Dec 30, 2022 - Politics & Policy

New election frontiers shake up 2024 map

Illustration of topographical maps of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Wisconsin with stars over them against a striped background

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

The 2024 election will be fought on a very different battlefield than the last one, with old reliably swing states no longer in play — and new ones taking center stage.

Why it matters: It's revealing how fast swing states are changing — a vivid crystallization of America's volatile politics.

What's happening: Gone are the days of obsessing over Ohio and Florida. They're growingly Republican.

  • Gone are the days of Iowa and New Hampshire picking the nominees of both parties. South Carolina is now the place to watch for Dems.
  • Gone are the days of Texas seeming more competitive thanks to its rising Hispanic population. It's as red as ever.

Zoom in: Karl Rove notes in a Wall Street Journal column that Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) was re-elected by 25 points and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis won by 19 points — with the strongest GOP showing in Miami-Dade County in two decades.

  • Both outcomes would have been unthinkable just two elections ago.

Between the lines: Iowa is now off the board for Dems in presidential races. Michigan, once a classic swing state, looks like it's leaning blue.

  • Colorado, eyed by political professionals as a top swing state of the future, now looks like a solid Dem stronghold.

The new battleground map that will determine who wins in 2024 includes two newcomers — Arizona and Georgia — and two traditional swing states — Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The 4 states to watch for 2024:

  1. Wisconsin was the only Biden state where Republicans won a Senate race this year. Rural Wisconsin is now Trump country. But the Milwaukee suburbs are looking more favorable for Democrats.
  2. Georgia was the closest battleground in the 2020 presidential race. Democrats can credit their narrow Senate majority to the unlikely Peach State pair of Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff.
  3. Pennsylvania: Democrats cracked the Keystone State code in this year's midterms by making inroads in working-class areas where they had struggled. But if Republicans nominate stronger candidates in 2024, the GOP will be in contention again.
  4. Arizona: The biggest Sun Belt battleground features lots of ideological activists driving their parties to the left and right — and a critical mass of suburban Phoenix voters who make the difference in consistently close elections. Republicans have a natural advantage — but only if they nominate mainstream candidates.
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