Axios AM Deep Dive: America’s murder surge

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2020 saw a historic rise in homicides in the U.S. — the vast majority committed with a gun — and the upward trend is continuing in 2021.

Why it matters: The murder surge represents a sharp break from decades of reductions in violent, gun-driven crime in the U.S., and experts are divided on what caused the increase — and therefore, what to do about it. 

Curbing the rise in shootings will require addressing the root causes of violence, while mending social trust between the communities most at risk and the police.

 What we're hearing: Both political parties recognize the issue's power.

John Feinblatt — president of Everytown for Gun Safety, which calls itself America's largest gun violence prevention organization — tells Axios: "As a political issue, gun safety helped elected gun-sense majorities in both houses of Congress and the White House, and will only grow in its power as we seek to send gun lobby allies packing."

By the numbers: Provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control's National Center for Health Statistics released earlier this month indicates that the murder rate rose 30% between 2019 and 2020.

That's the highest increase in recorded history. Only the 20% spike between 2000 and 2001 comes close, and that's chiefly due to the nearly 3,000 people killed in the 9/11 attacks. 

Murders are still rising in 2021, though at a slower pace: Data from Jeff Asher at AH Datalytics indicates that homicides in 91 big cities are up 9.1% year to date, with fewer than 35% of cities recording a drop from 2020 so far. 

That puts the U.S. on pace for close to a 50% increase in murders compared to two years ago, says Aaron Chalfin, a criminologist at the University of Pennsylvania. "It's wiped out maybe 20 years of progress in reducing homicides."

Yes, but: The homicide rate was 7.8 per 100,000 people in 2020, according to the CDC — still well below the peak of 10 homicides per 100,000 in the early 1980s.

And the crime increase of 2020 was almost solely concentrated in homicides and shootings — a report released last month by the moderate Democratic group Third Way found the overall crime rate, including property crimes like burglaries, continued to fall in 2020. 

The big picture: There is widespread disagreement among criminologists about the factors behind the 2020 murder surge, not to mention about what caused violent crime to climb in the 1960s and fall in the 1990s. 

"The pandemic shut down the operations of the criminal justice system in an important way, from police stopping people to the workings of the courts," says Jen Ludwig, director of the University of Chicago Crime Lab.

Beyond the criminal justice system, the very fabric of community life — everything from schools to businesses to organizations dedicated to curbing violence — was unable to function, leading to what Princeton University criminologist Patrick Sharkey calls a "feeling of people being left on their own in public spaces, creating the conditions for violence."

There's also strong evidence of a pullback of policing following the protests sparked by the murder of George Floyd. In Philadelphia, which this year is on track for a record number of homicides, data gathered by ProPublica indicates that police vehicle and pedestrian stops declined by more than two-thirds from late May to mid-June last year.

As the police pulled back, so did communities. A recent working paper from Desmond Ang at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government found the number of 911 calls made for every gun death or injury fell by nearly half after Floyd's killing on May 25.

What they're saying: "It's all part of a larger legitimacy crisis," says Justin Nix, a criminologist at the University of Nebraska. "The police pull back, citizens feel less inclined to report crimes to the police, and a small subset of the population that is more inclined to criminally offend maybe feels emboldened enough to offend more."

Between the lines: The U.S. had more than one gun per person even before the pandemic, but FBI background checks for firearms spiked as the pandemic took off in March 2020 and set a record for the year as a whole.

Some of those guns end up as the main instruments in violent crime — FBI statistics show 77% of the homicides in 2020 were committed with a gun, up from 74% in 2019 and the highest percentage on record. 

But beyond the sheer number of guns is how readily available they were. Police stops in Chicago dropped 85% between January and June 2020, but police were more than twice as likely to recover an illegal gun during those stops.

"There's compelling evidence that gun carrying in public places last year was up, not just buying," says Nix.

What to watch: Violent crime itself can spread like a virus, as one murder leads to others, notes John Roman of NORC at the University of Chicago.

