Thune's political group puts down $10 million for Collins
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Screenshot: One Nation ad
A political organization closely affiliated with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is launching a $10 million ad campaign that features a Maine father testifying to Sen. Susan Collins' (R-Maine) effectiveness, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: The GOP establishment wants to burnish Collins' image and improve her numbers while Democrats are locked in a divisive battle on who should challenge her.
- The new buy from One Nation will bring its investment in Maine to $17 million this cycle.
Driving the news: The ad focuses on Collins' support for a federal diabetes program, with the father — Mark Ferguson of Poland, Maine — talking about how the five-term senator helped his family after their son's diagnosis.
- "Thank you, Senator Collins," Ferguson says.
- "Throughout her career, Senator Susan Collins has been Maine's effective and independent voice in Washington, delivering results that help families like Mark Ferguson's," One Nation communications director Chris Gustafson said.
Between the lines: One Nation is the 501(c)(4) arm of the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP establishment's main super PAC.
- The super PAC can run more explicitly political ads and typically goes big with negative spots.
The intrigue: The ad marks the first time One Nation has featured a first-person testimonial from an actual voter, and could signal a stylistic shift for the Thune-aligned organization going forward.
Zoom out: Republicans are starting to process how a difficult national environment could affect them across the country — especially in a state like Maine, where Trump lost by almost 7 points.
- Last month, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) explained to fellow Republicans how "headwinds" on the generic ballot could translate into individual Senate races.
- Even before the U.S. airstrikes against Iran, some Republicans were growing nervous about their chances of holding the Senate in the midterms.
Zoom in: Democrats have been trying to weaken Collins — who is running for her sixth term — since the summer.
- And last month, a group associated with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) launched a $2 million attack on Collins over her votes to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
- But Collins is well-positioned to fight back. She started the year with $8 million in her campaign account and has at least three outside groups or super PACs spending on her behalf.
- In addition to One Nation and the Senate Leadership Fund, a pro-Collins super PAC called Pine Tree Results raised $10 million last year and has barely started spending.
- And Stronger Maine went up with digital ads in October, defending Collins' record on the government shutdown. A related group, Stronger America, has already spent $7 million this cycle, according to AdImpact.
The other side: Graham Platner, an oyster farmer who has captured the imagination of his party's progressive base, keeps racking up Senate endorsements even though Schumer has endorsed his primary opponent. He is up to three sitting senators.
- Platner raised $4.7 million last quarter, while his opponent, Gov. Janet Mills, brought in $2.7 million.
The bottom line: About $200 million was spent in Maine's Senate race the last time Collins was on the ballot.
- This year's spending — especially with a contested Democratic primary — is expected to exceed that total.
