U.S. China trade war

Economic predictors are ignoring politics at their peril

Illustration of trend line tangled in U.S. capital building
Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

When it comes to making predictions about the world economy, policymakers and asset managers are whiffing because they are failing to account for the increasingly dysfunctional state of global politics.

The big picture: The world's top economic concerns — Brexit, the U.S.-China trade war — are the result of policy decisions rather than unavoidable shocks.

Mnuchin: U.S. and China should face repercussions in trade deal

Secretary of the Treasury Steve Mnuchin
Photo: Zach Gibson/Getty Images

Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin says the U.S. government is willing to accept penalties if they don't fulfill their commitments to the U.S.-China trade deal, reports Bloomberg.

Details: At an International Monetary Fund meeting in Washington, D.C., Mnuchin said both countries have commitments they are working to honor, and both should face consequences if they don't uphold their respective ends of the bargain, per Bloomberg. The U.S. and China are currently in talks about the possibility of holding more in-person meetings and Mnuchin has said progress is being made to put an end to the 9-month trade and tariff war.

Go deeper: A real U.S.-China trade deal is a long way away