National

A Florida judge kept Gov. Ron DeSantis' new congressional map alive Tuesday, allowing the state to implement a Republican-friendly plan while three state lawsuits continue.

Why it matters: The national redistricting fight is a race to pre-write who controls Congress before voters ever see a ballot. 

Control of the U.S. House could turn on seats manufactured in state capitals as part of a mid-decade redistricting war started by President Trump.

In 2010  nearly 63% of Florida voters approved a ban on partisan gerrymandering, but DeSantis' general counsel told lawmakers the state doesn't have to abide by that ban.

The latest: The ruling by Leon County Circuit Judge Joshua Hawkes, a DeSantis appointee, keeps DeSantis' map in place while the lawsuits continue and election officials prepare for the 2026 races.

The fight likely ends at the Florida Supreme Court, where DeSantis appointed six of seven justices and all seven were appointed by Republican governors.

Hawkes found plaintiffs had not shown a substantial likelihood of success, writing that mapmaker Jason Poreda's use of partisan data was circumstantial evidence, not direct proof of illegal intent.

He said forcing Florida back to its 2022 map on a rushed record would be improper, especially with the state's election machinery already underway and the primary less than three months away.

The big picture: DeSantis' map lands in a national redistricting fight that is moving fast and mostly in Republicans' direction.

The U.S. Supreme Court strengthened GOP arguments against race-conscious districts.

Virginia's pro-Democratic gerrymander was struck down by its state Supreme Court. Louisiana is expected to convert one of its two Black Democratic seats into a Republican seat. Tennessee has already eliminated its last Democratic, Black-majority seat.

Flashback: DeSantis already remade Florida's congressional map once.

In 2022, he vetoed the Legislature's map, pushed lawmakers to pass his own and helped produce a delegation of 20 Republicans and just eight Democrats.

This year, his office drew the replacement map, sent it to lawmakers and provided Axios a version colored red and blue by partisan performance.

Catch up quick: All three state lawsuits challenging DeSantis' map have been consolidated before Hawkes.

At Friday's hearing, plaintiffs leaned on DeSantis' mapmaker Jason Poreda's statements that he drew the map "not having to comply with the Fair Districts Amendment" and used "partisan data" for "every district."

DeSantis first unveiled the map to Fox News by pointing to Florida's shift from a Democratic voter registration advantage "to a 1.5 million Republican advantage."

GOP state Rep. Tom Fabricio posted on X: "Done correctly, this will strengthen Republican seats, help keep a GOP majority in Congress to advance solid policies and stand up to the woke left."

The other side: The state argued the court has no power to block the map and that changing maps this close to an election would confuse voters.

That timing argument has an obvious tension: The state is defending a map enacted months before the primary.

Although the Fair Districts Amendment bans any districts "drawn to favor or disfavor" a political party, the state argued plaintiffs had to prove the Legislature, not just the person who drew the map, was biased.

The state doesn't argue the map improved districts' compactness or other requirements under the Fair Districts Amendments. But it says the map was roughly comparable on those metrics.

What's next: Plaintiffs already filed notices of appeal, and the lawsuits will continue to trial.

Judge Hawkes wrote the challenge "is more geared toward the 2028 or 2030 election cycles than the 2026 election cycle."

The bottom line: DeSantis' efforts to upend Florida Democrats' districts looks likely to hold for at least the 2026 election.

This article has been updated with more comment from Judge Joshua Hawkes and further context.

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Florida congressional map survives first court test

Control of the U.S. House could turn on seats manufactured in state capitals.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis walks outside the State Capitol in Tallahassee, Fla., on Jan. 13, 2026.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis arrives at the State Capitol in Tallahassee on Jan. 13. Photo: Matias J. Ocner/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images

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2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

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A federal court has put the brakes on Alabama's efforts to revert to its 2023 congressional maps for this year's elections.

Why it matters: If Alabamans vote this fall under the 2023 maps, one of the state's seven House seats would likely flip from blue to red.

The decision also carries implications for Alabama's upcoming special primaries, with wheels already turning on a plan to put the former maps in effect for midterm elections.

The latest: A three-judge panel on Tuesday blocked the state from using its 2023 maps and ordered it to instead use court-drawn maps that were instituted after the previous maps were struck down for intentionally diluting minority voting power.

