Axios Markets

September 01, 2023
π Folks, some news: It's September. We don't know where the summer went either.
Soon, we'll get a fresh jobs report. But first, today's newsletter is 1,193 words, 4Β½ minutes.
1 big thing: Women's "shocking" workforce return


Defying all expectations, the percentage of women in the workforce with young children is significantly higher than it's ever been, finds a new report from the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution.
Why it matters: This could represent a "level shift" for working mothers βΒ with potential lifetime consequences in terms of higher earnings and improved career trajectories, Emily writes.
Driving the news: In June, 70.4% of women with children under 5 were in the workforce β compared to a peak of 68.9% before the pandemic, per the report.
- "In labor force participation rate terms, that's really big," said Lauren Bauer, a fellow at Brookings, who co-authored the report.
What they found: The paper looked at participation rates for all women, those with elementary school-aged kids and those with teens. No other categories have rebounded past their pre-pandemic levels.
- The numbers surprised Bauer, who called them "shocking." Along with many others, she'd worried that the pandemic would push more mothers out of the workforce.
What happened: More research needs to be done, but it looks like a big factor is remote work, which enabled more women to stay attached to the workforce.
- The women who were highly educated, and more likely to work from home, were among those more likely to be in the workforce now than pre-pandemic.
- Plus, as other research has found, the pandemic βΒ and ability to work remotely β may also have led more families to decide to have babies.
Big picture: Advocates for women in the workforce have long argued that more flexibility at work would allow mothers to hang on to their jobs.
- It's easy to understand why βΒ if you're able to telework, you can handle a call from daycare to come pick up a feverish child, manage a midday doctor appointment, or take someone to a playdate.
- If you can't get that flexibility, you're more likely to leave a high-demand full-time job to go part-time or exit the workforce.
Reality check: Overall, mothers with very young kids continue to be less likely to be in the workforce than women with older children β or those with no kids, whose labor force participation rate is about 80%.
What's next: COVID appears to have put new norms in place that gave some workers βΒ not just women βΒ more flexibility. The question now is: Are these norms here to stay?
- Certainly, there are a lot of CEOs (typically men who may not be thinking of these kinds of macro consequences) who are eager to curtail remote work.
The bottom line: Typically, when women have a baby that's when they get off track in their career, said Bauer. And that affects the rest of their lives in terms of income, job selection, promotions, etc.
- It's possible that pattern's been disrupted βΒ and the impact from that will be huge.
2. Catch up quick
π’οΈ Russia faces domestic fuel crunch, braces for more shortages. (Reuters)
π‘ Home prices in the U.K. fell at the fastest pace since 2009. (FT)
π Swift, Beyonce, Barbie wind-down may hurt the U.S. economy this fall. (Yahoo Finance)
3. Flexible work boosts female workers
Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios
For Americans sitting out of the labor market, flexible work arrangements were ranked the most important consideration in deciding whether to take a job, writes Emily from a new report out this morning.
Why it matters: A survey from the Bipartisan Policy Center helps explain why more women are in the labor force these days. As I write above, remote work has been key to raising women's labor force participation.
- It also sheds light on how the U.S. could get more folks into the workforce β as the country contends with a tight labor market and the prospect of long-term worker shortages.
Methodology: The survey of 2,165 non-working U.S. adults, age 20-54, was conducted in July. Full-time students, age 20-24, were excluded. About a quarter of respondents were looking for work, and the rest were not.
By the numbers: Personal health and family caregiving, primarily for children, are the main reasons that 72% of non-working-age adults aren't looking for a job.
- Two-thirds of the people not looking for work were women, and 43% of those women cited reasons related to children, compared to 16% of men.
Zoom in: After flexible work the next most-cited benefits to entice workers off the sidelines were pay, followed by family and medical leave.
- "That to me stood out," said Ben Gitis, associate director of economic policy and the Bipartisan Policy Center. Folks are essentially saying flexibility and paid leave are just as important as pay, he added.
For the record: Gitis said his group has been working on and off the Hill to push for a bipartisan paid family leave policy, which they believe would help get more workers off the sidelines.
4. Stocks' dog days of summer


Stocks posted their second monthly decline of the year in August, though an end-of-the-month rally helped the S&P 500 cut its losses significantly.
Driving the news: The S&P 500 ended the month down 1.8%. It's still up 17.4% for the year, Matt writes.
- The Nasdaq Composite index dropped 2.2% in August, putting a small dent in an otherwise stellar year. It's up 34%.
Yes but: At its worst, the S&P 500 was down nearly 5% during the month.
- At moments, the Nasdaq was down almost 8%.
How it works: Along came a series of sunny reports suggesting continued improvement in key drivers of inflation. That helped boost the spirits of investors who hope the Federal Reserve is done with rate hikes, which clobbered stocks last year.
By the numbers: Energy was the sole gainer of the S&P's 11 sectors in August, rising 1.3%, thanks to an increase in oil and natural gas prices.
- Utilities shares were the worst performing part of the market during the month β down 7% β suffering from both higher energy costs, and growing investor uneasiness about the exposure power companies have to seemingly random climate-related risks.
- Just look at Hawaiian Electric, in the aftermath of Maui's recent catastrophic fires, which was down more than 60% in August.
What we're watching: The ongoing dance among inflation data, economic growth β August jobs data is out today β and commentary from the Fed, all of which can call the tune for investors.
5. π€ Charted: Americans sound miserable, but they sure are buying a lot of boats


Spending on pleasure boats continues to hover near remarkable highs.
Why it matters: You don't buy a boat unless you're fairly confident the economic wind is at your back, so this is a good sign that Americans β despite what they tell pollsters β are actually feeling pretty good.
- It's a bit of a reality check on what polling says is the predominant American mood of the moment: diffident and dissatisfied verging on despondent.
- The boat-buying binge β which began during the Covid crisis β is also another strike against the once dominant "looming recession" narrative.
By the way: Before you cynics jump down our throats, Axios' Joann Muller, who's reported in depth on the trend, says this isn't just about the rich.
- "It's not the yacht-owning one-percenters responsible for America's booming boat economy," she wrote in June. "Rather, it's the vast numbers of regular folks fishing, water-skiing, sailing and jet-skiing, according to the National Marine Manufacturers Association."
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Today's Axios Markets was edited by Javier E. David and copy edited by Carolyn DiPaolo.
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