Axios Generate

December 10, 2024
🤠 It's Tuesday and Ben wants to hear more from readers watching "Landman" — the good, the bad, and the ugly.
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🎸 This week in 1975, Parliament released the funk classic "Mothership Connection," which provides today's intro tune...
1 big thing: Biden complicates Trump's energy push
Here's one thing Donald Trump needs to scrap restrictions on U.S. drilling and exports: plenty of lawyers.
Why it matters: Some of President Biden's policy moves could place time-consuming bureaucratic and legal hurdles before Trump officials who would need to formally unwind them.
🗞️Driving the news: The Interior Department yesterday announced final plans for leasing in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge — a mandate under Trump's 2017 tax law.
- It scheduled a Jan. 9 sale and released a formal "record of decision" on leasing parameters.
- Biden opposes drilling there. The sale offers the minimum acreage legally required (400,000) and has various environmental guardrails.
What they're saying: "The Biden administration continues to impede the development of oil and natural gas resources on federal lands despite clear economic and energy security benefits," American Petroleum Institute spokesman Scott Lauermann said in a statement.
State of play: Environmentalists oppose any ANWR leasing, including Biden's plan, calling it incompatible with protecting the fragile region.
- But Andy Moderow of the Alaska Wilderness League also noted polar bear and caribou restrictions, among others, in Interior's ROD — and said Trump can't just discard the decision.
- "[T]he department can't simply change direction and ignore such findings in the ROD on a political whim," he noted via email, vowing the group will "scrutinize any and all attempts they make to cut corners to expedite drilling."
Meanwhile, the looming DOE study on LNG could make it tougher for Trump's team to quickly start granting export licenses again.
- Trump and Republicans want to scrap the study and offer new permits — but that may bring legal risk if it contradicts the study's findings, Axios Pro's Daniel Moore wrote recently.
- Wood Mackenzie's Ed Crooks makes a similar point in a new column.
- The study could delay Trump's intent to approve pending applications by "anywhere from several months to several calendar quarters to revise or revisit study results," ClearView Energy Partners said in a note.
Reality check: Turning back to ANWR, the government can't force companies to drill, despite what could be massive deposits.
- A 2021 sale just before Trump's term ended drew tepid interest amid policy uncertainty, opportunities elsewhere, and environmental pressure on companies.
- No development followed — Biden ordered a review and suspended activities.
- Companies gave up two leases and Interior canceled nine others.
But Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy argues future leasing under Trump "would face a different reception — with the prospect of support from Washington providing tailwinds for would-be developers," Bloomberg summarizes.
The bottom line: ANWR and LNG highlight a bigger picture.
- Executive orders ending Biden's policies will quickly flow, but for some, there could be a long goodbye.
2. 🧁 Bonus policy notes: Congress and chilling out
👋 GOP Rep. Brett Guthrie of Kentucky will be the chairman of the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee.
- Why it matters: He's talked about using the gavel to eliminate "EV mandates," preserve existing fossil fuel and nuclear generation and scale back the IRA.
🧊 The Energy Department offered a $306 million conditional loan guarantee to Nostromo Energy to install up to 193 cold thermal energy storage systems in commercial buildings in California.
- Why it matters: The technology can provide cooling without putting more strain on power grids, the firm and DOE say. MIT Technology Review has more.
- What we're watching: Whether the deal is completed by Jan. 20.
3. Southern California faces "extremely critical" fire threat
A rare "particularly dangerous situation" red flag warning is in effect for much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties through this afternoon local time due to powerful Santa Ana winds.
Threat level: A significant, fast-moving wildfire known as the Franklin Fire was spreading early today to cover at least 1,800 acres after igniting near Pepperdine University overnight, triggering evacuations for thousands of people in Malibu.
- This is an unusually intense Santa Ana wind event, and winds could gust to 80 mph or greater in some spots, particularly in and around hilly terrain.
- The NWS forecast office in Los Angeles highlighted the risk of "extreme & life-threatening wildfire behavior."
- "This event has the potential to be as strong as the November 5th-6th Santa Ana event that led to the Mountain Fire," the NWS stated, referencing the fire that burned nearly 20,000 acres and damaged or destroyed more than 400 structures near Camarillo, Calif.
Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas and Electric warned tens of thousands of customers about coming public safety electricity shutoffs in advance of the high winds.
Context: Similar weather patterns have historically been associated with fast-spreading and deadly fires in the "wildland urban interface," where homes border areas with dry vegetation and hilly terrain.
- Climate change is a key factor leading to an increase in days with extreme fire weather conditions in the Southwest.
- Although atmospheric river events have hit central and northern California, Southern California has been largely dry so far this season.
4. 💻 On my screen: rise of the pragmatists
A buzzy (in climate-world) NYT column says activists' strategic MO should lean into "technological innovation and industrial strategy" — the gist of the 2021 infrastructure law and the IRA.
Why it matters: Arnab Datta counsels against "revert[ing] to the old playbook of regulations, lawsuits and industry vilification" when Trump takes office again.
The intrigue: What's in? Permitting compromise to cut red tape; being OK with "stable" near-term oil and gas production; and expanding the coalition — even with oil companies in areas like geothermal and CO2 capture.
- What's out for Datta? Purity tests, and trying to thwart leases and exports, which risks economic backlash.
- The Biden-era bills, he writes, show that "pragmatism produces better results than dogmatism."
Quick take: It's a spiritual cousin to this piece in Jacobin a few months back that criticized the climate movement's obsession with disinformation.
The bottom line: Datta admits his approach might seem "overly accommodating" to polluters, but adds:
- "The path to lasting climate progress lies not in oil and gas antagonism, but in transforming our opponents into stakeholders in a clean energy future."
5. ⛽ Average gas prices are back under $3 per gallon


Gasoline prices haven't been this low since spring 2021.
Why it matters: Prices at the pump — displayed prominently on big signs everywhere you drive — are a key economic indicator for the general public.
- The recent lows are a big sign that inflation is increasingly in our rear-view mirror.
State of play: The average gallon of gas cost $2.98 yesterday and has been under $3 since Saturday, according to GasBuddy data.
Between the lines: The good news comes too late for the Biden administration, which suffered politically when inflation and the war in Ukraine drove prices above $5 a gallon in 2022.
- Instead, low prices are more likely to benefit President-elect Trump, who campaigned on bringing them down.
Stunning stat: The average American worker now needs to put in just 5.44 minutes of work to buy an average gallon of gas, GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan writes.
- Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, that's the fewest since 2015.
What's next: Gas prices typically drop in autumn and winter as Americans drive less in cooler weather, reducing demand.
6. One fun thing: NASA chief rides in hybrid-electric plane
NASA Administrator Bill Nelson became the first U.S. agency head to fly in an "Advanced Air Mobility aircraft" on Sunday, according to Electra Aviation.
Why it matters: Aircraft such as the hybrid-electric Electra EL2 Goldfinch prototype, which Nelson rode in, may play an increasingly important role for future military, air taxi and other uses. NASA is among Electra's customers.
- The aircraft has the advantage of being able to take off and land in the length of a soccer field, and it's being designed to carry up to nine passengers.
Zoom in: The flight from Manassas Regional Airport in Virginia took Nelson and Electra's test pilot on a series of ultra-short takeoffs and landings.
7. 💬 Quote of the day: auto inflection edition
"Before the pandemic, the rules were set down by the Western carmakers. Now it's the opposite."— JATO Dynamics analyst Felipe Munoz, quoted in the NYT about Chinese EV makers' growing reach
🙏 Thanks to Chris Speckhard and Chuck McCutcheon for edits to today's edition, along with the brilliant Axios Visuals team.
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