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Race and voting: The path forward

National

Voter turnout across every racial and ethnic group rose in 2020 — but the 2022 midterm elections will present new hurdles for activists trying to prevent a sharp drop-off among voters of color.

They're building on 2020 by pushing for laws that would make it easier for all people to vote in the 2022 midterms — hoping that will increase the chances for people of color to be counted.

Why it matters: That’s driving hundreds of bills in dozens of states aimed at permanently expanding early voting periods, easing identification requirements, restoring rights to people formerly incarcerated and making it easier to register or obtain mail-in ballots.

Most of these bills are passing only in blue states. At the same time, red states are passing legislation that makes voting more difficult or that could lead to more ballots being rejected.

That could make voting this year a far bigger challenge for voters of color in some states.

The big picture: After federal voting rights legislation stalled in Congress, state lawmakers and activists are moving ahead with their own efforts.

Some voter turnout in 2020 was driven by former President Trump — who isn’t on the ballot this time. And midterm elections historically draw smaller turnout than presidential years.

By the numbers: The Brennan Center for Justice counts at least 32 states that could consider legislation this year to expand voting access. Last year, 62 laws were passed in 25 states with such provisions.

But 19 states have already imposed stricter voting rules — including Texas, where thousands of mail-in ballots were rejected ahead of the March 1 primary as voters were tripped up by new identification requirements.

And lawmakers in 27 states are sponsoring new voting restrictions, per the Brennan Center.

Advocates say they've seen an impact from making formerly incarcerated people eligible to vote. In 2016, more than 6 million people were disenfranchised due to a prior felony conviction, according to the Sentencing Project. That number was down to 5.2 million as of 2020.

Groups like MOVE Texas are identifying steps to recommend to local county officials on how to better inform voters or lessen the impact of harsh new state laws, spokesperson Charlie Bonner tells Axios.

A group called Florida Rising has been engaging voters of color in their state by talking about democracy expansion and voting rights along with issues like housing and criminal justice. In 2020, they say, 3,000 first-time voters or people who had to renew their voter registration cast a ballot.

"The education aspect of this is critical," Bonner says. "It's not sexy ... but it is trying to build trust with voters so that when they have problems, they know there are people they can go to."

What they're saying: 2020's record turnout numbers in communities of color was not "about hurdles having been lowered," says Sean Morales-Doyle of the Brennan Center. The key, he said, was "factors that allowed people to clear them.”

Anti-Trump sentiment was a big motivation, for example. But Morales-Doyle also cited sweeping investment from political parties and organizations — both in juicing turnout in communities that have faced historic barriers as well as educating voters on new options for casting a pandemic ballot.

Between the lines: In 2020, advocates had to do a lot of educating people on the mechanics of voting by mail or absentee — something unfamiliar but available to more people than ever during that cycle because of the pandemic.  

This time around, advocates and election administrators are again having to inform voters about new voting restrictions — like the ones in Texas — to ensure their votes are counted.

Several are still figuring out their 2022 playbook right now, given the quickly changing politics of voting rights in Washington and across GOP state legislatures.

What to watch: Since 2020, George Soros' Open Society Foundations has pledged about $300 million over the next five years in support of national, state and local groups focused on caring for and protecting the right to vote in communities of color.

Martin Luther King III and his wife Arndrea Waters King have organized marches and advocated for legislation. They also run an organization called Give Us The Ballot, which has raised about $2 million for voting rights organizations, they tell Axios.

But "there's a part of me that resents that when it comes to Black and brown people, we always have to out-organize," Arndrea King says. "When will we have access to what this country promises?"

The bottom line:  "We never saw this as a sprint," King III tells Axios. "We're always hopeful that something can be done very quickly, but we always knew this was a marathon."

1. The new voting urgency for 2022

After a 2020 surge in non-white voter turnout, there are new hurdles for the midterms.

Illustration of a voting booth at the center of a crossroads. 

