Where things stand in the Susan Collins-Troy Jackson Maine Senate race
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Sen. Susan Collins in Kittery, Maine, Friday on the first stop on a campaign bus tour. Photo: CJ Gunther / Getty Images
We're zooming in on battleground races ahead of the midterms. This week: Maine.
For 2026, the Maine Senate race has it all: a Democratic establishment-vs.-progressives fight, a nominee swap after explosive allegations, and a rare Republican who dares to buck President Trump.
Why it matters: It's hard to see Democrats winning the Senate if they don't take Maine.
- Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) is fighting to remain the only Republican senator representing a blue state in a tough year for the GOP across the board.
The big picture: It is a terrible political environment for Republicans, and Maine has not voted for the GOP presidential nominee since 1988.
- On paper, it should be Democrats' easiest pickup opportunity of the cycle.
- But Collins has defied the odds before. Her longevity, powerful role as Appropriations chair and reputation for breaking with Trump give her a boost.
- A messy primary and last-minute nominee swap didn't help Democrats' effort either.
Driving the news: Collins said Thursday that all ICE agents in Maine are now equipped with body cameras at her insistence.
- Protests have popped up across the state targeting Collins' role in approving funding for ICE.
- The body camera issue is an example of Collins' pitch to Democratic and swing voters: Her clout produces tangible wins for Maine, and she isn't afraid to push back on Trump.
What to watch: Democrats are still trying to move past the Graham Platner roller coaster.
- The new nominee, Troy Jackson, has kept a relatively low profile, though he launched his first general-election ad this week. It comes after months of national coverage of Platner's fall from progressive darling to scandal-ridden outcast.
- Jackson has the backing of progressive kingmaker Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). He came in third in June's Democratic gubernatorial primary and backs Medicare for all, ending funding for Israel's military and abolishing ICE.
- Democrats argue that Collins gets attention for occasionally breaking with Trump, even while overwhelmingly voting with Republicans.
By the numbers: The RealClearPolitics polling average has Jackson leading Collins by 2.3 points.
- Republicans are quick to point out that Collins faced similar margins at this stage in 2020 — and went on to win.
The money: Roughly $193 million in ad spending and reservations has poured into the race, according to AdImpact estimates.
- The GOP leadership super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, launched the first ad of a $42 million campaign this week, as Semafor reported. Its affiliated nonprofit One Nation is planning to spend an additional $30 million.
- Democrats' Senate Majority PAC has booked $33 million in ads.
