Axios Markets

June 01, 2023
π Morning! Jamie Dimon for prez? Some on Wall Street would love to see itβ¦
- Oh, and the House passed the debt ceiling bill last night β itβll head to the Senate soon.
Today's newsletter is 1,023 words, 4 minutes.
1 big thing: Big Tech muscles the market higher


A hypertrophied tech sector is carrying the stock market once again, Matt writes.
The big picture: The S&P 500 is up 8.9% so far in 2023, or 9.7% including dividends. But the lion's share of that increase is due to the surging prices of a few of the largest companies.
State of play: The big five that are responsible for the vast majority of the stock market's 2023 gains are Apple (up 36% this year), Microsoft (37%), Alphabet (39%), Amazon (44%), and current stock market darling Nvidia, which has surged 159% on AI-related excitement.
- Without them, the overall market (including dividend payments) would be up just 1.5% this year, according to data provided by Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
- If you also remove the contributions from the two other largest tech companies β Meta (up 120% in 2023) and Tesla (66%) β the S&P 500 would be slightly underwater for the year, Silverblatt says.
Be smart: The S&P 500 β the most widely used gauge of the stock market β is a market-cap-weighted index. That means the companies with the biggest market caps have the biggest impact on how the overall index moves.
And this year, they're up big, thanks to a goldilocks-like backdrop of falling inflation, solid economic growth, and a good, old-fashioned high-tech hype hootenanny about an emerging technology.
- The flurry of excitement over "generative AI" has supercharged shares of Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, and Nvidia, which have close ties to the technology.
- Meanwhile, Apple's and Amazon's respective romps were driven largely by remarkably solid earnings that defied earlier expectations for a consumer slowdown.
- These companies have also benefited from the typical tailwind that tech-centric, "growth" companies catch when the market smells a pending shift away from rate hikes.
The other side: Some see the dominance of the stock market by these few companies as a warning sign that the market as a whole isn't actually doing that well β and of how vulnerable it is to any weaknesses in these five.
- The top five companies' share of the S&P index is incredibly large, relative to history (see the chart below).
Yes, but: It's typical for a small number of companies to be outsized drivers of the stock market's gains.
- A few years ago it was the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google β as Alphabet was then known).
- In the late 1990s, the "Four Horsemen" β Microsoft, Cisco, Oracle and Intel β led the market's charge; in the late 1960s and early 1970s, it was the fast-growing "Nifty Fifty."
The bottom line: If investors hope to recover quickly from last year's ugly 19% downdraft, fast-growing tech companies will be doing most of the heavy lifting.
2. Rise of the megacaps


4. π Charted: Phew...


This is what it looks like when the bond market exhales, Matt writes.
Driving the news: Yields plunged on U.S. Treasury securities set to mature immediately in the wake of the X-date, or June 5, when the government estimates it won't have enough cash on hand to pay its obligations.
- For example: The yield on the T-bill due June 6 dove from a peak of nearly 7% a week ago, to about 5.4% on Wednesday, according to bond trading platform Tradeweb.
Be smart: Bond yields move in the opposite direction of prices, so this means that investor demand has pushed up the prices of these bills.
- That undid some of the sharp tumble in prices experienced over the last few weeks, as investors avoided owning the government I.O.U.s potentially at the leading edge of a U.S. default if a deal to raise the debt ceiling wasn't reached.
The latest: The House of Representatives voted late yesterday to approve a deal struck between President Biden and House leader Kevin McCarthy; the Senate is expected to vote over the coming weekend.
The bottom line: The collapse in yields on select short-term Treasuries shows that as far as the bond market is concerned β and as we've pointed out previously, markets weren't really that concerned β the debt ceiling deal is pretty much done and dusted, and we can all move on in with our lives.
5. The menopause gap at work
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
There's a big disconnect between employers and women over a somewhat taboo topic: menopause, Emily writes.
- 76% of HR benefits managers said they discuss menopause-related issues with employees, but just 3% of women employees would say they've talked about these issues with HR, finds a pair of surveys released by Bank of America this morning.
Why it matters: There's increasing awareness that menopause and its symptoms can push women out of the workforce just as they're at the top of their fields.
- Over the past year, the issue has gained attention from employersΒ who are rethinking the health benefits they offer women, as Axios' Tina Reed reported.
- It doesn't look like employees are getting the message.
Zoom in: BofA, in partnership with the nonprofit National Menopause Foundation, conducted two surveys in February and March.
- One survey targeted 500 HR benefits managers at companies with at least 1,000 employees; the second polled 2,000 women, ages 40β65, employed full time at a company with 1,000 or more employees.
What they found: 71% of HR benefits managers feel positive about their company's menopause culture compared to 32% of employees.
- Employers say they do offer some menopause-specific benefits, but women are often unaware they exist.
- For example, health insurance might cover treatments like hormone replacement therapy but women aren't aware, said Lorna Sabbia, head of retirement and personal wealth solutions at Bank of America, who worked on the report.
- She said that BofA offers support and resource advice, through Maven Clinic, a virtual health care app.
Of note: This is an issue that comes with a lot of stigma, which could explain some of the disconnect.
- 58% of women surveyed said they don't feel comfortable talking about menopause in the workplace because it feels too personal β and they're also concerned about being judged as "old."
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Axios Markets is edited by Kate Marino and copy edited by Mickey Meece.
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