This year's Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be below average in storm activity for the first time in more than a decade, NOAA meteorologists said Thursday in their annual forecast.

Why it matters: Residents should still take the season seriously and prepare now, officials stressed.

• "It's very important to understand that it only takes one," NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs told reporters.

The big picture: This year will likely see eight to 14 named storms and three to six hurricanes, one to three of which will be Category 3 or higher, Jacobs told reporters.

• That's in line with Colorado State University's forecast, which called for below-normal activity with 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

How it works: The main driver behind the forecast is a high likelihood of El Niño conditions, Jacobs said.

• El Niño occurs when water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual.
• Those conditions can lead to high-altitude winds over the Atlantic that make it harder for hurricanes to form.

Flashback: Forecasters predicted above-average activity for last year's season, which ultimately produced 13 named storms. None made landfall in the U.S.

• The last time NOAA predicted a below-average season was in 2015, lead hurricane season forecaster Matthew Rosencrans said.

What they're saying: Still, every hurricane season is different, and even less-severe storms can cause major impacts, officials said. NOAA's category system only accounts for wind, not storm surge or inland flooding.

• Forecasters also emphasized the dangers of rapidly intensifying storms, such as last year's Hurricane Melissa.
• "You think you might have a week on your timeline," National Weather Service director Ken Graham said, when the "reality is you only have days. That's why that preparedness really is absolutely everything."

What we're watching: NOAA officials previewed several technological advances they said would help local emergency officials better prepare for impacts on the ground.

• That includes the agency's Flood Inundation Mapping tool, which provides street-level visualizations of flood waters in near real time.
• The tool will cover the entire U.S. by the end of September, Graham said.

Spread the word

The Tampa City Council voted 4-3 Thursday to enter into a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Hillsborough County and the Rays to build a $2.3 billion stadium at Hillsborough College.

Why it matters: It's the Rays' second sweep this week — and a close one, at that.

• The first came against the Orioles on Wednesday. The second came off the field, winning approvals from two local governments and a ground lease from Hillsborough College.

Driving the news: The vote came at the end of nearly a five-hour meeting, in which fans in Rays merchandise aggressively advocated for the deal and vowed that those who voted "no" would not be forgotten.

• The "no" votes came from council members Charlie Miranda, Guido Maniscalco and Lynn Hurtak, who took issue with using the half-cent sales tax, arguing it was not intended for a new stadium.
• Council member Bill Carlson, who said he doesn't believe in private-sector subsidies, made it clear he would vote against the stadium deal in the future, but voted "yes" to help the Rays secure state funding.
• Miranda shouted at Carlson afterward, calling him a "sellout."

Zoom in: The memorandum calls for the City of Tampa and its community redevelopment agency (CRA) to contribute $180 million toward the new ballpark, compared to the county's $796 million.

• Of that amount, $80 million would come from the city's share of the half-cent sales tax, primarily earmarked for infrastructure serving the stadium, such as roadways and sidewalks.
• The CRA would cover the remaining $100 million with revenues generated by the stadium district, which includes both the ballpark and the mixed-use development planned alongside it.

Between the lines: Negotiations are far from over, and it appears the Rays still don't have the votes needed to get a final deal across the finish line in the Tampa City Council.

• The greatest threat to a new Rays stadium is time. The team had aimed to complete the deal by June 1, but conceded (after some prodding) that it would be satisfied with the memorandum.

What's next: All eyes are on lawmakers in Tallahassee, who are at work on the state budget, and whether these votes move them enough to provide the funds requested for Hillsborough College's million-dollar makeover.

• The reimagined campus is central to the deal.

Share this story

🍻 Beloved St. Pete brewery Green Bench is opening a tasting room next month at 200 N. Tampa Street. (Tampa Bay Times)

🗳️ Gov. Ron DeSantis announced a special election to replace Sen. Ed Hooper, a Clearwater Republican planning to resign later this year from his seat representing north Pinellas County and southwest Pasco County. (Times)

• The special election will run in tandem with regular election dates, with a primary on Aug. 18 and a general on Nov. 3, if needed.
• While no candidates have officially filed to run, Pasco Sheriff Chris Nocco announced his campaign the same day Hooper shared his resignation plans.

Remember those American oystercatcher chicks that survived the Madeira Beach roof collapse a couple of weeks ago?

• They're doing great, Audubon Florida biologist Abby McKay told us this week.
• Well — two of them are. The third is no longer with us, likely snagged by a predator, McKay said.

Yes, but: It's pretty rare that all three survive, with the parents busy defending them from crows and flying off to bring food home, McKay said.

• With the remaining two growing more adventurous, McKay helped build a fence on the roof to keep them from falling into the hole.

What's next: The chicks should start learning how to fly in the next couple of weeks.

Go deeper: A guide to Tampa Bay's nesting beach birds

👋 Kathryn here. Something really cool happened at an audition I went to this week for "All Together Now," a fundraiser show for St. Petersburg City Theatre.

• I met Meredith White, an Axios Tampa Bay reader who was inspired to get back into singing after reading about the Christmas caroling group I was a part of in the newsletter.

It made my whole day — honestly, maybe my whole career? Should I retire?

✨ The best part: Meredith has a BEAUTIFUL voice!

• I'm so glad she's singing again.