Ukraine's lame duck danger: Biden and Putin escalate before Trump arrives
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios. Photos: Chip Somodevilla and Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images, and Ukrinform/NurPhoto via Getty Images
The war in Ukraine has veered into volatile new territory, ignited by a final push — in Washington, Moscow and Kyiv — to change the game before President-elect Trump takes office.
Why it matters: There are 60 days until inauguration — the starting gun for Trump's improbable vow to end the war between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours.
- President Biden, whose foreign policy legacy is inextricably linked to Ukraine's fate, has suddenly ditched his own guardrails limiting Kyiv's use of U.S. weapons.
- Russia has responded by rattling its nuclear saber — sparking MAGA fears of "World War III" and testing Trump's warning to Vladimir Putin not to escalate the conflict.
Driving the news: Tensions between Moscow and the West have reached new heights over the last several days.
- Following a policy reversal by Biden, Ukraine used American-made long-range missiles, known as ATACMS, to strike inside of Russia on Tuesday for the first time.
- A day later, Ukraine hit Russia with Storm Shadow long-range missiles supplied by the U.K., whose Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been taking his cues from Biden.
Putin responded by formally lowering the threshold for Russia to consider the use of nuclear weapons — namely against enemies supported by nuclear powers.
- Russia on Sunday also launched one of its largest air attacks since the start of the war, bombarding Ukraine's power grid with hundreds of missiles and drones.
- The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv closed Wednesday for the first time since 2022, issuing a shelter-in-place advisory for American citizens in anticipation of a "potential significant air attack."
The latest: The Biden administration is surging another $275 million weapons package to Ukraine that will include — for the first time — anti-personnel mines to repel Russian ground advances in the east.
Between the lines: Trump allies have reacted with disgust at Biden's latest moves to help Ukraine, suggesting the outgoing president is engaging in sabotage and needless escalation.
- "No one anticipated that Joe Biden would ESCALATE the war in Ukraine during the transition period," tweeted Richard Grenell, a former Trump official shortlisted for secretary of State. "This is as if he is launching a whole new war."
- "It's another step up the escalation ladder, and nobody knows where this is going," Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), Trump's incoming national security adviser, told Fox News in response to Biden's shift on ATACMS.
State of play: Both Russia and Ukraine are fighting for every inch of territory, desperate to improve their negotiating position ahead of peace talks promised by Trump.
- Russia is making incremental territorial gains and Ukraine is clinging to a sliver of territory inside Russia's Kursk region — where 10,000 North Korean troops have now been deployed as mercenaries for Moscow.
What to watch: Reuters reports that Putin is open to discussing a ceasefire deal with Trump that would broadly freeze the current lines of control, in addition to Ukraine abandoning its goal of joining NATO.
- Ukrainian officials are also preparing to take part in negotiations, though they doubt Trump's promise of a swift deal.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged in an interview with Fox News this week that his country would likely "lose" the war if the U.S. cut off aid, as Trump has threatened.
- But Zelensky also held out hope that Trump can influence Putin to end the bloodshed: "It will not be simple ... but yes he can because he is much more stronger than Putin."