Catch up quick: Earlier this month, the U.S. Supreme Court lifted lower-court injunctions blocking the state from using the 2023 maps, after Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall filed emergency motions to that effect in the wake of the Louisiana v. Callais ruling. 

Those motions requested the cases be remanded back to the lower court in light of the Callais ruling, but the panel of judges said in Tuesday's order that "our re-examination in light of Callais yields the same conclusion." 

A special session of the state Legislature wrapped up May 8, resulting in two bills setting the stage for special Aug. 11 primary elections for the four affected congressional districts. 

Zoom in: "We now face a critical decision on a very tight timeline," the judges wrote in Tuesday's order.

The court said it had to decide whether to allow the state to move forward with a map "that we found (after a full trial) intentionally discriminated against Black voters" or to issue an injunction two-and-a-half months before the special primary elections. It chose the latter. 

"We reject in the strongest possible terms the State's attempt to finish its intentional decision to dilute minority votes with a veneer of legislative regularity," the judges write.

The Aug. 11 special primaries will proceed per state law passed during the special session but will do so under the current court-ordered map — unless the U.S. Supreme Court intervenes again. 

What they're saying: "As a party to this case, in my official capacity as Secretary of State, I strongly disagree with the lower Court's decision," Alabama Secretary of State Wes Allen said in a statement emailed to Axios. "I look forward to appealing it to the [Supreme Court] as soon as possible."

Gov. Kay Ivey issued a statement as well, saying she supports plans to appeal the decision and that she's hopeful the state can move forward with its Aug. 11 special elections.

Federal judges block Alabama's congressional map switch

Federal judges put the brakes on Alabama's efforts to revert to its 2023 congressional maps.

Close-up of a table filled with campaign materials: blue pamphlets, posters, and many round badges; a hand reaches to pick up a blue circular badge amid stacks of flyers.

All Roads Lead to the South took to the Alabama State House on May 16 in Montgomery. Photo: Jason Davis/Getty Images for Legal Defense Fund/All Roads Lead to the South

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The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is employing an unusual tactic to blunt what it says is Republican meddling in its primaries:

It has teamed up with the candidates it sees as the "strongest" in key battleground districts, launching joint ad buys to squeeze out its Democratic primary opponents.

Why it matters: This practice has infuriated parts of the party, particularly the progressive wing.

"If DCCC were a good judge of electability, then we wouldn't be in the mess we're in," said Ravi Mangla, a spokesperson for the progressive Working Families Party, in a statement to Axios.

DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement that "the stakes are incredibly high for the midterms" and it is "critical that Democrats have the strongest candidates possible in November to take back the House."

Driving the news: The DCCC roiled certain corners of the party this month by endorsing a slate of "Red to Blue" candidates in key battleground House districts that still had credible primary opponents:

Jasmeet Bains, a California state Assembly member who is competing against progressive political science professor Randy Villegas —  who has led in fundraising and is neck-and-neck with Bains in polls — to take on Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.).

Bob Brooks, the president of the Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association, who dispatched three relatively well-funded opponents in his primary and will face off with Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.).

Marlene Galán-Woods, a former TV news anchor in a primary field of five other candidates, including former Arizona state Rep. Amish Shah, who defeated Galán-Woods in the 2024 primary for the same seat.

Joe Baldacci, a Maine state senator, whose primary opponents for retiring Rep. Jared Golden's (D-Maine) seat include state Auditor Matthew Dunlap and former House staffer Jordan Wood.

Johnny Garcia, a sheriff's deputy in a runoff with therapist Maureen Galindo, who finished first in the March primary but has been widely disavowed by Democrats for antisemitic comments.

Zoom in: The DCCC has now spent money in three of these primaries, launching joint ad buys with Bains, Brooks and Garcia, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.

It spent over $100,000 on an ad buy boosting Brooks, who says in the party-backed spot: "There's a lot of politicians in Washington, not a lot of folks like us. ... D.C. is a dumpster fire, and we're going to put it out."

It has put more than $45,000 into supporting Bains — roughly half of which was placed on Tuesday — with ads touting her as someone who will "stop the cruel cuts and do what's right." 