Deep Dive: Hard Truths - Voting

Voter turnout across every racial and ethnic group rose in 2020 — but the 2022 midterm elections will present new hurdles for activists trying to prevent a sharp drop-off among voters of color.<ul><li>They&#x27;re building on 2020 by pushing for laws that would make it easier for all people to vote in the 2022 midterms — hoping that will increase the chances for people of color to be counted.</li></ul>

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Data: U.S. Census; Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios

2. Charted: Trump years brought voting surge

There were big increases in 2018 and 2020 as overall turnout rose.

Democrats are sketching out plans — and soliciting funds — to prevent future efforts to undermine and reverse legitimate U.S. elections, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The slow death of landmark voting rights legislation this year dealt a huge blow to progressive election reform efforts. Some leaders in the space are sketching out a "Plan B."

They're briefing high-dollar donors on the initiatives and organizations that need funding.

They are strategizing efforts to elect thousands of local election administrators across the country.

And they are working to sideline conservative legal forces integral to former President Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election.

Driving the news: The newest effort is a plan to elect 5,000 "pro-democracy" election administrators to local posts across the country.

The initiative, unveiled this week, is called Clerk Work.

Prominent progressive groups, including Run For Something and Open Democracy PAC, are spearheading the effort.

A Tuesday unveiling event also featured remarks from prominent Democratic elections lawyer Marc Elias and Guy Cecil, who chairs the super PAC Priorities USA.

None of the individuals or organizations involved responded to Axios' requests for more information.

Clerk Work is being pitched as progressives' "plan B for democracy," according to an email last week promoting the event.

It promises to "fight back against the anti-democratic forces that are seeking to undermine our national elections at the local level."

Between the lines: Racial justice advocates have noted that Trump-led conspiracy theories focused on cities like Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta and Milwaukee as supposed hotbeds of vote manipulation. They say that focus underscores what they see as the racial nature of election subversion efforts.

"Who exactly was assumed too incompetent to run a clean election or crime-prone and disloyal enough to intentionally manipulate the system? It was Black elections officials and voters in Black population centers," said NAACP president Sherrilyn Ifill during congressional testimony in January.

What they're saying: "I think voters of color have a lot to fear from unfair election administration," said Rick Hasen, a U.C. Irvine law professor and the author of "Election Meltdown: Dirty Tricks, Distrust, and the Threat to American Democracy."

"In the 2016 and 2020 elections, efforts to disenfranchise and demobilize voters were targeted at minorities, especially African Americans. Disinformation related to voting circulated in Chinese and Spanish on WeChat, WhatsApp, etc.," Hasen tells Axios.

He also pointed to Trump rhetoric surrounding the election. "When President Trump falsely claimed voter fraud cost him the 2020 election, he targeted cities with large minority populations."

The big picture: Clerk Works' unveiling comes as high-dollar progressive donors strategize how to build a political and policy infrastructure to oppose election subversion efforts.

Some of those donors huddled on a virtual conference call last week to discuss the challenges.

"Since the unsuccessful attempts to undermine the election certification process in 2020 into 2021, the threat of election sabotage by actors involved in certifying or administering elections has only deepened," warned the Democracy Funders Network, which organized the call, in an email invitation.

As progressives work to build up their own infrastructure, they're also taking aim at institutions and individuals on the right seen as integral to Trump-led efforts to undermine the last presidential election.

Axios reported last week on the formation of a new initiative, dubbed The 65 Project, to disbar more than 100 attorneys who worked in some fashion to overturn 2020 election results.

3. Dems try to preempt post-election fights

They're strategizing how to elect thousands of local election administrators.

Photo illustration of voters, a handshake and money.

Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photos: Cheriss May/NurPhoto, Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images

Democrats are sketching out plans — and soliciting funds — to prevent future efforts to undermine and reverse legitimate U.S. elections, Axios has learned.Why it matters: The slow death of landmark voting rights legislation this year dealt a huge blow to progressive election reform efforts. Some leaders in the space are sketching out a &quot;Plan B.&quot;

Atlanta

Axios Atlanta

ATLANTA — The voter engagement movement Stacey Abrams spearheaded has proven so successful that it has inspired new groups built on her model and made fundraising easier for others.