"There's a lot of trauma, and a lot of desire for retaliation," he says. "Retaliation creates its own cycle, and we're still in the middle of that cycling."

Editor's note: This story has been updated to clarify that the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago is known as NORC at the University of Chicago. 

1. America’s murder surge

The pandemic, policing, and declining social trust all drove a homicide spike that hasn't ebbed yet

Photo illustration of a city skyline with gun violence victims embracing in the foreground and police in the background

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Kerem Yucel and Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images

Deep Dive - Gun Violence

2020 saw a historic rise in homicides in the U.S. — the vast majority committed with a gun — and the upward trend is continuing in 2021.Why it matters: The murder surge represents a sharp break from decades of reductions in violent, gun-driven crime in the U.S., and experts are divided on what caused the increase — and therefore, what to do about it.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Between Oct. 14-20, more than 300 people around the U.S. died by gunshot, according to statistics from the Gun Violence Archive. 

Why it matters: Whether by homicide, suicide or accident, each life lost to a gun ripples out into the community, leaving a hole in surviving friends and family members that can never be filled.

Details: In Philadelphia, that number includes 66-year-old Jeffrey Carter, who on Oct. 18 became the 439th person murdered in the city this year, Axios Local reporter Michael D'Onofrio writes.

Carter was killed by a stray bullet while driving past a high school in an incident that also left a 16-year-old critically wounded. 

In Denver, which has recorded 78 homicides so far this year, 33-year-old Robert Lee Phillips was shot to death in front of his 10-year-old son on Oct. 15, notes Axios Local reporter Alayna Alvarez.

In Rochester, 19-year-old Christian Santiago was shot to death on Oct. 20, becoming the city's 64th homicide victim, in a year that is shaping up to be the upstate New York town's deadliest year on record.

The bottom line: More than 45,000 people died because of guns in 2020, including suicides, a nearly 15% increase from the year before.

2. The deadly toll of a week in guns

More than 300 people were killed by guns between Oct. 14 and 20.

Photo illustration of a memorial dedicated to victims of gun violence.

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photos: Mario Tama/Getty Images, Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images

Between Oct. 14-20, more than 300 people around the U.S. died by gunshot, according to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="statistics from the Gun Violence Archive" data-vars-click-url="https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/" data-vars-content-id="918b6bd4-53d5-43c0-9d2a-ee2638045dd2" data-vars-headline="The deadly toll of a week in guns" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/" target="_blank">statistics from the Gun Violence Archive</a>. Why it matters: Whether by homicide, suicide or accident, each life lost to a gun ripples out into the community, leaving a hole in surviving friends and family members that can never be filled.

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Chart: Will Chase/Axios

A majority of Americans mistakenly believes that violent crime is worse now than it was 30 years ago, according to an Axios/Ipsos poll. 

Why it matters: Polarization and misinformation are driving competing narratives about how much to fear rising crime, what's causing it, what to do about it and how much to prioritize it as an issue in the 2022 midterms.

Republicans are much more likely to blame reduced police funding and Democratic politicians for recent spikes.

Democrats are more likely to blame the economic downturn and too many guns.

Between the lines: Americans absorbed recently released FBI data showing that violent crime, including murder, has jumped since the start of the pandemic, with a historic one-year spike in 2020 data compared with that of 2019.

But many missed this important context: Even the higher numbers in 2020, and so far for 2021, are significantly lower than those of the late 1980s and early 1990s.

By the numbers: 64% of overall respondents said there are more reports of violent crime in the U.S. this year than last year. And preliminary crime stats largely bear out that finding.

There was little difference in how Republicans, Democrats or independents answered that question.

But 58% of overall respondents inaccurately believed violent crime is worse now than 30 years ago. That was true for about two-thirds of Republicans and a little more than half of Democrats.

Context: Partisan divisions quickly appeared when those who believe violent crime went up were asked to identify the main causes.

