Axios Sneak Peek

October 18, 2023
Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,095 words ... 4 minutes.
📅 Today marked an unusual alignment of the political calendar:
- President Biden has been in office for 1,000 days.
- Russia has been at war with Ukraine for 600 days.
- Government funding runs out in exactly one month.
- The Iowa caucuses are in 90 days.
1 big thing: Revenge of the moderates

After spending years in Congress as a thorn in the side of GOP leadership, Rep Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) finally got a taste of what it's like trying to cobble together an unruly majority.
Why it matters: The founding Freedom Caucus co-chair came closer to the speakership than many could have imagined, but he still fell 20 votes short of what he needed — matching former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) worst ballot during January's historic 15-round election.
- This time, though, it was an eclectic coalition of Biden-district Republicans, institutionalists, McCarthy allies and other assorted rebels who stood in the way — not the usual gang of conservative hardliners.
- All 212 Democrats, meanwhile, remained united in support of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), who has received the most votes in 12 of the 16 speaker ballots held this Congress.
State of play: Jordan is staying in the fight but has delayed the second ballot until 11 am ET tomorrow, after initially telling reporters he planned to hold it this evening.
- The delay will give Jordan a chance to keep whipping votes — and also hand more time to Fox News and conservative influencers to continue to carry out an aggressive pressure campaign against the holdouts.
- But that tactic could easily backfire: "The millisecond anybody tries to intimidate me is the moment I no longer have flexibility," said Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), who voted for House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.). "I have no intention of moving."
Between the lines: Jordan isn't working with an unlimited timetable like McCarthy was, with some Republicans speculating he may be bleeding support between ballots.
- "Let's see what happens," Rep. Maria Salazar (R-Fla.) told Axios of her plans on the second ballot after voting for Jordan. "No one really knows."
- One House Republican who spoke on the condition of anonymity predicted Jordan will pick up "not more than 5-7" of his detractors on the second vote — which would still put him short of the gavel.
What we're hearing: Bipartisan discussions about how to end the two-week speaker vacancy are growing in seriousness, given the very real concern no candidate can obtain 217 Republican votes, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.
- Jeffries told reporters today there have been "informal conversations" he hopes "will accelerate this evening," given the sizable bloc of opposition Jordan faced in his first public test today.
- All eyes are on Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.). He views his role as constrained to electing a new speaker, but centrists in both parties have pushed to empower him to oversee legislative business.
2. 🇮🇱 Spiraling stakes for Biden's wartime visit
People stand over bodies of Palestinians killed by a blast at the Ahli Arab hospital in Gaza. Photo: Dawood Nemer/AFP via Getty Images
Biden's arrival in Israel tomorrow comes against the backdrop of a dramatic escalation of the war in Gaza, raising the stakes of an unprecedented wartime visit the world will be closely watching.
Why it matters: The visit — intended as a show of solidarity with Israel and a warning to Iran and Hezbollah — will be clouded by the bombing of a hospital in Gaza, which the Hamas-run Health Ministry says has killed at least 500 people.
- The Israeli Defense Forces have denied involvement in the blast, citing intelligence that allegedly points to a failed rocket launch by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad militant group.
- Hamas and PIJ have blamed an Israeli airstrike for the massacre, triggering condemnations from Arab leaders and mass protests in the occupied West Bank, Jordan and across the region.
In a statement aboard Air Force One, Biden said he was "outraged and deeply saddened" by the blast and that he had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Jordan's King Abdullah II.
- Biden did not say who was to blame for the explosion but directed his national security team to "continue gathering information about what exactly happened."

The big picture: Biden's trip has already been affected by the political fallout from the blast, which is still rapidly unfurling.
- Jordan canceled a summit it was hosting with Arab leaders, including Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas — scuttling one of the two stops Biden was planning to make along with Tel Aviv.
- Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) blamed Israel for the attack and demanded Biden call for a ceasefire, which he is unlikely to do before Israel begins its expected ground operation into Gaza.
What to watch: Lebanon-based Hezbollah called for a "day of unprecedented anger" against Israel and Biden's visit tomorrow, as fears rise of regional escalation.
- The White House has privately been discussing the possibility of using military force if Hezbollah attacks Israel with its huge arsenal of rockets.
3. 💸 Scoop: New Hamas sanctions
A woman looks at a wall of photos in Tel Aviv of hostages kidnapped and taken to Gaza by Hamas. Photo: Amir Levy/Getty Images
The Treasury Department is preparing to announce new sanctions against several Hamas leaders this week as part of the U.S. response to the militant group's attack on Israel, Axios' Barak Ravid and Hans Nichols report.
Why it matters: Hamas relies on global financial networks to fund its operations, which are based out of the Gaza Strip. The sanctions aim to disrupt that flow of money.
The big picture: Hamas has been a designated terrorist organization in the U.S., the EU and other Western countries for several decades.
- While Hamas leaders don't have assets in the U.S., the sanctions will increase pressure on some of the countries that host them, like Qatar.
- This week's set of sanctions is likely the first batch in several rounds to come, according to a U.S. official.
Behind the scenes: Hamas, which is backed by Iran, has been using NGOs and charities to fundraise and move money around the world for years.
- Hamas also generates revenue from secret investment portfolios and a network of global assets estimated to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars, according to a Treasury official.
4. 📸 Pic du jour: The worst job in politics

Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) voted for House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) today, becoming the only Republican to vote to oust McCarthy as speaker while also opposing Jordan on the first ballot.
- Asked by CNN if he actually wanted Emmer to be speaker, Buck responded: "No, I don't. I don't like Tom Emmer. I figure this would be the worst job in America. Mike Rowe would not want to do this for his TV show. This is a terrible job."
📬 Thanks for reading tonight. This newsletter was copy edited by Kathie Bozanich.
Sign up for Axios Sneak Peek

Take a look at both ends of Penn Ave — and our best scoops

