Montana voters face shock-and-awe of Senate ads
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Montanans are expected to be the most expensive Senate votes in history this year — and they will likely decide whether Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) remains majority leader.
Why it matters: Democrats are pacing ahead in ad spending in the race, but recent polling has Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) trailing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy.
- There's only so much money campaigns can spend on ads before the airwaves are oversaturated — and Montana is getting there, campaign sources tell Axios.
- Tester needs to be on the ground in Montana, but he's stuck in D.C. for another two work weeks.
- The high-stakes race was moved from "toss up" to "lean Republican" bucket by Cook Political Report on Thursday.
What they're saying: Democratic Senatorial Congressional Committee Chairman Gary Peters (D-Mich.) isn't sweating the polls.
- He argues Montana is a tough state to poll given how rural it is and its population growth. "You can see polls bounce around quite a bit," he told Axios in the Capitol on Tuesday.
- Peters, Schumer and the rest of the party hope Tester's unique political profile in the state will carry him to a victory. "Jon Tester is very good at retail politics," Peters told Axios.
- Tester has been trying to keep his campaign out of national politics and separate himself from President Biden and Vice President Harris. He has even refused to endorse Harris.
By the numbers: The Montana race is expected to be the most expensive Senate race in history on a per vote basis. Ad spending and reservations in proportion to the number of U.S. citizen adults in Montana dwarfs every other Senate race.
- Video ad spending and reservations for the race has already surpassed the record $155 million spent in the 2020 Montana Senate race, according to AdImpact.
- That doesn't even count the tens of millions being spent on other mail, digital and field programs.
- At $390 million, the most ad money overall is being spent or reserved in Ohio's Senate race. But the Ohio race comes in third for ad spending in proportion to the number of people in the state who might vote.
