Stock market optimism keeps rising
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Where Wall Street analysts see caution, Americans see the good times rolling.
Why it matters: While it's a historically safe bet that stocks will rise over the long term, record bullish sentiment may signal more economic optimism than we've seen of late.
By the numbers: The largest share of consumers ever, at 56%, say the stock market will keep rising into next year, the Conference Board said yesterday — topping the previous monthly record we told you about in October.
The big picture: Strategists also anticipate higher stock prices in 2025, though how much higher is a point of contention. They warn that endless uncertainties — trade wars, economic slowdowns, Fed policy — could make markets more vulnerable than usual to a pullback.
Despite those risks, Americans no longer look to be in the economic funk that has prevailed in recent years.
- Consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, edged up by 2 points in November, near the highest level since 2022. That captures at least some post-election sentiment; the cutoff date for results was last week.
- Recession fears are fading, with the smallest share of consumers anticipating a near-term recession since the group began asking the question in 2022.
- The labor market outlook improved: A smaller share of consumers said jobs were hard to get. Optimism about job availability down the line is at the highest in 3 years.
Yes, but: It's not all rosy. The top concern among all income groups was high prices, followed by tax policy, geopolitical concerns and social unrest.
- While consumer confidence is up overall, it's not rising among the richest or poorest Americans.
The bottom line: None of those concerns are dimming the (usually correct) view that the stock market will keep chugging along.
