Context: The visit comes at a divisive moment around Israel among Democrats, highlighted by sparring between Rep. Ilhan Omar and senior Democratic lawmakers over her comments on the motivations of Israel supporters.

• Trump has exploited this dynamic, labeling the Democratic party “anti-Jewish,” even though 79% of Jews voted Democratic in 2018. Watch for Netanyahu to back him, putting Democrats further on the defensive.

Netanyahu's AIPAC speech is likely to focus on the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement — the group's top priority, after military aid to Israel and constraints on Iran. He may emphasize Israel's greater acceptance in the Arab world, but don’t expect much fanfare about the Palestinian issue.

Flashback: In March 2015, Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress and attacked President Barack Obama’s Iran diplomacy. That speech similarly doubled as a campaign ad for his re-election to the premiership.

Between the lines: Both leaders stand to gain from the visit, and Trump has given Netanyahu an additional boost by vowing to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. Yet there are critical policy issues in play that can't be papered over:

1. Iran continues to expand its reach in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. The Trump administration’s attempt to isolate Iran by withdrawing from the nuclear deal has been ineffective at best; by undermining alliances, it's left the U.S. and Israel more alone in their efforts.
2. Syria is dominated by Russia and Iran, with Assad firmly in power. Trump’s Golan Heights decision will create new tensions as military activity between Israel and Iran continues.
3. Jared Kushner's peace plan has no support from the Palestinians. While that will not advance Israel's long-term security, Netanyahu may benefit in the meantime, as his coalition partners panicked over reports Kushner could address “borders.” Now that Netanyahu has secured his most significant near-term ask — American recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital — prospects for two-state peacemaking under his leadership are dim.

The bottom line: Netanyahu's visit will likely do little to resolve Israel's most pressing security concerns, and could instead prioritize his political survival over policy.

Joel Rubin is president of the Washington Strategy Group and the former deputy assistant secretary of state for the House of Representatives.

Between the lines: This approach departs from those of past administrations, which perceived military action between these two nuclear-armed neighbors as a potential precursor to nuclear war.

• In 2001, for example, President Bush sent Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage to Islamabad for in-person negotiations around an India-Pakistan crisis that could have gone nuclear. That trip built on nearly a dozen direct calls between Secretary of State Colin Powell and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to iron out the crisis.
• Bush felt — as Trump appears not to — that the U.S. could not afford to sit out such a crisis, later referring to "the year that we had shuttle diplomacy to convince Pakistan and India not to go to war with each other."

To be sure, Trump has been busy: Currently, he’s meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi for the most promising denuclearization opportunity in years — this just after extending the ceasefire in the U.S.–China trade war and declaring a national emergency on the southern border.

The Trump administration also suffers from having a thin Pakistan diplomatic team at the State Department, with neither a Senate-confirmed assistant secretary of state for South Asia nor a special representative to Pakistan and Afghanistan (the current special representative is responsible solely for Afghanistan, following staffing changes made by former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson).

The bottom line: To help stop further escalation between India and Pakistan, Trump may need to become a diplomatic multitasker.

Joel Rubin is president of the Washington Strategy Group and the former deputy assistant secretary of state for the House of Representatives.

Details:

• Saudi Arabia: The killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi put the kingdom under the spotlight and galvanized bipartisan opposition to its war in Yemen, which Trump has supported. A bipartisan Senate vote to end American arms sales for the Saudi war in Yemen passed and the House will soon act — solidifying the rebuke of Trump’s position.
• The Middle East: Trump’s decision in December 2018 to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria and hints of doing the same in Afghanistan prompted a backlash, including the resignation of Jim Mattis over Syria. Congress snapped to, and the Senate last week passed a bipartisan measure opposing the withdrawals.
• Arms control: Congress has yet to address the administration's announced withdrawal from a Cold War-era nuclear arms treaty with Russia, but is typically loath to pull out of diplomatic agreements without replacements. Doing so can both trigger new security threats and undermine American credibility at future negotiating tables — a concern for North Korea talks.
• Russia: Congress has been vexed by zigzagging implementation of sanctions against Russia for election interference. While it failed to reverse Trump’s lifting of sanctions against companies linked to Putin-ally Oleg Deripaska, the vote attracted 11 Republicans.
• Venezuela: Trump has hewed to the congressionally supported line of opposition to President Nicolás Maduro. But too much talk of military action to remove Maduro could end that alignment.

Yes, but: On foreign policy issues with strong domestic support, such as military aid to Israel, the status quo persists in both Congress and the Trump administration, despite partisan attempts to claim otherwise.

What to watch: Russia will continue to be a flashpoint — with House Intelligence Committee hearings on election interference and Senate concerns about a new nuclear arms race — as could Defense and State Department authorization bills, if they set up conflicts over the Middle East or nuclear weapons policy.

Joel Rubin is president of the Washington Strategy Group and the former deputy assistant secretary of state for the House of Representatives.