugee crisis falling short" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/twt/trumps-venezuelan-headache" target="_blank">4.6 million Venezuelans </a>have fled their country since 2015. Their arrival has severely strained social services, housing and labor markets in host countries and in some cases has provoked xenophobic backlash.

National security adviser John Bolton's announcement on April 17 of additional sanctions on Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba marked another step in the attempt to tighten the noose around the countries he has dubbed the "Troika of Tyranny."

The big picture: Ahead of 2020, President Trump is trying to fuse the anti-communism of Cuban American voters with the frustrations of other Troika migrants who have fled repression and dysfunction. With regime change yet to take hold in Venezuela, the administration has begun to increase pressure on Cuba while tying together its policies toward both countries.

Background: Bolton has given his two major Latin America policy speeches in Miami, targeted in part at southern Florida's anti-communist Cuban Americans, who have helped deliver the state's 29 electoral votes to Republicans. But that community has diversified in recent years and supported Trump substantially less than past GOP presidential candidates.

Between the lines: The keystone of Bolton’s speech on April 17 — the 58th anniversary of the failed Bay of Pigs invasion — was the announcement that the White House would implement Title III of the 1996 Helms-Burton Act, which re-codified the Cuba embargo into law.

The provision allows American citizens, including naturalized Cuban–U.S. citizens, to bring suits in U.S. courts against foreign companies that have invested in assets confiscated by Fidel Castro after the revolution.

Canada, Spain, France and other U.S. allies oppose the provision and U.S. courts have questioned the legality of its extraterritorial overreach.

Since the law’s passage, both Democratic and Republican administrations have suspended Title III. The Trump administration’s intent to implement it threatens to alienate more than 50 coalition partners trying to force Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to step down.

The bottom line: Those governments will find it increasingly difficult to stand with a White House that has unilaterally opened the door to suits against their citizens and businesses. At the same time, Venezuelan and Nicaraguan American voters may see in this tighter embrace of the embargo — a 67-year-old policy that has failed to loosen the Castros' grip on power — the seeds of their own frustration.

Trump's tighter Cuba policies aim at Florida but could upset allies

A revived law would subject foreign owners of Cuban assets to U.S. lawsuits.

National security adviser John Bolton speaking in Coral Gables, Florida, on April 17. Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Latin America and Latinos

National security adviser John Bolton&#x27;s announcement on April 17 of additional sanctions on Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba marked another step in the attempt to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="tighten the noose" data-vars-click-url="https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/04/27/donald-trump-steps-up-pressure-on-venezuela-cuba-and-nicaragua" data-vars-content-id="cfc38a38-3af4-4610-b882-ae9e9c76711c" data-vars-headline="Trump&#x27;s tighter Cuba policies aim at Florida but could upset allies" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/04/27/donald-trump-steps-up-pressure-on-venezuela-cuba-and-nicaragua" target="_blank">tighten the noose</a> around the countries he has dubbed the &quot;Troika of Tyranny.&quot;The big picture: Ahead of 2020, President Trump is trying to fuse the anti-communism of Cuban American voters with the frustrations of other Troika migrants who have fled repression and dysfunction. With regime change yet to take hold in Venezuela, the administration has begun to increase pressure on Cuba while tying together its policies toward both countries.

Christopher Sabatini

Stories

Global response to Venezuelan refugee crisis falling short

Trump's tighter Cuba policies aim at Florida but could upset allies

Russian troops firm up support for Maduro, impeding U.S.-led efforts

U.S. action on Maduro informed by Florida's electoral politics

Trump risks escalating Cuba tensions by scrapping baseball deal