Why it matters: That voting turnout infrastructure will be stress-tested once again this year as Democrats — including Abrams in her own second run for governor — seek to prove the high turnout of voters of color last cycle wasn't just a former President Trump-related fluke.

And they'll do so amid new Republican-written voting rules and limits on absentee ballot voting. 

The big picture: Abrams says the rise of similar groups was part of the plan. In an interview, she tells Axios that, in fact, she intended "to build things that are replicable and exportable."

Groups like the New North Carolina Project and the New Pennsylvania Project are trying to duplicate her success in Georgia by working to expand their states' electorate, targeting voters of color and low propensity voters. 

Even Republicans are trying to learn from her model. Former GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler founded Greater Georgia with that mission last year.

At the time, Loeffler noted that in 2020, "We had tremendous efforts in terms of the ground game ... [b]ut what we saw on the other side of the ballot was even more. They had thousands more staffers, thousands more volunteers."

There's also been a benefit for other Georgia groups that report easier access to money and donors thanks to Abrams, directly or indirectly. 

Steve Phillips, a San Francisco-based Democratic donor and early Abrams supporter, tells Axios that Abrams' involvement with a group "automatically just elevates the group in my mind."

Helen Butler, longtime director of the Georgia Coalition for the People's Agenda — which has been organizing voters of color for nearly 25 years — confirms she's been able to access new funding sources because Georgia has "been in the spotlight," thanks in large part to Abrams' messaging. 

The backstory: Abrams and her New Georgia Project didn't just register and organize voters — they changed Georgia's progressive landscape.

"In 2014, you could count on your hands and toes the number of groups that were doing this work. That's not possible anymore," said Nsé Ufot, who has been leading the group since 2014. 

How it works: Armed with data showing the untapped potential of Georgia's voters of color, Abrams took her message to donors and raised $4 million in 2014 alone.

The funds fueled a statewide, data-informed effort to hire professionals to go door to door, get people registered, and then talk to the voters who campaigns were ignoring to convince them to actually vote. 

One key was persistence: Ufot said it takes 14 contacts to convert a new registrant into a voter.

Another was targeted engagement. "What we found was that voter education was the difference," said Abrams. "It's like handing someone the keys to a car but never teaching them to drive."

That means researching each message sent to a voter. For example, Ufot said, "We had to do fish fries on Fridays and focus groups and polling to understand what would convince a formerly incarcerated person that they indeed could register to vote again."

The other side: While Georgia Republicans acknowledge the power of Abrams' voter engagement work, they often credit the voter registration surge to the automatic driver registration policy Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp implemented in 2016. (Some Georgia Democrats have made the same point.)

Ufot, however, responds it's not enough just to get people registered — it's about engaging them so they actually vote.

4. The Stacey Abrams blueprint

She's inspired new voting group models and made fundraising easier.

Photo illustration of Stacey Abrams with abstract shapes.

Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photo: Cheriss May/NurPhoto via Getty Images

ATLANTA — The voter engagement movement Stacey Abrams spearheaded has proven so successful that it has inspired new groups built on her model and made fundraising easier for others.Why it matters: That voting turnout infrastructure will be stress-tested once again this year as Democrats — including Abrams in her own second run for governor — seek to prove the high turnout of voters of color last cycle wasn&#x27;t just a former President Trump-related fluke.

Latino

Axios Latino

Native American voting rights advocates from the Navajo Nation to Rosebud Sioux aren't just waiting for federal legislation to protect Indigenous voters. They are taking pages from Black civil rights activists to organize Native American voters themselves. 

Why it matters: The small percentage of Native Americans is forcing advocates to aggressively build coalitions with Latinos and Black activists to avoid being ignored any longer. 

