NOAA forecasts quieter hurricane season but warns: Prepare now
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This year's Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be below average in storm activity for the first time in more than a decade, NOAA meteorologists said Thursday in their annual forecast.
Why it matters: Residents should still take the season seriously and prepare now, officials stressed.
- "It's very important to understand that it only takes one," NOAA administrator Neil Jacobs told reporters.
The big picture: This year will likely see eight to 14 named storms and three to six hurricanes, one to three of which will be Category 3 or higher, Jacobs told reporters.
- That's in line with Colorado State University's forecast, which called for below-normal activity with 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
How it works: The main driver behind the forecast is a high likelihood of El Niño conditions, Jacobs said.
- El Niño occurs when water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual.
- Those conditions can lead to high-altitude winds over the Atlantic that make it harder for hurricanes to form.
Flashback: Forecasters predicted above-average activity for last year's season, which ultimately produced 13 named storms. None made landfall in the U.S.
- The last time NOAA predicted a below-average season was in 2015, lead hurricane season forecaster Matthew Rosencrans said.
- That season produced 11 named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes, according to the National Hurricane Center.
What they're saying: Still, every hurricane season is different, and even less-severe storms can cause major impacts, officials said. NOAA's category system only accounts for wind, not storm surge or inland flooding.
- Forecasters also emphasized the dangers of rapidly intensifying storms, such as last year's Hurricane Melissa.
- "You think you might have a week on your timeline," National Weather Service director Ken Graham said, when the "reality is you only have days. That's why that preparedness really is absolutely everything."
Context: Atlantic hurricane season officially starts June 1, but storms can form any time.
- NHC began its daily tropical outlook May 15, and so far, all has been quiet in the Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic.
- Historically, the most active period for strong storms in the Gulf and the Atlantic is August and September.
What we're watching: NOAA officials previewed several technological advances they said would help local emergency officials better prepare for impacts on the ground.
- That includes the agency's Flood Inundation Mapping tool, which provides street-level visualizations of flood waters in near real time.
- The tool will cover the entire U.S. by the end of September, Graham said.
ICYMI: The agency also updated its cone of uncertainty with color coding that shows a storm's potential inland impacts.
Go deeper: How to prep for 2026 hurricane season
Carlie Kollath Wells contributed to this report.