GOP's new fear: Losing the Senate in November
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Top Republicans are increasingly worried about private polling that paints a dire picture of the midterms — and it's not just the House they're afraid of losing, it's also the Senate.
Why it matters: President Trump has warned Republicans that losing their slim House majority could lead to a third impeachment. But a Democratic takeover of the Senate would be a political earthquake — and neuter his last two years in office.
Zoom in: For the first time, GOP strategists are telling Axios that losing the Senate — where Republicans have a 53-47 majority — is a distinct possibility, and that they'll have to fight harder than expected to keep control.
- Operatives say they've reviewed polling that shows the GOP facing competitive Senate races not just in traditional battlegrounds such as Michigan, Maine and North Carolina, but also in conservative states like Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.
- Top GOP strategists acknowledge that immigration and the economy — the two issues that drove Trump's win in 2024 — are now liabilities.
- "A year ago, I would have told you we were almost guaranteed to win the Senate," one GOP operative who's reviewed internal polling told Axios. "Today, I would have to tell you it's far less certain."
The simmering concerns went semi-public this week, when Republican leaders sounded the alarm during a closed meeting with senators.
- Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, delivered a sobering message about the party's headwinds.
- A slide presentation indicated the party's toughest challenge, based on its national polling deficit, is in Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces a tough path to reelection.
Here's what's setting off GOP bells about the Senate:
1. The map's expanding
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is taking a lot of darts from his own party these days. But Republicans privately concede he's done a good job of recruiting Senate candidates in conservative states once seen as out of reach for Democrats.
- Schumer got former Sen. Sherrod Brown to run again in Ohio, and former Rep. Mary Peltola to run in Alaska. Ohio Sen. Jon Husted and Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan are the GOP incumbents.
- Even if Democrats fail to win either race, Republicans now will need to spend potentially tens of millions to defend those seats.
2. The Texas problem
If incumbent Texas Sen. John Cornyn loses the upcoming GOP primary to state Attorney General Ken Paxton, polls suggest it could open the door to a Democrat winning Cornyn's seat in November.
- The NRSC penned a memo this week arguing that Cornyn is "the only Republican candidate" who can "reliably win a general election matchup" against either Democratic state Rep. James Talarico or U.S. Rep Jasmine Crockett (D). (Republicans might get some help — the Democratic primary has gone harshly negative recently.)
- Even if Paxton wins in November, many Republicans warn, the party will have to unexpectedly spend tens of millions of dollars more than if Cornyn is the nominee.
Democrats haven't won a statewide race in Texas in more than three decades. But Republicans aren't dismissing the possibility this year. Last weekend the party suffered a lopsided special election defeat for a state Senate seat.
- Particularly glaring: Trump, who had endorsed the GOP candidate, won the district by 17 points in 2024.
3. The Georgia problem
The GOP's failure to recruit popular Gov. Brian Kemp for a Senate run has been a major setback in the party's efforts to pick off the most vulnerable Senate Democrat up for reelection, Georgia's Jon Ossoff.
- Kemp's decision not to run has left three lesser-known Republicans to fight for the GOP nomination — none with Kemp's fundraising chops.
- Ossoff's has raised far more money than any GOP challenger and has over $25 million on hand. Whoever wins the bruising GOP primary will have to burn through cash before facing him.
Reality check: It's far too early to make dire predictions about how Republicans will fare in 2026 Senate races.
- The primary season has barely begun, and Democrats could nominate weak contenders in states such as Iowa, Maine and Michigan.
- The pro-Senate GOP super PAC has nearly three times as much cash to spend as its Democratic counterpart.
The GOP also will benefit from the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. super PAC, which has a staggering $304 million in cash on hand.
- Then there's megadonor Elon Musk, who's begun cutting big checks to conservative PACs.
- "Sometimes I think the 'Panicans' in our party would be better off spending their money on Depends to help control all their bedwetting," one national GOP strategist told Axios.