The intrigue: To bring attention to Native American voting rights, Indigenous people have joined Black Lives Matter protests, marched for immigrant rights, and spoken out against violence toward Asian Americans, Nick Tilsen, president and CEO of NDN Collective and a citizen of the Oglala Lakota Nation, tells Axios.

Tilsen says that as a coalition, the various groups can band together as a larger bloc in the fight against white supremacy.

People also will learn more about Native American issues, he says. "To some people we are invisible, but we're still here."

Native Americans backed bills like the comprehensive Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act in solidarity with Black and Latino Americans.

Also: Tribal governments are confronting their past with Black Americans and showing they're doing the work on their end to fight past discrimination.

Cherokee Nation last year launched the Cherokee Freedmen History Project to elevate the voices of descendants of formerly enslaved Black people once owned by tribal members.

Advocates say initiatives like these send the message that Indigenous people want to work with other groups of color and give them the chance to discuss voting rights.

The backstory: A surge in Native American voter participation in 2020 helped President Biden win close races in Arizona and Wisconsin.

That followed a jump in Native Americans going to the polls in 2018, when 61% of Indigenous voters reported voting for a Democratic candidate for Congress — helping Democrats recapture the House.

The increase came after get-out-the-vote drives by tribal governments and voting rights advocates, along with programs collecting ballots.

The reaction: Since 2020, several states with GOP-controlled legislatures have passed bills that critics argue impose new restrictions on Indigenous voters.

Arizona and Montana have passed new laws barring ballot collection, which is important to Native American voters living in isolated regions lacking reliable mail service.

Last year, Arizona also passed legislation limiting where in-person ballots can be cast, despite confusion among many rural Navajo Nation residents whose precincts are a two-hour drive from their homes.

Some GOP proposals seek to impose new address requirements, notwithstanding the fact that many Native Americans live in homes without street addresses.

The big picture: The restrictions have prompted Native American advocates and tribes to get behind a bill pushed by Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) that would ensure Native Americans, Alaska Natives, and voters living on tribal lands can easily register and cast their vote.

If enacted, the Native American Voting Rights Act would allow Tribes to specify the number and locations of requested voter registration sites, drop boxes, and polling locations on Tribal lands, and authorize Tribal ID cards for voting purposes.

What they're saying: "We don't have a baseline of voting rights for Native American people in this country. ... Satellite voting centers are key," says Tilsen.

The other side: U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said Luján's proposal goes too far and would leave states vulnerable to fraud on tribal lands.

“I agree that we should vigorously protect every American's right to vote. But unfortunately this bill … would expand voter fraud rather than combat it," Cruz said at a hearing in October.

But Oliver Semans, co-executive director of the Indigenous voting rights group Four Directions, says Native Americans aren't sitting around campfires, trading stories and coming up with ideas on how to commit voter fraud.

5. Native Americans build voting coalitions

They're taking pages from Black civil rights activists to organize voters.

Native American voting rights advocates from the <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Navajo Nation" data-vars-click-url="https://www.navajo-nsn.gov/" data-vars-content-id="565416f6-0e55-4fe7-b64b-491fbc6013f7" data-vars-headline="Native Americans build voting coalitions" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.navajo-nsn.gov/" target="_blank">Navajo Nation</a> to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Rosebud Sioux" data-vars-click-url="https://www.rosebudsiouxtribe-nsn.gov/" data-vars-content-id="565416f6-0e55-4fe7-b64b-491fbc6013f7" data-vars-headline="Native Americans build voting coalitions" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.rosebudsiouxtribe-nsn.gov/" target="_blank">Rosebud Sioux</a> aren&#x27;t just waiting for federal legislation to protect Indigenous voters. They are taking pages from Black civil rights activists to organize Native American voters themselves. Why it matters: The small percentage of Native Americans is forcing advocates to aggressively build coalitions with Latinos and Black activists to avoid being ignored any longer.