Most recently, the DCCC placed a $35,000 ad buy attacking Galindo for her comments and labeling her "MAGA Maureen."

Between the lines: What these races have in common is that Democrats are accusing Republicans of meddling in each one.

An obscure new group called Lead Left PAC spent over $1.2 million on ads attacking Brooks and supporting one of his opponents, Lamont McClure, and has put another $900,000 into ads supporting Galindo.

The PAC's website says it "stands against MAGA extremists who will infect our country with Donald Trump's agenda" but reportedly had a link to GOP fundraising platform WinRed in its metadata.

While House Republicans have stayed quiet on whether they are behind Lead Left PAC, they have openly spent money trying to boost Villegas.

The bottom line: "We believe our Red to Blue candidates represent the best chance to help Democrats win in the general election and why shady Republican groups have spent for Bains', Brooks' and Garcia's primary opponents. They know it too," said Shelton, the DCCC spokesperson. 

To some progressive groups, that simply isn't enough justification: "We're seeing all over the country that voters want populist candidates who aren't in the pocket of Big Tech and corporate elites," said Mangla.

The DCCC's unusual new target: Democratic candidates

The DCCC has spent around $175,000 playing in contested Democratic primaries.

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A line chart that tracks the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index monthly from May 2015 to May 2026. The index ranges from 85.7 in April 2020 and April 2025 to 137.9 in October 2018. It fell sharply in early 2020, rebounded in 2021, then mostly hovered near 90 to 110.

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Data: The Conference Board; Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios

Consumer confidence soured in early May, according to the Conference Board, though the reading shows a far less bleak economic mood than its peer survey from the University of Michigan, which plumbed new lows Friday.

Why it matters: Directionally, the two surveys send the same signal: Consumers are downgrading their economic views as the war-driven energy shock weighs on household budgets.

But whether consumers feel worse about the economy now than at any other point in the past half-century depends on which survey you reference.

Driving the news: The Conference Board's monthly consumer confidence index fell 0.7 percentage point in May, to 93.1. But it ticked down to a level that is still above where it stood as recently as January.

A modest jump in future expectations nearly offset a pullback in how Americans view current conditions.

Still, consumers' "references to prices and oil and gas increased in frequency for a second consecutive month, while mentions of war, geopolitics and conflict remained elevated—likely signaling consumers' underlying concerns about the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East on their wallets," the Conference Board said in a release.

The survey cutoff was May 19, capturing a period when the war in the Middle East lifted global prices and before optimism over an Iran deal emerged in recent days. 

The bottom line: Consumers feel crappy about the economy. 

But just how crappy might have something to do with how the surveys are structured. 

The University of Michigan puts more emphasis on purchasing power and financial conditions, both of which have been meaningfully under pressure in recent years as inflation shocks reignited.

But the Conference Board largely focuses its queries on the health of the labor market, which has held up despite some softening in hiring. 

Consumer confidence gauges show disenchantment, yet to different degrees

Consumer confidence is negative, but how bad is up for debate

Just how crappy consumers feel about the economy might be related to how two confidence surveys are structured.

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BP removed board chair Albert Manifold on Tuesday, citing "serious concerns" about "governance standards, oversight and conduct."

Why it matters: BP has lost its CEO and now its board chair in the span of six months, the latest leadership turmoil for a company that has cycled through CEOs during its strategic pivot.

New CEO Meg O'Neill was appointed in December following the surprise resignation of Murray Auchincloss after roughly two years in the role. She took over in April.

Auchincloss took the reins in September 2023 after then-CEO Bernard Looney abruptly left amid a probe into his personal relationships within the company.

Catch up quick: In recent years, BP has pivoted back toward its core oil and gas business to boost performance that had lagged rivals. 

Its stock has outperformed some peers this year and first quarter earnings beat expectations, Bloomberg notes. 

BP has pulled back from the aggressive climate plan it launched under Looney in 2020.

State of play: Amanda Blanc, BP's senior independent director, said in a statement that Manifold "has helped bring a welcome focus and pace to BP's transformation."

But Blanc added: "However, the board has been surprised and disappointed to learn of governance oversight and conduct issues it deems unacceptable and has taken decisive action."

The intrigue: The Financial Times, citing people familiar with the matter, reports on behind-the-scenes controversy over Manifold's work.

