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Boris Johnson's successor will be the fourth Conservative prime minister in the past six years, continuing a trend of leaders ousted not at the ballot box but by party infighting.

Flashback: David Cameron resigned after losing the Brexit referendum in 2016 (with Johnson leading the opposing camp), while Theresa May stepped aside in 2019 after her Brexit deal was repeatedly voted down (with Johnson quitting her government in order to oppose it).

Johnson then called an election in December 2019 and won a landslide on his platform of "Get Brexit Done." The U.K. officially left the EU the following month.

What's next: Johnson will pass a big parliamentary majority on to his successor, along with many of the challenges associated with Britain's exit from the EU, including a fairly grim near-term economic outlook.

Labour currently leads the Conservatives in the polls, but the next election could come as late as January 2025.

Go deeper: The top candidates to replace Boris Johnson as U.K. prime minister

Revolving door on Downing Street

Brexit feuds brought down his two predecessors.

Boris Johnson

Brexit

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

The U.K.'s next prime minister is likely polishing their campaign pitch after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced — belatedly, when all other options had evaporated — that he would be stepping down.

Driving the news: Two candidates to replace Johnson as Conservative Party leader and thus prime minister have already thrown their hats into the ring, with many more expected to follow. The man who led the campaign to take Britain out of the EU and appeared electorally untouchable after a landslide victory in 2019 will soon be yesterday's news.

Half of Johnson's government, some 59 ministers, had resigned by the time he approached a podium outside Downing Street to announce his exit (something he insisted through Wednesday evening he would not be doing).

"The herd instinct is powerful, and when the herd moves, it moves," Johnson said, maintaining his wry tone even as he described his ouster as "painful" and "eccentric."

Johnson added that no politician is indispensable and "our brilliant and Darwinian system will produce another leader."

How it happened: The last straw came when Johnson's deputy chief whip, Chris Pincher, resigned after being accused of groping two men. It emerged that Johnson was aware of previous sexual misconduct allegations against Pincher before appointing him.

That followed months of drip-drip revelations that Downing Street had hosted boozy parties while the U.K. was in a strict COVID lockdown. "Partygate" stuck to Johnson in a way no previous scandal had (and there were many).

He compounded the frustrations of his lieutenants by forcing them to defend positions — "there were no parties in Downing Street," "he wasn't aware of the concerns about Pincher" — that turned out to be fiction.

A cost-of-living crisis and a controversial tax hike didn't help matters.

Perhaps most damaging of all was his transition from electoral magician to liability.

The Conservatives trail Labour in the polls and have suffered a string of embarrassing defeats in recent special elections.

Johnson blamed the parliamentary "herd," but the public turned on him long before his Cabinet did.

What's next: Johnson has cobbled together a new Cabinet of MPs still willing to serve under him, and he intends to stay in office for up to three months as the party leadership contest plays out.

He said in Thursday's address that the timetable will be released next week, and he assured the Cabinet that he won't take major policy steps in the interim.

Tory heavyweights including former Prime Minister John Major have urged him to step aside now in favor of his deputy to end the political circus. Labour leader Keir Starmer is threatening a no-confidence vote if he doesn't.

Meanwhile, Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Tom Tugendhat and Attorney General Suella Braverman have launched their campaigns to succeed Johnson.

The potential favorites include recently departed Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid, who together launched the resignation wave by stepping down on Tuesday evening, as well as Foreign Secretary Liz Truss.

The bookmakers' favorites also include Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, whose stock has risen during the war in Ukraine, and Penny Mordaunt, who as a relatively moderate Brexiteer could conceivably help unite the sparring wings of the party.

What to watch: If Johnson's political career up to now is any guide, the coming transition period may be an eventful one.

How it all fell apart for Boris Johnson

In a career filled with scandals, one finally caught up to him.

Boris Johnson gives a press conference on Covid last year. Photo: Adrian Dennis-WPA Pool/Getty Images

The top candidates to replace Boris Johnson as U.K. prime minister

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson clung on to his job Monday after surviving a no-confidence vote sparked by members of his own party. 148 Conservative MPs voted to remove him, short of the 180 required for a majority.

Why it matters: Johnson was found to have broken the law by attending several social gatherings during the U.K.'s strict COVID-19 lockdown. He'll be further weakened by the revelation that so many within his own party want him gone. Still, party rules dictate that he cannot face another confidence vote for a year.

Yes, but: Previous Tory prime ministers, most recently Theresa May in 2018, have failed to keep their jobs for long after facing a confidence vote.

Margaret Thatcher also resigned in 1990 not long after surviving a leadership challenge by a similar margin.