54% of Democrats saw loose gun laws as a main cause, compared to just 8% of Republicans. 

85% of Democrats said tighter gun control restrictions would have at least a minor impact on reducing gun violence and violent crime; 53% of Republican respondents said that would have no impact at all.

58% of Republicans — but just 14% of Democrats — said reduced police funding was a main cause.

Fact check: While the 50 largest U.S. cities cut their 2021 police budgets 5.2% in aggregate, according to data compiled by Bloomberg CityLab, law enforcement's share of general expenditures actually rose slightly. 

The intrigue: A majority of respondents reported feeling at least somewhat safe in their own communities, while Black and Hispanic respondents were less likely to feel safe, and more likely to express concerns about crime and violence, than white respondents.

What they're saying: Chris Jackson, Ipsos pollster and senior vice president, said the fact that most Americans feel largely safe in their own communities but are deeply divided on the causes of and responses to violent crime shows that issue "has been pushed into a national partisan framing."

"It's really an abstract issue for most people, and their views about it are defined by the media they consume."

Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos poll was conducted Oct. 14-20 by Ipsos KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,246 general population adults age 18 or older. The sample includes 310 Republicans, 407 Democrats and 425 independents.

 The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. 

3. Axios-Ipsos poll: Dueling crime narratives

Republicans blame reducing police funding, while Democrats blame guns.

A majority of Americans mistakenly believes that violent crime is worse now than it was 30 years ago, according to an <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Axios/Ipsos poll" data-vars-click-url="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/axios-Violent-Crime-2021" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/axios-Violent-Crime-2021" target="_blank">Axios/Ipsos poll</a>. Why it matters: Polarization and misinformation are driving competing narratives about how much to fear rising crime, what&#x27;s causing it, what to do about it and how much to prioritize it as an issue in the 2022 midterms.

Data: FBI, Kansas Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Census Bureau; Chart: Jared Whalen/Axios

Even as the nation's homicide rate jumped in 2020 amid rising gun violence, the murder rate in 11 of the largest communities along the U.S. border stayed below the national average, an Axios analysis found. 

Why it matters: The wide disparity between majority-Mexican American and Mexican immigrant border communities and other similar-size cities further north conflicts with images and myths of the U.S.-Mexico border as a region filled with crime and disarray. 

New FBI statistics show some cities along the southern U.S. border had a murder rate 10 times lower than northern cities of the same size.

By the numbers: The Axios analysis using FBI data and the 2020 census found 11 border communities from San Diego to Brownsville, Texas, had a homicide rate of 4.1 per 100,000 residents — well below the national average. 

Del Rio, Texas — a city of nearly 36,000 people, where mounted Border Patrol agents were seen charging at Haitian migrants last month — had a murder rate of 2.8. Lima, Ohio, a city nearly the same size in population, had a homicide rate of 32.9.

The border communities of Sunland Park, New Mexico; Nogales, Arizona; and Calexico, California, reported no homicides in 2020.

Yes, but: The Axios analysis found the 11 border communities did see a small increase in the homicide rate in 2020 from the previous year when it was 3.7 — well below the national average of 5.1 then.

In addition, Yuma, Arizona, remained the exception to the rest of the border cities around violent crime. The city of about 100,000 had a murder rate of 11 people per 100,000 residents.

But, but, but: The latest FBI numbers on the 11 border communities are consistent with previous years that showed those cities annually have a much lower violent crime rate than the rest of the country.

San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria tells Axios the border city benefits from its diversity and binational relationships in the public and private sectors. 

"These partnerships are essential to keeping our border region a safe and thriving environment,” Gloria said.

What they're saying: "I think people conflate different types of chaos [on the border] with people crossing and being apprehended ... with crime. And that's not true," Alex Nowrasteh, director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, told Axios.

Nowrasteh says the presence of the largest federal law enforcement agency along the border, as well as the research-supported fact that various studies show immigrants as less likely to commit crimes overall, help explain the region's consistently low murder rates.

