Trump's shadow presidency clouds Biden's final weeks
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President-elect Trump's bombastic policy threats, Mar-a-Lago missives and mere presence have become a driving force in markets and capitals around the world, six weeks before Trump's inauguration.
Why it matters: Only one man occupies the White House. But the norm-busting assertiveness of Trump and his transition team — and the rapidly fading relevance of President Biden — have given the U.S. something of a two-headed presidency.
Driving the news: "Promises Kept," the Trump transition team boldly declared Monday, claiming achievements on border security, diplomacy, economic growth and anti-diversity initiatives — all before Trump has even taken office.
Reality check: The Trump effect is real. But posturing and preparation by companies, allies and adversaries don't tell the whole story of what his record will actually look like once his policies are implemented.
1. Borders: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rushed to Mar-a-Lago this weekend after Trump threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico in response to migrants and fentanyl crossing into the U.S.
- The two leaders dined together, and Trudeau promised to deploy additional helicopters and drones to help tighten up the northern border — earning praise from Trump.
- Trump also spoke with Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum and declared that she had agreed to effectively close the southern border — a message Sheinbaum contradicted in her own account of the call.
2. Foreign policy: Even as Biden officials have worked feverishly to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, incoming national security adviser Mike Waltz credited Trump with bringing them to the table.
- Trump's team also claimed credit for Iran's apparent decision not to retaliate against Israel for its October attack, touting the doctrine of "peace through strength."
- Trump, meanwhile, has fully re-engaged in diplomacy-by-tweet — promising "ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East" if the Gaza hostages aren't released before his inauguration on Jan. 20.
- Still, plenty of global hotspots — Syria, Ukraine, even South Korea — appear to be heating up, not cooling down, as Trump prepares to take office.
3. Economy: Trump loves nothing more than to take credit for a booming stock market, and there are plenty of indications his business-friendly agenda is preemptively powering record highs — especially in crypto.
- But Wall Street has been defying gravity for years now, and Trump is fortunate to be inheriting a remarkably strong economy from Biden — just as he inherited a strong economy from Barack Obama in 2017.
- One dynamic more directly connected to Trump's return is Walmart's staggering rollback of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives last week — a victory for MAGA activists years in the making.
- Trump on Monday also reiterated his campaign pledge to block the proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel by Japanese-owned Nippon Steel, sending shares of U.S. Steel tumbling.
Between the lines: Biden's relatively low profile since the election — aside from his controversial pardon of his son Hunter — has only compounded the feeling that Trump is already in power.
- On Monday, Biden arrived in Angola for a long-promised and delayed visit to sub-Saharan Africa — making him the first president to travel to the region since Obama in 2015.
- "Ladies and gentlemen, as you know, I'm in the final weeks of my presidency," Biden said in a speech touting his administration's commitment to Africa.
- "You don't have to clap for that. You can if you want," he joked.