Johnson's standing with the public has also fallen sharply. His approval rating is down to 29% and he was booed on Friday while attending celebrations for the 70th anniversary of Queen Elizabeth II's coronation.

Under party rules, 15% of Conservative MPs must express disapproval of the party leader to spark a vote — a threshold that was reached on Monday — and a majority must vote to remove them. 

What to watch: In the immediate aftermath of the vote, a number of politicians and pundits began to predict Johnson's political demise, though he has shown a remarkable resilience to scandal in the past.

The very attributes that won Johnson a landslide victory in 2019 have now become his weaknesses, James Johnson, who worked as May's chief pollster in Downing Street, tells Axios.

"The strongman that voters liked, they now view as weak. The rare politician that they thought they could laugh along with is now seen to be laughing at them. It’s very difficult to see how Boris Johnson restores the trust of the people and his reputation regardless of the outcome of this confidence vote this evening," says Johnson, co-founder of polling firm JL Partners. 

Boris Johnson survives no-confidence vote over lockdown parties

He was found to have broken the law by attending lockdown parties.

Boris Johnson at Downing Street. Photo: Dominic Lipinski/PA Images via Getty

Until recently, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's popularity within his party and with the public made his position appear almost invulnerable. Now 6 in 10 Brits think he'll be out of a job by the end of next year.

By the numbers: Johnson's approval ratings have plummeted to a record-low 30%, his Brexit negotiator just abandoned ship, and his image as an electoral juggernaut has been tainted.

How it happened: Johnson has faced relentless headlines since early November about "sleaze" in his party ranks (he moved to change ethics rules in an ill-fated attempt to save scandal-tainted Brexiteer Member of Parliament Owen Paterson) and his own home (he used an undeclared donation to refurbish 10 Downing Street).

He's faced brutal press coverage for matters trivial (the bizarre speech in which he lost his place and rambled about Peppa Pig) and substantial (the resignation of Brexit Minister David Frost over the direction of Johnson's government).

On COVID-19, he's tried to walk a tightrope between scientific advisers pushing a stronger response to the Omicron wave and Conservative backbenchers resisting any such steps — 100 of whom rebelled against Johnson in last week's vote to require COVID passes to enter certain large venues.

Then there are the parties, or "work meetings," depending on whom you ask.

Johnson denied an initial wave of reports about Christmas parties in Downing Street during last year's strict lockdown. Then came a leaked video of his spokesperson joking about just such a party at the time.

Johnson tasked Cabinet Secretary Simon Case with investigating whether any such parties had taken place, but Case stepped down after it emerged that his office might have hosted one.

On Sunday, the Guardian published a photo, taken during another strict lockdown in May 2020, of Johnson seated with his wife and aides in the Downing Street garden, with wine and cheese on the table and a dozen more aides gathered in the background.

Johnson insists the photo shows "people at work talking about work." Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab bolstered his own claim of a work meeting by noting that the people in the photo were wearing suits (most of them weren't).

The big picture: Johnson's political allies have forgiven him all manner of sins in the past because he's a proven election winner.

Since London started directly electing mayors in 2000, Johnson is the only Conservative to win. He did it twice.

Johnson led the underdog pro-Brexit campaign, cruised through the 2019 Conservative leadership election, and then won the party's biggest general election landslide in three decades.

But when Paterson's seat was up for a special election on Thursday, the Conservative candidate was badgered with questions about Johnson's integrity (which he declined to answer). The Conservatives lost a seat they had held for 200 years, and the party's former electoral savior began to look like a liability.

State of play: Labour currently leads the Conservatives in the polls for the first time since Johnson became Tory leader, but an election isn't due until 2024.

If Johnson is indeed to be ousted in 2022, the shove will have to come from within his own party. Imminent action on that front seems unlikely, though Conservative MPs have started knifing Johnson anonymously in the press.

Boris Johnson has gone from life of the party to liability

Looking back at a very bad six weeks for the U.K.'s PM.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson during a police station visit in London on Monday. Photo: Leon Neal/Getty Images

United Kingdom

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Axios from Tel Aviv

The Biden administration and the Israeli government held talks recently on countering the proliferation of Iranian drones and cruise missiles among its proxies in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, Israeli and U.S. officials tell me.

Why it matters: After several drone attacks from pro-Iranian militias in recent weeks, some of which were thwarted, the U.S. and Israel are highly concerned that the technology will spread to additional groups who could target their forces in the region.

Driving the news: Al Asad Airbase, where most U.S. troops in Iraq are stationed, has been attacked repeatedly by pro-Iranian Shia militias. A hangar was damaged in a drone attack on May 8, and two armed drones were shot down there on June 6.

