Former President Trump's 11-point victory in New Hampshire has been upstaged not just by Nikki Haley's refusal to drop out, but by a set of flashing red alarms about his weaknesses with independents and moderate voters.

Why it matters: Trump, like any candidate, will need a broad coalition to win in November — one that casts a far wider net than the core MAGA base responsible for his dominant victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.

• As the primary gives way to the longest general election campaign in modern history, there's no indication that Trump will moderate or change to the degree necessary to bring back swing voters he lost in 2020.
• Even if he does, will it be enough to sway the skeptics alienated by his legal issues and years of public bombast? New Hampshire suggests the reality of Trump's challenges will soon become impossible to ignore.

Zoom in: As MSNBC's Steve Kornacki pointed out, New Hampshire's GOP primary has never seen a wider gap between the preferences of independents and Republican voters than last night's results:

• Trump won Republican voters 74% to 25%, while Haley won independents 58% to 39%, according to CNN's exit polls.
• 83% of Haley voters — and 42% of voters overall — said they would not consider Trump to be fit for office if he were convicted of a crime.
• Most importantly, Fox News' voter analysis found that 35% of New Hampshire's voters would be so dissatisfied with a Trump nomination that they would not vote for him in November.

The other side: New Hampshire's unique primary system allowed Democrats to vote in the GOP primary if they switched their party registration by October, suggesting some of these voters were always a lost cause for Trump.

• And to be sure, President Biden faces his own general election challenges — he's bleeding support from minorities and young voters, and his age remains a top concern for many voters.
• That's why the Biden campaign is painting November's election as a binary choice between the president and Trump more than a referendum.

Between the lines: The warning signs for Trump run deeper than just the data — just look at the rhetoric yesterday from his allies:

• Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who appeared on stage with Trump for his victory speech, said the GOP is "completely eradicating" any Republican who doesn't adapt to Trump's policies.
• Asked how he'll get skeptical Haley supporters to vote for him in November, Trump told reporters: "They're going to all vote for me again. ... And I'm not sure we need too many."

The bottom line: The suggestion that New Hampshire was Never Trumpers' "last stand" misses the point: These voters may have lost the GOP primary, but there are signs they could have the last laugh in November.

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Nikki Haley's unanswered challenge to debate Trump one-on-one reflects a new political reality.

• Sixty years after Kennedy vs. Nixon made presidential debates a television sensation, voters can no longer take them for granted, Axios' Erin Doherty reports.

Why it matters: Trump appears set to coast to the nomination without ever debating his Republican opponents, a controversial strategy vindicated by his dominance in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Driving the news: Looking ahead, three general election presidential debates have been scheduled for 2024 — but it's not clear whether they will happen.

• The RNC has said the eventual GOP nominee can't participate in debates hosted and organized by the independent Commission on Presidential Debates.
• Biden has not yet committed to participating, even as Trump has said he's eager to debate his likely Democratic opponent.
• Some Biden campaign staffers are still upset over the 2020 election debates, when the commission allowed the Trump campaign to flout some of its rules over debate protocols and COVID-19 precautions.

The big picture: Trump is not the first presidential candidate to skip a debate.

• Richard Nixon sat out of the debates in 1968 and 1972, and Jimmy Carter skipped the first of two debates against his GOP challenger Ronald Reagan in 1980.
• There were no debates from 1960 to 1976, but there have been at least two debates during every cycle since they resumed.

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The United Auto Workers union endorsed Biden for re-election today, ending its monthslong holdout over concerns about his electric vehicle policies, Axios' Nathan Bomey reports.

Why it matters: With about 1 million members, including active and retired workers, the UAW remains a powerful force in progressive politics.

Driving the news: UAW president Shawn Fain hailed Biden's leadership, praising the president for standing with the union during its strike against the Detroit Three automakers.

• "This choice is clear," Fain said. "Joe Biden bet on the American worker, while Donald Trump blamed the American worker."
• "Donald Trump is a scab!" he added to raucous cheers at a UAW political conference in Washington, D.C.

Context: The endorsement came after the UAW scored record contracts from General Motors, Ford and Stellantis following an unprecedented simultaneous strike against all three automakers.

• During the strike, Fain said the White House was "afraid" of the union's momentum, and he personally challenged Biden to join the picket line.
• Biden quickly accepted the invitation and appeared alongside Fain on a picket line outside a GM facility in Michigan in September.

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Despite not appearing on the New Hampshire ballot, the Biden write-in campaign is currently dominating the Democratic primary with 56% of the vote.

• 10% of write-in votes had yet to be processed as of the sending of this newsletter.
• Concerns that Biden would face a strong rebuke from Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) or the organized pro-Palestinian push to write in "ceasefire" ultimately did not bear out.