Updated Jan 8, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Top risks in 2024: U.S. turmoil, ungoverned AI, Middle East conflict

Illustration of the Earth with "caution" tape around it.

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

The world's number No. 1 risk this year is "The United States vs. itself," Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer writes in "Top Risks 2024" on Monday.

Driving the news: "With the outcome of the vote essentially a coin toss (at least for now), the only certainty is continued damage to America's social fabric, political institutions, and international standing," Bremmer said.

Among other threats on the list:

  1. Middle East on the brink: "The current fighting in Gaza is likely to be only the first phase in an expanding conflict in 2024."
  2. Ungoverned AI: "In a year when four billion people will head to the polls, generative AI will be used by domestic and foreign actors — notably Russia — to influence electoral campaigns, stoke division, undermine trust in democracy, and sow political chaos on an unprecedented scale."
  3. Axis of rogues: Deepening ties among Russia, Iran and North Korea threaten global stability.

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