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Space 2051

National

Space

Axios Space

The past 50 years in space have been defined by governments, but the future belongs to private companies. 

Why it matters: The space industry is growing, and what was once the purview of nations is increasingly being taken over by companies looking to profit from their work in space. That new dynamic will shape the coming decades in orbit and beyond.

The big picture: Morgan Stanley predicts space could become a $1 trillion industry by 2040, built on the ideas of private companies and nations that back them.

Nations have historically been focused on scientific missions and exploration, but private companies like Elon Musk's SpaceX and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin have different goals.

They want to establish a permanent human presence on Mars and bring about a future where millions of people are living and working in space.

To do that, the cost of launching infrastructure — like satellites, telescopes and other tools — needs to come down, and a lot more people need to go up. 

One of the most consequential things happening today that will affect the future of space is a megaconstellation of internet-beaming satellites called Starlink being launched by SpaceX. Other companies plan to do the same.

Those groups of small satellites risk cluttering certain orbits around Earth, but they also represent a potentially huge business for companies to reach their bigger goals.

Companies are also looking to science as a possible way to profit in space. Rocket Lab, for example, plans to launch its own mission to Venus, while other companies are sending satellites to space to keep an eye on the Earth's surface and climate.

Yes, but: Launch costs have gone down in recent years, but that's no guarantee the trend will continue. 

"For years I've been hearing, the cost of launch is going to drop; it's going to drop; it's going to get smaller and smaller," Victoria Samson of the Secure World Foundation tells Axios. "It hasn't quite gotten there yet, it might." 

Regulation also hasn't yet caught up to the companies launching hundreds of satellites to orbit each year, creating concerns about space junk and collisions between spacecraft that could become more frequent in the future.

Companies like Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic and SpaceX have just started launching their first passengers to space.

Although this flashy part of the space industry may not bring in huge amounts of revenue, it could bring more interest to the sector and help it grow. 

In the coming years, these companies will have to prove themselves, Samson says. "Can they get people up there safely and back down safely?"

Between the lines: Even though companies will dominate much of the space landscape in coming years, nations will increasingly use the domain as an important geopolitical and international relations tool.

China and the U.S. are aiming for the Moon — and the U.S. is using contracts with private companies to get there. 

Space is also increasingly becoming militarized and weaponized.

The bottom line: There are far more players in space today — and there will be more in the coming decades. It's a whole new ballgame up there.

1. A whole new ballgame in space

In the future, space will likely be dominated by private companies.

Photo illustration of a 50s style business man looking out a window into space. 

Photo illustration: Aïda Amer. Photo: GraphicaArtis, Buyenlarge, LMPC via Getty Images

Deep Dive - Space 2051

Elon Musk

The past 50 years in space have been defined by governments, but the future belongs to private companies. Why it matters: The space industry is growing, and what was once the purview of nations is increasingly being taken over by companies looking to profit from their work in space. That new dynamic will shape the coming decades in orbit and beyond.

News and analysis of the scientific advances fueling AI and quantum computing, revolutionizing biology and medicine, and tackling climate change. Science is changing the world and colliding with the global politics that shape it.

Science

International satellite launches, by year

Data: United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs; Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios

Space is set to become more congested over the next decades as more countries and companies are able to access it and economies become more reliant on space-based technologies. 

Why it matters: Though space is seemingly infinite, Earth's orbital capacity is not, and this surge in traffic around the planet may catalyze new competitions — and collaborations — between nations.

What's happening: Yearly satellite launches have roughly doubled since 2019, according to data from the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs.

It's a trend that shows no signs of slowing, as analysts project up to 50,000 satellites could be orbiting the planet in the next decade, according to the U.S. Space Development Agency.

The big picture: "The more actors you have in space, the more people who have something at stake in this shared environment," says Todd Harrison, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

"That could actually bring countries together to establish better norms, policies, regulations for how we all use space," Harrison says.

On the other hand, "it becomes more likely that there may be conflicting interests. And when you have conflicting interests, that could lead to conflict," he adds.

Details: Increased competition and the specter of a conflict in space will likely push more countries to develop and deploy anti-satellite weapons.

Countries may choose to retain those weapons to deter attacks on their satellites, even if they never use them, Harrison says. Attacks that break apart satellites are dangerous not just for those targeted but for any nation or company with a satellite in the way of debris.

Weapons that use electromagnetic pulses, lasers and microwaves to temporarily disable or blind targets may be attractive alternatives because they don't create debris, and those types of attacks can be difficult to attribute to a particular actor.

Yes, but: It's unclear if this strategy of building up weapons but not using them — which has worked so far for nuclear weapons — could prevent a space skirmish because the consequences of satellite warfare would be less severe than nuclear warfare, Secure World Foundation's Brian Weeden says.

What to watch: Behavioral norms and regulations in space — such as defining how close satellites should approach each other and how to conduct responsible weapon tests in space — could help to maintain a relatively safe space environment.