The Israeli air force, meanwhile, shot down an armed Iranian drone that was trying to enter Israeli airspace during the Gaza crisis on May 18.

Behind the scenes: During a meeting in Washington on April 27, national security advisor Jake Sullivan and his Israeli counterpart, Meir Ben Shabbat, agreed to establish an inter-agency working group to focus on unmanned aerial vehicles and precision-guided missiles produced by Iran and provided to its regional proxies.

The group's first meeting took place three weeks ago, with the U.S. side headed by White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk and the Israeli side led by deputy national security adviser Reuven Azar.

The Israeli delegation proposed a regional cooperation framework involving Arab countries who face a similar threat from Iranian drones and missiles.

The Israeli side also proposed a no-fly zone for Iranian-made drones in the region, per Israeli officials briefed on the meeting. It's not clear how that would work.

What’s next: Israeli officials say their impression is that the working group will continue meeting because the Biden administration sees the drone threat to U.S. forces in the region as a high priority and worries that as the technology spreads the danger will only grow more severe.

Scoop: U.S. and Israel huddle on drone threat from Iran

The White House is worried Iran will share drones with more proxies.

iranian Army drones on display in January. Photo: Iranian Army via Getty

Iran

Israel

British naval vessels dispatched to break a French blockade, Scottish nationalists attempting to break away from the U.K., and working class voters in the northeast breaking for the Conservatives after voting Labour for six decades.

Why it matters: That was just one day in the topsy turvy reality of post-Brexit Britain.

Driving the news: Thursday was the U.K.'s first major election day since 2019, with ballots cast for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and local governments across England.

Polls have just closed in what Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has called the "most important election in our lifetime."

Sturgeon’s Scottish National Party is certain to win, but an outright majority would strengthen her calls for a re-run of the 2014 independence referendum, in which Scots voted 55% to 45% to stay within the U.K.

Sentiment has shifted since the 2016 Brexit vote, which Scots overwhelmingly opposed. The latest polls suggest a new referendum would be a close run affair, with the pro-independence camp promising a return to the EU if successful.

What to watch: Prime Minister Boris Johnson has vowed to block a second referendum, but if Sturgeon does win a majority, he may feel the need to change his answer from “never” to “not now,” James Johnson, a former Downing Street pollster, tells Axios.

80 miles south of the Scottish border, in Hartlepool, Johnson’s Conservatives are poised to pick up a seat that has been held by Labour since 1964.

A brick in the “red wall” of Labour’s northern heartlands, Hartlepool voted for Brexit by a 70% to 30% margin.

Johnson re-drew Britain’s political map by picking up dozens of such seats in the 2019 "Brexit election." But losing Hartlepool in his first major electoral test would be a painful blow for new Labour leader Keir Starmer.

The Conservatives' strong position coming into the election indicates “this realignment, the Boris effect, is really about something much deeper than Brexit," says Johnson, the pollster. "It’s about a values divide," with Labour now seen as the metropolitan party.

The big picture: Boris Johnson has bounced from crisis to crisis over the past year, but by sprinting ahead of the EU on vaccinations, the prime minister bolstered his own popularity and the Brexit cause.

The Brexit aftermath has been less kind to Arlene Foster, who resigned last week as First Minister of Northern Ireland.

Her Democratic Unionist Party backed Brexit but felt betrayed when Johnson struck a deal that put a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the U.K.

Brexit is among the factors driving up tensions in Northern Ireland, with violent scenes from Belfast last month evoking the Troubles era.

One scene few would have predicted is a confrontation in the English Channel between two stalwart allies.

How it happened: French fishermen protesting post-Brexit limitations on their access to the waters around Jersey blocked the island's main port this morning.

London then dispatched two naval vessels to Jersey, a U.K. territory. The French government, which had threatened to cut power to the island over what it sees as illegal fishing restrictions, responded with two patrol boats of its own.

Between the lines: Fishing rights took on a major symbolic status during the Brexit fight. Johnson has also long vowed that post-Brexit Britain would flex its muscles internationally.

But while the Daily Mail tabloid declared, "WE'RE READY FOR WAR," it didn't come to that today.

Blockades and ballots: A wild day in the post-Brexit U.K.

The ripples of Brexit were on full display on Thursday.

Illustration of a steaming tea kettle with the U.K. flag on the side.

The United Kingdom's government announced Wednesday it has deployed two Royal Navy patrol vessels to the island of Jersey "as a precautionary measure," as tensions over fishing rights escalate with France.

Why it matters: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in a statement the government took the action to protect Jersey against potential threats of "a blockade" of French fishing boats at the island, which is off the coast of northwest France.