The rise in homicides nationally has little to do with immigrants, Nowrasteh said. "Basically, the surge in crime last year is among the native-born only."

4. Murder rates in border cities lower than national average

Majority-Mexican American and Mexican immigrant border cities didn't see a big jump in homicides.

Pedestrians walk along Fifth Avenue in the Gaslamp District of downtown San Diego at night.

Latin America and Latinos

Even as the nation&#x27;s homicide rate jumped in 2020 amid rising gun violence, the murder rate in 11 of the largest communities along the U.S. border stayed below the national average, an Axios analysis found. Why it matters: The wide disparity between majority-Mexican American and Mexican immigrant border communities and other similar-size cities further north conflicts with images and myths of the U.S.-Mexico border as a region filled with crime and disarray.

Data: Giffords Law Center; Chart: Will Chase/Axios. Note: Bills under same category can have varying levels of strength. 

Federal gun control proposals have stalled out, but 44 states and the District of Columbia have enacted around 200 gun and community violence-related laws this year, according to data from the gun safety group Giffords Law Center provided to Axios.

Why it matters: Firearm purchases have spiked, with the FBI conducting a record number of firearm background checks last year. President Biden launched efforts to prevent gun violence, but Congress hasn't budged, leaving it to the states to set their own gun laws.

Democrats and a handful of Republicans in the House passed two gun safety bills earlier this year, but they've lost momentum. The bills would face a bigger challenge in the 50-50 Senate.

"When it comes to gun safety, the states are largely the leaders," Adzi Vokhiwa, Giffords' federal affairs director, told Axios. She said she has noticed more bills being introduced in Congress — on both sides of the debate — based on newer state gun programs and laws.

Be smart: Not all state laws are created equal. Of the roughly 200 passed this year, some will have sweeping impacts, such as a first-of-its-kind law in New York that makes it easier to sue gun manufacturers.

Only categories considered by Giffords Law Center to be true victories for gun-safety or pro-gun rights advocates were included in the chart above. 

By the numbers: In 2021, 23 states and Washington, D.C. passed major gun safety-related laws, while 16 states passed impactful laws backed by pro-gun lobbying groups.

Three states — Texas, Tennessee and Utah — enacted at least one measure in both categories. Tennessee passed police reform and funded community violence intervention, but also passed laws allowing adults to carry guns without a permit and the state government to nullify federal gun laws. 

Eleven other states have also enacted laws that — with varying enforcement mechanisms — discourage or prevent police from acting on certain federal gun laws (nullification).

Arkansas, North Dakota and Ohio this year joined 27 other states who have passed Stand Your Ground or Shoot First laws, which allow people to use deadly force in self-defense without having to retreat first. 

15 states have enacted police reforms, which are tied to reducing community violence.

Colorado passed a law allowing local governments to impose additional gun safety measures (preemption repeal), and Virginia and Oregon also passed similar, though more limited measures. 

Between the lines: The partisan divide is clear. The majority of states that passed major gun safety measures this year had Democratic-controlled state legislatures, while every state that passed significant gun rights laws were Republican-controlled. 

5. The battle over state gun laws

45 states have enacted around 200 gun and community violence laws this year.

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios. Photos: George Frey/AFP via Getty Images

Federal gun control proposals have stalled out, but 44 states and the District of Columbia have enacted around 200 gun and community violence-related laws this year, according to data from the gun safety group Giffords Law Center provided to Axios.Why it matters: Firearm purchases have spiked, with the FBI conducting <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="a record number" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/gun-background-check-fbi-record-b3558ee0-ae91-40d4-95fc-43f9d0926d37.html" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/gun-background-check-fbi-record-b3558ee0-ae91-40d4-95fc-43f9d0926d37.html" target="_self">a record number</a> of firearm background checks last year. President Biden <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="launched efforts" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/biden-gun-violence-initiatives-1574beb1-7f16-4fe3-ac94-e7361945b166.html" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/biden-gun-violence-initiatives-1574beb1-7f16-4fe3-ac94-e7361945b166.html" target="_self">launched efforts</a> to prevent gun violence, but Congress hasn&#x27;t budged, leaving it to the states to set their own gun laws.