Enforcing those norms and regulations and averting collisions, however, would require a better way to track and manage objects in orbit, says Victoria Samson, an analyst with Secure World Foundation.

Establishing international agreements for best practices in space would be difficult, Weeden says, but they wouldn't need to be unanimously adopted to function. If multiple countries adhere to them, that could be enough to recognize, condemn and curb irresponsible behavior.

2. Tensions on Earth reflected in orbit

Space is set to become more congested over the next decades.

Space is set to become more congested over the next decades as more countries and companies are able to access it and economies become more reliant on space-based technologies. Why it matters: Though space is seemingly infinite, Earth&#x27;s orbital capacity is not, and this surge in traffic around the planet may catalyze new competitions — and collaborations — between nations.

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Future

Axios Future

A drastic reduction in launch costs is helping fuel a vision of space not just as a realm of exploration or science, but real industry.

The big picture: Over the short term, space will likely become a place to manufacture high-precision, high-value products that benefit from a microgravity environment. But in the future, as Jeff Bezos noted in July after returning from his space trip, there could be a push to move heavy, polluting industries to operate in space.

By the numbers: Space startups brought in a record $7.6 billion in investment last year, and a July report from Space Capital found $9.9 billion was invested in all space companies in the second quarter of 2021 alone.  

"We're in the second golden age of space, and it's going to be a sustained golden age, because it's not just driven by government activity but commercial activity," says Andrew Rush, the COO and president of the aerospace company Redwire. 

Background: Space enthusiasts have long dreamed of not just exploring but building in space. But the sheer cost of moving material and people into orbit kept those dreams in the realm of science fiction.

Thanks largely to the efforts of private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin, the cost of launching payloads into orbit has fallen drastically over the past decade, opening up space to smaller players that were previously locked out of the industry.

"As it's getting cheaper and cheaper per kilogram to launch into space, it makes logical sense for super high value, very expensive things per kilogram to be made in space and brought back down to Earth," says Josh Wolfe, co-founder of the VC firm Lux Capital, which has invested in multiple space startups.

Years of work on the International Space Station have shown microgravity can hugely benefit the manufacturing of high-value materials including fiber optics, drugs, semiconductors and even bioprinted human organs.

"It's akin to Amazon Prime, but your stuff is not manufactured in China," Wolfe says. "It is manufactured above China in space."

Varda Space Industries in July closed on a $42 million Series A round to fund its efforts to build a manufacturing platform in space for products made most efficiently in microgravity.

What to watch: Improvements in 3D printing would allow more of the work needed to build out commercial infrastructure to be done in orbit, rather than lugged back and forth with rockets from Earth.

Made in Space, which is owned by Redwire, put the first 3D printer in space in 2014, and is working on developing an orbital platform for NASA that could assemble structures in space.

Such advances can help space industry untether as much as possible from Earth, notes Joe Landon, VP for advanced programs development at Lockheed Martin. 

"Eventually the only thing we'll launch from space is going to be people, because everything else we're going to build and find resources for outside Earth's gravity," he says. 

The catch: Space, as the saying goes, is hard, and as the rate of commercial launches ramps up, so does the chance that something will go wrong.

On Thursday, the FAA grounded Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic after reporting in the New Yorker showed the billionaire's sub-orbital flight on July 11 apparently drifted off course.

The space industry faces the "challenge of scaling up quickly and growing quickly," says Joe Schloesser, senior director at ISN, which helps manage contractor safety. "Anyone who has seen that in other industries knows there can be repercussions."

The bottom line: Business has thrived on exploiting frontiers, and space is the grandest one of all.

3. The final frontier opens for business

Cheaper launch cost and automated manufacturing in space means it's now open for business.

Photo illustration of a welder working over a red planet with the moon in the background

Photo illustration: Annelise Capossela. Photo: Alfred T. Palmer/Getty Images

A drastic reduction in launch costs is helping fuel a vision of space not just as a realm of exploration or science, but real industry.The big picture: Over the short term, space will likely become a place to manufacture high-precision, high-value products that benefit from a microgravity environment. But in the future, as Jeff Bezos <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="noted" data-vars-click-url="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeff-bezos-space-heavy-industry-polluting-industry/" data-vars-content-id="aaaba6f8-8b00-434e-b356-96a1e2967e25" data-vars-headline="The final frontier opens for business" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jeff-bezos-space-heavy-industry-polluting-industry/" target="_blank">noted</a> in July after returning from his space trip, there could be a push to move heavy, polluting industries to operate in space.

Axios Science

New probes to study nearby worlds, advanced telescopes to peer at far away planets, and expanding ideas about the signs of life are fueling a renaissance in the search for life beyond Earth.

Why it matters: It's an age-old question — is life as we know it on Earth unique, or is the universe actually teeming with life?