French officials on Tuesday threatened "retaliation measures" including cutting off electricity to the self-governing dependency of the British crown over the dispute — which is driven by claims the U.K. government breached a fishing licenses agreement reached in the Brexit deal.

Of note: Jersey gets 95% of its electricity from France via underwater cables.

Flashback: The issue of fishing territory was a major sticking point during Brexit negotiations.

U.K. sends patrol ships to British island amid fishing dispute with France

Boris Johnson said he took the action amid threats of "a blockade" of French fishing boats at Jersey.

 HMS Tamar leaves Portsmouth on December 31, 2020 in Portsmouth, England. 

 The HMS Tamar, one of the two ships deployed to Jersey. Photo: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images

Axios Markets

It took two general elections, three prime ministers, and just over 4 1/2 years, but as of today Britain finally has the Brexit it voted for in June 2016. 

The big picture: Britain has left Europe's single market and customs union, and is no longer governed by European law.

Yes, but: Northern Ireland is still part of the U.K., while trading as though it is part of Europe. That means anybody moving goods between Northern Ireland and Great Britain needs to fill out a customs declaration first.

An analogy: Imagine businesses in Alaska being able to trade freely with Canada and Mexico, but needing to fill out paperwork in order to import or export anything to the rest of the USA. 

Gibraltar, similarly, will join the Schengen Area. That means Europeans will be able to travel in and out freely, while visitors from the U.K. are forced to show their passports at a border control. 

The trade deal with Europe puts zero tariffs on goods. Most of Britain's economy is in the services sector, however — which aren't covered at all in the deal. (The U.K.'s businesses have had just one week to prepare for the new trade regime, which was agreed to on Christmas Eve.)

Britain exports about $35 billion of financial services to the EU every year, and another $134 billion of other services, including legal, accounting, advertising, architecture, insurance, tech support, and much more. 

As for the U.K.'s trade relations with the rest of the world, 62 trade agreements have been signed — although many big ones, including the U.S., China and India, are still up in limbo. 

By the numbers: The U.K. Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that Brexit will leave the country about 4% poorer than it would have been as part of the EU. 

That's just the economic cost. The cultural costs associated with the end of free movement of labor between Britain and the continent are less quantifiable, but arguably larger.

Both Europe and the U.K. may also be less secure, now that British police no longer have access to the Schengen Information System. Last year, they queried Europe's largest security database more than 1.6 million times per day.

The future of the U.K. is also now at risk. 

Scotland wants to secede and become an independent European nation.

Northern Ireland might vote to leave the U.K. and join Ireland, reuniting the island. 

The other side: "For the first time since 1973 we will be an independent coastal state with full control of our waters," said U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, announcing the deal. 

The bottom line: For the past 40 years, Britain found peace and prosperity as one of the most important players in a community of more than 400 million people. As of today, it has become, once again, an island off the coast of Europe.

Post-Brexit Britain arrives

Business

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

The historic post-Brexit trade deal reached between Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government and the European Union was signed into U.K. law by Queen Elizabeth II on Thursday morning.

Why it matters: The law will come into effect at 11pm Thursday U.K. time when the Brexit transition period officially ends.

The House of Commons voted 521 to 73 on Wednesday in favor of the bill, which was approved by the U.K. House of Lords later that night — marking the last major hurdle needed to implement the deal.

The state of play: Johnson's government was criticized for giving Parliament just days to scrutinize one of the most significant pieces of legislation in decades, but even members of the opposition Labour Party ended up voting for the agreement in order to stave off a potentially catastrophic "no-deal" Brexit.

The deal, which fundamentally reshapes the U.K.'s relationship with its closest and largest trading partner, will now go to receive royal assent and becoming law.

European heads of state came out in support of the deal earlier this week, while the European Parliament plans to scrutinize the agreement and officially vote on it after Jan. 1 — though it will be applied on a provisional basis in the meantime.

Go deeper: U.K. and EU reach historic post-Brexit trade deal

Editor's note: This story has been updated with details of the House of Lords vote and the signing of the bill into law. 

Post-Brexit trade deal with EU signed into U.K. law

The law will come into effect at 11pm U.K. time today.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson celebrates reaching a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU. Photo via Downing Street

On June 23, 2016, the United Kingdom shocked the world and voted to “Brexit,” or leave the European Union. After more than three years of uncertainty and fractured politics, the U.K. officially exited the EU on Jan. 31, 2020. 

“Leave”: The pro-Brexit campaign focused on cutting immigration, gaining sovereignty and slashing payments to Brussels.

“Remain”: The opposing campaign emphasized economic harm if Brexit went ahead.

