Axios

Israeli officials will tell Secretary of State Tony Blinken on Tuesday that Israel won't allow Palestinians to return to northern Gaza if Hamas doesn't agree to release more hostages, according to two senior Israeli officials.

The big picture: Making progress toward the return of Palestinians to their homes and ensuring they are not forcibly displaced from Gaza is one of the goals of Blinken's talks in Israel this week.

The world's number No. 1 risk this year is "The United States vs. itself," Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer writes in "Top Risks 2024" on Monday.

Driving the news: "With the outcome of the vote essentially a coin toss (at least for now), the only certainty is continued damage to America's social fabric, political institutions, and international standing," Bremmer said.

The Emirati president rebuffed a request by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to pay "unemployment" stipends to Palestinian workers from the occupied West Bank whom Israel barred from entering its territory after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, an Israeli official and a source familiar with the issue told Axios.

• "Ask Zelensky for money," Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) sarcastically told Netanyahu, the sources said.

Why it matters: MBZ's refusal underscores the position of many Arab countries that have said they won't foot the bill to maintain the status quo in the West Bank and Gaza after the war.

The Qatari prime minister and other officials told the family members of six U.S. and Israeli hostages in Doha that this week's killing of senior Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut has made efforts to secure a new deal much more difficult, according to a Qatari official and an Israeli source.

Why it matters: Saturday's meeting was the first time Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani has hosted families of Israeli hostages in Doha. His message illustrates just how complex any efforts to secure a new hostage deal have become as tensions rise across the region.