A new analysis of the 2022 midterms suggests Democrats kept just enough Latino voter support to win key state and federal races in Arizona, Nevada, and Texas while faltering in Florida, Russell writes.

Why it matters: Democrats have not lost as much ground with Latino voters as some predicted — at least for now, according to preliminary findings by the research firm Equis that were shared with Axios.

• Democrats staved off significant GOP wins in Texas while holding ground in Arizona and Nevada.

Details: U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) surpassed slightly the percentage of votes that President Biden got in 2020 in some Hispanic-majority districts, beating Trump-backed challenger Blake Masters (R), the analysis found. He performed as well as or slightly poorer than the president in other districts.

• Hispanic voter support for Nevada Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, the nation's only Latina U.S. senator, was slightly behind Biden in 2020, according to the analysis. But just enough Latinos voted for her, helping her win by a tight margin.
• In South Texas, U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores (R) lost her bid for re-election after winning a special election in a traditionally Democratic seat, showing that the rightward shift in that region isn't settled.

Yes, but: Democrats have continually lost ground among Latino voters in Florida.

• Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has made major gains — he lost Miami-Dade County, the state's most Hispanic county — by 20 percentage points in 2018 but won by about 11 percentage points in November.
• Early signs suggest that GOP gains in Florida were greatest among non-Cuban American, non-Puerto Rican Latino voters, the analysis found. But it's unclear why.
• Democratic gubernatorial candidates in Arizona and Nevada had slightly less support than Biden in 2020. It wasn't a massive shift, but enough to help the GOP capture the Nevada governor's seat.

What they're saying: "Whereas in Florida the shifts among Latino voters could be measured in yards, elsewhere it was a matter of inches," said Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Labs.

• Odio added that Democrats did just enough among Latino voters outside of Florida to win the races they needed to hold off a national red wave.
• "I think the top line is that Latinos live in a perpetual persuasion window," Tory Gavito, president and CEO of left-leaning Way to Win, told Axios.

But, but, but: Latino voters saved Democrats in 2022 mainly because Republicans seem to be about "chaos, mobs, and MAGA," Gavito said.

• Democrats will need to do a better job at explaining how their politics help Latinos, she added.

Read more

A group of largely Latino academics has launched a campaign to expose violence committed by a storied Texas force ahead of its bicentennial, Russell writes.

Why it matters: The Texas Rangers, which currently exist as a division of the state's Department of Public Safety, have been romanticized in Hollywood renderings and Old West novels, but their legacy of racial violence has been largely ignored.

Details: Refusing to Forget, a coalition of academics, activists, and journalists in Texas that aims to educate the public about state-sanctioned violence against Mexicans and Mexican Americans, announced last week that scholars will post episodes on social media several times a week of alleged violence committed by the Rangers.

• Founders of the coalition include MacArthur "Genius" Grant winner Monica Muñoz Martinez and University of Texas American Literature professor John Morán González.
• The social media campaign coincides with what the Rangers consider to be their bicentennial.
• "These posts will show the important role of the Rangers not just in the racial violence of the 1910s but their role over the larger course of Texas in maintaining white supremacy and crushing dissident political movements," the scholars said.
• The scholars will also show how the Texas Rangers actively sought to stop enslaved Black people from escaping bondage through the Underground Railroad to Mexico.

The group's research has led to pushes to erect memorials on sites of atrocities and has been met with resistance from conservative county historical commissions.

State of play: The campaign comes as a relatively new Texas Monthly podcast examines the history of the Rangers, Axios' Asher Price writes.

• Against the backdrop of a national conversation about policing and myth-making, "White Hats" — named for their traditional headwear — explores current questions about how Texans teach their own history.

The Texas Department of Public Safety has not responded to an Axios request for comment.

Keep reading

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said democracy was the biggest winner after Sunday's inauguration — a ceremony outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro skipped for Florida.

The big picture: Lula, 77, made a triumphant return to Brazil's presidency 12 years after leaving office and less than two years after the corruption convictions that sent him to prison were annulled, Axios' Dave Lawler writes.

• Lula would ordinarily have received the presidential sash from his predecessor, but Bolsonaro skipped the ceremony, telling supporters in a tearful farewell on Friday that "we will not throw in the towel. We may have lost the battle but not the war."
• For Lula's supporters, hundreds of thousands of whom were expected to attend the inaugural festivities, Sunday was a day of celebration.

Driving the news: Lula ran more on nostalgia for his previous tenure (2003-2010), when a commodities boom fueled an unprecedented reduction in poverty, than on a detailed platform for this one.

• Lula, who has declared that "Brazil is back" in the fight against climate change, is expected to immediately announce steps to protect the Amazon and shift course on other issues, such as imposing stricter gun controls.
• He told Congress after his inauguration that democracy overcame "the most violent threats to the freedom to vote, and the most abject campaign of lies and hate plotted to manipulate and embarrass the electorate," according to Reuters.

In his farewell on Friday, Bolsonaro did not acknowledge Lula's victory but did condemn an alleged plot by one of his supporters to set off a bomb in the capital city, Brasilia. Bolsonaro then flew to Florida.

• With tensions running high ahead of the transfer of power, Brazil's high court temporarily banned civilians from carrying guns in Brasilia.

Read more

Thousands of fans gathered Monday and Tuesday in Santos, Brazil to honor soccer legend Pelé, who died last week after a battle with colon cancer.

The big picture: Mourners convened at the Vila Belmiro Stadium in Santos, the soccer legend's hometown, and participated in a procession past his coffin, which was placed in the midfield area of the stadium.

• A funeral procession took place today throughout Santos.

Zoom out: Pelé won three FIFA World Cups during his international career — the most of any player.

• Here's a look at mourners paying their final respects to the soccer legend.

1. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro said in interviews this week that he hopes to normalize relations with the U.S. soon, after the opposition voted to end the parallel presidency of Juan Guaidó.

• Washington has recognized Guaidó as the legitimate leader since 2019, but the Venezuelan opposition is now looking for another figurehead to run against Maduro in 2024.

2. The Colombian government and the five largest armed groups, including the National Liberation Army (ELN), have agreed to a ceasefire until at least June.

• A spokesperson for UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the agreement "brings renewed hope for comprehensive peace to the Colombian people."

              Women making Fandango Oaxaqueño sauces. Source: via Noticias Telemundo

A company that started making hot sauces in Mexico as a way to provide jobs in a remote Oaxacan region where many are forced to leave for the U.S. for work is slowly growing hotter, Marina writes.

Details: Founder Alejandrina Bernabé, a food chemist, says El Fandango Oaxaqueño, opened nearly a decade ago, has grown from two employees to over a dozen.

• El Fandango Oaxaqueño makes 1,000 hot sauces in 100 flavors daily.
• Bernabé tells Noticias Telemundo she's now hoping to open a restaurant.