Conservative Party: At the time of Brexit, the Conservative Party held a majority in Parliament. The party lost its majority in a snap election called by then-Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May in 2017 and was forced to rely on the support of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party.

David Cameron: Prime Minister from 2010-2016. He called the referendum, campaigned for "Remain," and resigned after losing the vote.

Theresa May: Prime Minister from 2016-2019. May supported remaining in the EU before winning the leadership election to replace Cameron. She resigned from the position after failing to win support for her approach to Brexit.

Boris Johnson: The U.K.’s prime minister as of July 24. He was one of the most vocal proponents of leaving the EU from within the Conservative Party.

Labour Party: The opposition party in Parliament, whose members overwhelmingly supports remaining in the EU.

Jeremy Corbyn: The hard-left leader of the Labour Party. He opposed Brexit (at least officially) but after the vote said the results must be respected. He's been accused of failing to take a firm stance in favor of remaining, which has caused the party to hemorrhage support.

No deal Brexit: The case in which the U.K. leaves the E.U. with no formal exit agreement, which would be bad for Europe and disastrous for the U.K. There is an overwhelming consensus on both sides of the aisle that a no-deal Brexit cannot be allowed to happen, per Axios’ Felix Salmon.

Backstop: An insurance policy to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland — which could trigger a flareup of sectarian violence on the island — until the EU's future relationship with the U.K. is resolved. The backstop is considered a dealbreaker for hardline Brexiteers and a necessity for the EU.

Prorogation: Suspension of Parliament. The prime minister typically asks the queen to prorogue Parliament once a year in order to bring an end to legislative business. When Parliament returns for its new session, the queen makes a speech setting out the government's agenda.

June 23, 2016: The United Kingdom votes to leave the European Union with 51.89% of the votes to leave and 48.11% to remain. 

June 24, 2016: Prime Minister David Cameron announces he’ll step down.

July 13, 2016: Home Secretary Theresa May becomes prime minister after a leadership contest.

March 28, 2017: May signs a letter invoking Article 50, formally beginning the U.K.’s exit from the EU.

June 9, 2017: In a snap general election called early by May, who thought she could strengthen her majority, the Conservative Party loses its majority in a shocking vote that leaves the U.K. with a hung Parliament. May forms a government with the support of the right-wing Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party.

Dec. 8, 2017: The U.K. and EU reach a last-minute “breakthrough” deal on the first phase of Brexit negotiations. The deal ensures there’ll be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, guarantees the rights of EU citizens in the U.K. (and vice versa) and sets the financial terms for the U.K.’s exit.

March 2, 2018: Theresa May outlines her economic vision for the U.K.’s departure from the EU. She presents the softest version of a hard Brexit plan that removes the U.K. from the EU’s market and customs union, but still maintains important economic and regulatory links to the EU via a landmark trade deal. 

March 19, 2018: Negotiators reach a deal on key terms for the Brexit transition period, with the U.K. making notable concessions. This deal introduces the backstop.

July 7, 2018: May and her Cabinet agree on a plan that would see the U.K. maintain close economic ties with the EU in what would amount to a “soft” Brexit.

July 8, 2018: David Davis resigns as Brexit secretary and Boris Johnson resigns as foreign secretary. Both were supporters of a hard Brexit.

Nov. 13, 2018: The U.K. and the EU agree on a draft Brexit agreement, which May’s Cabinet agrees to back the next day.

May’s Brexit secretary and Work and Pensions secretary resign over the agreement.

Dec. 4, 2018: May’s government is found in contempt of Parliament for the first time in history after a refusal to publish its full legal analysis on Brexit.

Dec. 12, 2018: 48 Conservative MPs submit letters forcing May to face a vote of no confidence from her own party, which she survives.

Jan. 15, 2019: May’s Brexit deal is defeated in the House of Commons by a historic 202 to 432 margin, the biggest defeat for a reigning government in more than a century.

Jan. 16, 2019: May survives a motion of no-confidence brought by Jeremy Corbyn.

Jan. 29, 2019: Parliament votes to support May’s effort to find “alternative arrangements” with the EU on the Irish backstop. Parliament also votes to express its opposition to “no deal,” but rejects a plan to push the official exit date back. 

March 12, 2019: After spending weeks scrambling to make last-minute tweaks to her Brexit agreement, May sees her plan defeated once again in Parliament by a margin of 242 to 391.

March 13, 2019: Parliament votes to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

March 21, 2019: The EU gives the U.K. a short Brexit extension to April 12.

Everything you need to know about Brexit

The U.K. has a new prime minister, but the same incredibly complex puzzle it's faced for the past two years.

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