"Manifold's hands-on approach was viewed as excessive by several colleagues who saw the level of control he exerted as more akin to that of an executive chair," the paper reports.

What's next: The company named Ian Tyler interim board chair while it seeks a permanent replacement. 

BP removes board chair, citing "conduct" concerns

BP has lost its CEO and now its board chair in the span of six months.

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President Trump has proudly stretched the power of the presidency in never-before-witnessed ways.

But it's the choices he's made with that power — often alone, often impulsive — that explain his plunging popularity and will define his second term.

Why it matters: Every president tests limits. Trump tests them faster than anyone, often with little thought about the consequences, his advisers tell us. Only courts or markets, or his quest for good press, can rein him in.

By then, the tariffs are in place, the war has started, the ally is insulted.

You can sort his choices into three buckets:

1. Rule of law as weapon: Trump has pointed the machinery of the federal government at his enemies while enriching himself and his family.

He sent ICE into American cities underprepared and with a shifting mandate — cheering the made-for-TV chest-thumping, even as agents jailed and deported some U.S. citizens.

He unleashed the Justice Department against critics, with indictments so thin that grand juries and Republican-appointed judges tossed some of them — while he rewarded supporters who claim they were targets of government "weaponization."

He let family and friends profit from the presidency.

2. Economy by improvisation: It often feels like Trump is running the world's largest economy on gut feelings and Truth Social posts.

He leveled haphazard, unpredictable tariffs on friends and adversaries alike — ignoring Congress, the courts and the Constitution in doing so.

He pressured a sitting Fed chair to force interest rates lower, with his DOJ going so far as to open a criminal investigation, breaking a half-century norm of central bank independence.

He announced 50-year mortgages and $2,000 tariff dividend checks on Truth Social without a detailed policy framework or legislative language.

3. Power projection on personal whim: Trump often seems to be running U.S. foreign policy and the military via social media — by instinct, with an eye on the visuals.

He taunted lifelong allies — NATO as a whole; Ukraine, Canada, Denmark, individually, among others — impulsively and personally, turning decades-old partnerships into punchlines.

He launched a war against Iran, at Israel's urging, without a clear plan for the long, brutal, expensive aftermath now unfolding.

He permitted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to oust the Army's top uniformed officer and the Navy secretary during the war.

By the numbers: Nate Silver's polling average has the president underwater by 19 points, a second-term low and right around the aftermath of the Jan. 6 attacks.

A CNN poll this month found 70% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy — a benchmark that never crossed 50% in his first term, even during the pandemic.

Between the lines: Trump's pattern is to take a hard line, then relent when bond yields turn bad or MAGA influencers balk. Social media dubbed this TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out. But the pullback doesn't erase the act.

Supply chains have already moved. Allies have already hedged. An enemy in a war of choice still gets a vote on when it ends.

The bottom line: Much of the policy Trump puts in place can be undone by the next Democratic president. That's the result of acting alone, without leaning on Congress to pass laws.

But the world won't instantly trust America again. Generals don't just come out of forced retirement. Institutions, once bent, don't always snap cleanly back into place.

📱 Watch a "Behind the Curtain" video: Jim and Mike discuss Trump's ever-expanding uses of power. (Executive producer: Jimmy Shelton)

📈 If you're a CEO or on a CEO's team: Ask to join Jim's new weekly Axios C-Suite newsletter.

Behind the Curtain: Trump's irreversible choices

Institutions, once bent, don't always snap cleanly back into place.

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Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

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Mike Needham, a longtime aide to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has been promoted to a top national security job in the White House, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Needham's new post as assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser is one of the more important jobs in a Trump administration consumed with foreign policy challenges from Iran to China, Cuba and Venezuela.

Zoom in: Needham replaces Robert Gabriel, whom White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles last week called "a trusted confidant and dear friend to me and his White House colleagues."

Like Gabriel, Needham has good relations in the White House, including with Vice President JD Vance's team.

"Everyone likes Mike. He gets the policy. He gets the politics," said a senior administration official.

Scoop: Rubio aide promoted to top White House national security post

He'll slide into one of the more important jobs in a Trump administration consumed with foreign policy challenges.

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