Ukraine's strike on a Russian tanker in the Black Sea — a major commodity transit route — heightens the conflict's potential to further upend global energy flows.
It followed Friday's reported Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian warship near Novorossiysk, a key oil hub that includes offloading from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium that includes Russia.
Why it matters: "If they continue, strikes on Black Sea tankers could pose meaningful risks to global supplies," the research firm ClearView Energy Partners said in a note.
The Black Sea is involved in an estimated 15% to 20% of oil exports from Russia, per Bloomberg.
Yes, but: Prices rose only slightly in the first trading after the tanker attack, adding to gains last week.
The global benchmark Brent crude is trading in the mid-$85 per barrel range Monday morning after initially climbing above $86.
Prices are at their highest levels since mid-April.
What they're saying: Atlantic Council energy expert Olga Khakova said it could add to insurance and shipping costs for transit through the area.
The war has already added a geopolitical premium to energy prices, but this creates "additional risk that's coming in as a result of Ukraine's actions."
The intrigue: Khakova sees the Ukrainian action giving Russia a "taste of its own medicine."
Khakova notes Moscow had initially hoped that Europe's and some other regions' reliance on Russian supplies would limit support for Ukraine.
She also points out Vladimir Putin has sought to "weaponize" gas exports and hold European nations hostage.
"Now Ukraine is taking charge and being proactive about hitting Russia where it hurts most," she said, referring to its oil exports.
What we're watching: "A key question is whether the foreign-owned tankers on which Russia depends to get its oil to market are deterred from operating in the Black Sea altogether," The Wall Street Journal reports.
The bottom line: The tanker strike was Kyiv's "strongest message to date that it is willing to target Moscow's all-important shipments of oil and fuel," Politico reports from Ukraine.