America's crime statistics, especially around guns, are a mess — and they could soon be worse.

Why it matters: Without dependable, uniform numbers about the state of violent crime in the U.S., it's difficult to know what to do about it.

What's happening: Earlier this week the Department of Justice released the annual National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which along with September's Uniform Crime Report (UCR) from the FBI, is one of the two main sources of national data about crime in the U.S.

But those two reports tell a different story — while the FBI found homicides increased by nearly 30% in 2020 and violent crime overall by 5%, the NCVS reported the total violent victimization level fell by 22%.

How it works: The UCR is a collection of crime statistics recorded by many — though not all — of the 18,000 police agencies scattered around the country, while the NCVS is a survey of crime victims.

The NCVS doesn't include homicides — as there are no surviving victims to survey — and the UCR only includes crimes recorded by the police, which leaves out an estimated 60% of violent victimizations that are not reported to authorities. 

Yes, but: While it's not unusual for the two reports to provide different conclusions, the discrepancies for 2020 are particularly stark, and indicative of larger problems with the way the U.S. tracks shootings and violent crime.

Only about 85% of the nation's police agencies report data to the UCS, and many of those agencies still rely on antiquated paper recordkeeping.

The accuracy of the NCVS depends on its ability to find victims and get them to talk honestly about their experience with crime — a task that can be difficult enough in normal years, and even harder during a pandemic that curtailed in-person interviews for months. 

Philip Cook, a criminologist at Duke University, has estimated the NCVS captures perhaps a third of all non-fatal shootings. "People who are shot non-fatally are often difficult to include, either to locate them or to actually get them to talk," he says.

While virtually no one doubts the homicide surge was real — bodies are hard to hide — the numbers are much murkier on non-fatal violent crime. But other sources indicate that shootings spiked sharply in 2020.

Most people with gunshot wounds will seek medical care even if they won't go to the police, notes Cook, and hospital data from the Epic Health Research Network shows documented firearm injuries began spiking in the late spring of 2020 and peaked last October at 73% higher than the monthly average in the previous two years. 

The big picture: Federal law essentially barred the CDC for years from funding research into the problem, though a legislative deal in 2019 finally turned the spigots back on. 

Federal law also requires officers in the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms to use a card catalog and a phone system to trace a gun used in a crime, rather than simply searching an electronic database of gun sales.

What's next: The FBI is in the midst of switching to a new crime data system called NIBRS that will allow police agencies to submit more detailed information about each incident.

Eventually NIBRS will allow the FBI to compile far more granular data about crimes, including information about relationships between offenders and victims.

But it's more difficult for police agencies to collect and report data with this detail, and fewer than 10,000 departments — representing just 53% of the U.S. population — have reported NIBRS data this year. Major cities like New York and Los Angeles are missing.

The transition will take time, and in the short term, the picture around crime could get murkier, says John Roman of NORC at the University of Chicago. "When we get to 2022 and we're trying to look back to see what happened in 2021, we're going to know a lot less about it than any year going back decades."

Editor's note: This story has been updated to clarify that the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago is known as NORC at the University of Chicago.

6. Why we struggle to count violent gun crime

There's no single, reliable national standard for keeping track of shootings and violent crime

Illustrated collage of targets and a hand holding a gun.

America&#x27;s crime statistics, especially around guns, are a mess — and they could soon be worse.Why it matters: Without dependable, uniform numbers about the state of violent crime in the U.S., it&#x27;s difficult to know what to do about it.

New state-level gun safety laws or gun rights laws in 2021, by stated policy type

The battle over state gun laws

Photo illustration of a gun violence rally with an American flag in the background

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images