The 2026 midterm election is on track to be the most expensive in history.

Why it matters: So far, the money hasn't always mattered.

• 🍺 Pour one out for your favorite political consultant. Polling has gotten noisier, and money can't compete with momentum.
• In three of the most expensive Democratic primaries, the winner was dramatically outspent on TV and radio, according to Kinetiq Political Insights.
• 💸 "Dollars don't vote — people do," said Adam Wise, a strategic consultant for KPI. "The pattern is hard to miss: The winners didn't outspend anyone, they got more voter for their dollar."

By the numbers: In Michigan, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) and her allies outspent Abdul El-Sayed and his allies nearly 10 to 1 on cable, broadcast and radio — $52 million to $5.2 million. El-Sayed won 48.5%–47.5%.

• In Minnesota, Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) and outside groups backing her put $13.8 million into TV and radio, compared with $3.3 million for Peggy Flanagan. Flanagan won by 20 points.
• In Illinois, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) unleashed $21.8 million in advertising, compared with $12.4 million from Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and a super PAC supporting her. Stratton won 40%–33%.

Go deeper: The same pattern played out in the three most competitive Republican Senate primaries: The losers had the bigger advertising budgets.

• 🤠 In Texas, Sen. John Cornyn and his allies had a $58.8 million advertising operation — seven times the $8.2 million behind Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton won the runoff 64%–36%.
• In Louisiana, Sen. Bill Cassidy and his allies put $13.6 million into advertising, versus $9.5 million from Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) and outside groups backing her. Letlow won the runoff 57%–43%.
• In Georgia, Rep. Buddy Carter had $4.4 million behind him, compared with $925,000 for Rep. Mike Collins and his allies. Collins won the runoff 55%–45%.

Between the lines: President Trump endorsed the winner in all three, showing that in congressional races, his endorsement is still the most valuable currency in the Republican Party.

The other side: Money did prevail in three other Democratic primaries, but in all three it was paired with momentum.

• In Texas, state Rep. James Talarico and affiliated groups put $14.7 million into advertising — five times Rep. Jasmine Crockett's $2.8 million. Talarico won 52%–46%.
• 🦞 In Maine, Graham Platner put $5.4 million into TV and radio, compared with $700,000 from Gov. Janet Mills.

Platner was also the target of $2.8 million in ads from GOP super PACs. Mills dropped out — and Platner later did as well — but both remained on the ballot. Platner beat Mills 78%–17%.

• 🌽 In Iowa, state Rep. Josh Turek and his allies had a $7.2 million advertising advantage, compared with $600,000 for Zach Wahls. Turek won 63%–37%.

🌎 Zoom out: Republican committees ended the second quarter with a cash advantage over their Democratic counterparts, even as many Democratic House candidates have outraised their GOP opponents in individual races. And Elon Musk is waiting in the wings.

• But if the environment is as bad as some GOP strategists privately fear, money won't be able to save all of their candidates.

The bottom line: Candidates can spend a lot of money to lose an election.

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— Hans Nichols

We're zooming in on battleground races ahead of the midterms. This week: Maine.

For 2026, the Maine Senate race has it all: a Democratic establishment-vs.-progressives fight, a nominee swap after explosive allegations, and a rare Republican who dares to buck Trump.

Why it matters: It's hard to see Democrats winning the Senate if they don't take Maine.

• Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) is fighting to remain the only Republican senator representing a blue state in a tough year for the GOP across the board.

🖼️ The big picture: It is a terrible political environment for Republicans, and Maine has not voted for the GOP presidential nominee since 1988.

• 📝 On paper, it should be Democrats' easiest pickup opportunity of the cycle.
• But Collins has defied the odds before. Her longevity, powerful role as Appropriations chair and reputation for breaking with Trump give her a boost.
• 🫟 A messy primary and last-minute nominee swap didn't help Democrats' effort either.

🚗 Driving the news: Collins said yesterday that all ICE agents in Maine are now equipped with body cameras at her insistence.

• Protests have popped up across the state targeting Collins' role in approving funding for ICE.
• The body camera issue is an example of Collins' pitch to Democratic and swing voters: Her clout produces tangible wins for Maine, and she isn't afraid to push back on Trump.

👀 What to watch: Democrats are still trying to move past the Graham Platner roller coaster.

• The new nominee, Troy Jackson, has kept a relatively low profile, though he launched his first general-election ad this week. It comes after months of national coverage of Platner's fall from progressive darling to scandal-ridden outcast.
• Jackson has the backing of progressive kingmaker Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). He came in third in June's Democratic gubernatorial primary and backs Medicare for all, ending funding for Israel's military and abolishing ICE.
• Democrats argue that Collins gets attention for occasionally breaking with Trump, even while overwhelmingly voting with Republicans.

🧮 By the numbers: The RealClearPolitics polling average has Jackson leading Collins by 2.3 points.

• Republicans are quick to point out that Collins faced similar margins at this stage in 2020 — and went on to win.

💵 The money: Roughly $193 million in ad spending and reservations has poured into the race, according to AdImpact estimates.

• The GOP leadership super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, launched the first ad of a $42 million campaign this week, as Semafor reported. Its affiliated nonprofit One Nation is planning to spend an additional $30 million.
• Democrats' Senate Majority PAC has booked $33 million in ads.

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— Stef W. Kight