The big picture: The boom in the search for life isn't just about more funding and better telescopes, says Andrew Siemion of Breakthrough Listen, a project combing space for radio signatures of life.

"We're also seeing a Copernican revolution take place within astronomy, where the ubiquity of extrasolar planets is being viscerally felt and understood. That has really shaped the question of whether we are alone and the search for life."

More than 4,000 exoplanets have been discovered, almost entirely in the last three decades, but as far as scientists know, Earth's life still remains unique. 

What's happening: Upcoming missions will search for signs of life — and conditions for it — on worlds near and far from Earth.

NASA is slated to send two new missions to Venus in hopes of better understanding how a planet's geology is tied to its ability to harbor life and determining whether phosphine — a possible signature of life — is present in Venus' cloudy atmosphere.

Japan plans to send a robot to Mars' moon Phobos in 2024 to collect and return samples from the satellite, which some scientists think may actually be the best place to search for signs of life on the Red Planet. Other missions to gather samples from Mars itself are also underway.

"We're not in recon mode anymore, at least in the inner solar system," says Bethany Ehlmann, a professor of planetary science at Caltech.

Jupiter's moon Europa will be studied for signs of life in a NASA mission planned for the next decade. Researchers are pitching a similar study of Saturn's small, icy satellite Enceladus, a potentially habitable harbor in our solar system.

"Although these worlds don't exist in the classical habitable zone, conditions could be favorable for life in the vast oceans that exist beneath their ice shells," says Lynnae Quick, a planetary scientist at NASA who studies ocean worlds and is a member of the science team for the Europa Clipper mission. 

Beyond the boundaries of our solar system, scientists are continuing the search for signs of life that aren't molecules from microbes but radio signals that would indicate other technologically advanced life is out there.

But today's sophisticated technology may still not be sensitive enough to detect signals from other worlds so new radio telescopes are being developed, like the Next Generation Very Large Array and the Square Kilometer Array observatory, with larger collecting areas — and therefore more sensitivity — than today's radio telescopes.

"It will be the first time [we can be] truly sensitive to an Earth-like civilization in any snapshot observation," Siemion says.

What to watch: As modeling of planetary atmospheres improves and scientists' understanding of the diversity of worlds widens, they're starting to look for even more fundamental signs of life.

There appear to be patterns in the chemical reactions of living systems that differ from not-living systems, says Tessa Fisher, a graduate student at Arizona State University who is studying these reactions. 

And more complex molecules typically take more steps to create, she says. The molecules created in each reaction could be measured with an instrument on a space probe.

This work is "demonstrating a shift toward looking for a smoking gun for evidence of life — oxygen or amino acids — to thinking about life from a systems level point of view and looking at how life interacts with its environment."

Far out:  "By 2051, I expect there will be some astronomy being done from the Moon," Siemion says. 

There, astronomers don't have to contend with Earth's atmosphere and interference from radio signals. Siemion and some other researchers are proposing a "lunar astronomy village" of telescopes that share infrastructure. 

"It is more sci-fi but with the pace of things it may not be so far-fetched," he says.

4. The future of the search for life

There's been a renaissance in this search fueled by new technologies.

Photo illustration of Hubble looking through a telescope pointing towards Mars and the moon

Photo illustration: Annelise Capossela. Photos: NASA/Getty Images, Boyer/Roger Viollet via Getty Images

New probes to study nearby worlds, advanced telescopes to peer at far away planets, and expanding ideas about the signs of life are fueling a renaissance in the search for life beyond Earth.Why it matters: It&#x27;s an age-old question — is life as we know it on Earth unique, or is the universe actually teeming with life?

A growing constellation of satellites that can peer deep beneath the Earth's surface, track global sea level rise in unprecedented detail, and trace pollutants in the air will bolster climate science in the coming decades. 

Why it matters: The next few decades are critical for determining the pace and severity of climate change, and efforts to deploy new technologies to cut emissions to net negative numbers will require new planetary monitoring capabilities. 

Precise measurements of sea level rise, ocean currents and changes in ice sheet elevation can also alert us to the triggering of potentially devastating tipping points in the climate system. 

What's happening: The U.S., Europe, India and China are planning their next generation of weather and climate satellites.

Private companies and nonprofits, such as Planet, IceEye and Carbon Mapper, are also playing a growing role — providing data to companies and to governments.

The big picture: By 2050, assuming current Earth-observing platforms continue into the future, climate researchers will have...

5. Space will be even more critical to climate science in 2051

A growing constellation of satellites will bolster climate science.

A growing constellation of satellites that can peer deep beneath the Earth&#x27;s surface, track global sea level rise in unprecedented detail, and trace pollutants in the air will bolster climate science in the coming decades. Why it matters: The next few decades are critical for determining the pace and severity of climate change, and efforts to deploy new technologies to cut emissions to net negative numbers will require new planetary monitoring capabilities.