The 2026 midterms spending explosion has begun
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Sen. Susan Collins last month on the Hill. Photo: Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call Inc via Getty Images
A new $2 million ad campaign targeting Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) over ICE funding is one of the Democratic party's biggest investments in the 2026 midterms.
Why it matters: By the end of the cycle, it will seem small. The top Democratic and Republican campaign committees raised over a combined $1 billion last year.
- That money will be concentrated in roughly half-a-dozen Senate races and a House battleground that is historically small.
Driving the news: The $2 million ad campaign targeting Collins, which Axios first reported on Monday, was paid for by a 501(c)(4) that is connected to the Senate Majority PAC, which is affiliated with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).
- Maine, with a population around 1.5 million, is on track to become this cycle's most expensive state per capita, seizing the mantle claimed by Montana in the last cycle.
- The top Republican super PAC has pledged to spend $42 million in Maine and a separate super PAC, Pine Tree Results, has already raised $10 million. There's also a 501(c)(4), Stronger America, that's spent more than $6 million on Collins' behalf, according to AdImpact.
Zoom out: Democratic Senate candidates are mostly outraising their GOP counterparts.
- But for the party committees and super PACs, the roles are reserved.
- Republican groups ended the year with nearly $320 million in cash, nearly twice the $167 Democratic committees reported. according to federal filings.
By the numbers: The Senate Leadership Fund, which is associated with Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) raised $103 million in 2025, with $100 million cash on hand at the beginning of the year.
- Its Democratic counterpart, the Senate Majority PAC. raised over $59 million last year, and ended the year with nearly $36 million in the bank, according to federal filings. It also had $12.4 million in debt.
- The two House super PACs were close to parity. The Congressional Leadership Fund, associated with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), raised $72 million.
- House Majority PAC, the group working to make House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) the speaker, brought in $69.5 million.
It's a similar story with the official campaign arms. The National Republican Congressional Committee raised $117 million and has $50 million on hand.
- The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised $115 million last year and has $49 million in the bank.
- In the Senate, the National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $117 million in 2025 and has $51 to spend this year.
- The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee raked in $80 million and has $22 million on hand.
Between the lines: The disparity is the greatest at the party committee level. The Republican National Committee ended the year with $95 million to spend.
- The Democratic National Committee showed $14 million in the bank, alongside $17.5 million in debt, putting it in the red.
The bottom line: Individual Democratic candidates are posting monster numbers, like Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) who raised nearly $10 million last quarter and ended the year with $25.5 million in the bank.
- But they pale in comparison to the GOP war chests. And that's before factoring in President Trump's super PAC, which raised more than $300 million in 2025.
