Axios Markets

August 30, 2023
βοΈ Good morning. Stocks are skipping toward September amid growing optimism that inflation β and Fed rate hikes β are behind us.
- Today's newsletter is 793 words, 3 minutes.
1 big thing: Markets applaud progress on inflation


Stocks posted their best day of the month yesterday as housing and job markets data showed steady progress on price pressures, Matt writes.
Driving the news: It was the strongest of three consecutive upbeat sessions.
- The Nasdaq Composite index jumped 1.7%.
- The S&P 500 climbed 1.5%.
Between the lines: The rally got rolling as U.S. government bond yields β also known as interest rates β fell sharply around 10am following the release of a report that showed more cooling in the job market.
Be smart: Tight labor markets have helped keep wages high, feeding through into inflation.
- So, a decline in job openings is considered an important indication that inflationary pressures are continuing to ease.
- Additional readings on home price inflation (more on that below) added to the good price.
The bottom line: Investors are hopeful that the steady decline in inflationary pressures could keep the Fed from further interest rate hikes.
- That could turn this year's stock market rally into a full-on bull market.
π 2. Stocks set to finish August strong


Investors will want to see further progress in the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, which will be released tomorrow as part of the batch of July data on personal spending and income.
3. Catch-up quick
π 4. Charted: Home price inflation slowing down


Home prices are still rising, but at a slower pace, Matt writes.
Why it matters: Home prices factor into major inflation gauges like the Consumer Price Index but with a significant lag.
- Still, it's a sign that there's less price pressure in the pipeline.
The latest: Two key indexes released yesterday told a similar story about housing inflation returning to a simmer, a welcome development after the way it boiled over in 2021 and 2022.
- The FHFA index of home prices showed an increase of 3.0% over the prior year in June, the most recent data available.
- Separately the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index of the 20 largest housing markets showed a 1.2% decline in June, compared to the prior year.
Yes, but: As any homebuyer can tell you, affordability is a question of home prices and mortgage interest rates β not to mention taxes and insurance.
The bottom line: With mortgage rates now above 7%, and home prices continuing to rise β albeit at a slower pace β Americans are facing the least affordable housing market in almost 40 years.
5. Employers flex muscles, workers push back
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Companies keep flexing their muscles to get more bodies back into the office, but employees remain as emboldened as ever in pushing back, Axios' Javier E. David writes.
Driving the news: Two New York Times unions are challenging a policy that proposes monitoring employee badge swipes, Axios' Sara Fischer reported exclusively. Meanwhile, Amazon is ramping up pressure on workers to report to the office more frequently.
Why it matters: The status quo of high occupancy offices that existed prior to COVID-19 is unlikely to return anytime soon, if ever.
- But that's not stopping employers from becoming more stringent in enforcing in-person work policies, a fact reflected by work-from-home's slowly waning popularity.
Zoom in: Over the last year, many companies have tried to draw a line in the sand of at least three in-office days per week, which the NYT and Amazon are trying to enforce.
- Meanwhile, a softening jobs market suggests workers may not have as much leverage as they've enjoyed over the last few years.
The pandemic era's acute labor shortage has meant employers have had to demonstrate an uncharacteristic amount of forbearance for employees' wishes while enticing them with perks, higher pay, and, of course, flexible work.
- Now, employees who developed new routines and moved away during the pandemic are insistent on maintaining their newfound flexibility.
By the numbers: A Monster poll on relocation shows that while 75% of workers surveyed would relocate if a job asked them to, 25% would rather quit than move.
- And underscoring how WFH remains a staple of post-pandemic life, at least 40% cited remote or hybrid work as a motivating factor behind employment, according to Monster.
Yes, but: Some companies are trying to carve out a middle ground. J.M. Smucker is trying out a novel return-to-office approach that designates 22 "core" weeks per year, the Wall Street Journal reports.
- Smucker's employees can live wherever they want as long as they pay to get to the company's campus in Orville, Ohio, during those weeks. The plan basically means workers can be on-premises as little as six days per month.
The bottom line: There's more than one way to skin a cat β or coax recalcitrant workers back into near-empty offices.
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Today's Axios Markets was edited by Javier E. David and copy edited by Mickey Meece.
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