Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios
House Energy and Commerce may open up to a new leader next Congress, but many of the chamber's energy and climate panels will remain stable.
Why it matters: Control of the committees is key to advancing — or rolling back — incentives for energy deployment, permitting legislation and minerals policy in the next session.
Energy and Commerce
Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers' retirement has created a two-way or potentially three-way Republican race, while the likely Democratic chair has led his party on the committee for nearly a decade.
If Democrats win:
- Frank Pallone, the current ranking member, is likely to again lead the committee.
- Pallone, a fierce defender of E&C's broad jurisdiction, was a top player in the IRA, infrastructure law and CHIPS Act.
- He has launched an investigation into alleged oil industry price collusion. We'd expect him to continue scrutinizing the industry.
If Republicans hold:
Of the GOP candidates, Bob Latta has the deepest energy background.
- He would focus on lowering barriers to supply the grid with more power — including permitting changes to help transmission lines, he told Daniel.
- Latta, echoing Speaker Mike Johnson, said he'd approach any IRA rollbacks "with a scalpel."
- "The authority of the committee is to look at these things and see what does work, what hasn't worked, and go from there," Latta said.
Brett Guthrie has more of a history on health issues, but he comes from a coal state and a district with a large new EV battery plant.
- The Kentucky Republican laid out an agenda in line with the GOP's main energy talking points.
- That includes eliminating "EV mandates," preserving existing fossil fuel and nuclear generation, and rolling back pieces of the IRA, per a spokesperson.
- He stopped short of a hard repeal of the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund, saying he would "maintain oversight" of the "Green New Deal Slush fund."
Richard Hudson is another name in the mix. Though he hasn't declared his candidacy, he's seen as a favorite if he runs because Republicans may be inclined to reward him if he helps them keep the majority as NRCC chair.
- Hudson's office didn't respond to a request for comment on his plans.
- As chair, his energy views might be similar to Greg Walden, the moderate Republican who led the panel from 2017 to 2019, said a source from an energy advocacy group, granted anonymity to speak candidly.
- Hudson has ties to conservative climate world, having hired former ClearPath lobbyist Jeff Morehouse last year for a top role in his office.
Natural Resources
Top Democrat Raúl Grijalva's health is among the biggest question marks for this committee.
If Democrats win:
- Grijalva will seek the chair (or ranking membership) next Congress, per a spokesperson. He has been absent from the Capitol for much of the last year as he undergoes treatment for lung cancer.
- Grijalva would hold "Big Oil and other polluters accountable" and push progressive legislation like the EJ For All Act, the spokesperson said.
- Jared Huffman has long positioned himself as next in line for the Democratic gavel after Grijalva.
If Republicans hold:
- Bruce Westerman is expected to keep the chair. He'd likely keep trying overhauling the National Environmental Policy Act — regardless of what happens with permitting in the lame duck.
- A GOP sweep would also give Westerman a real shot at long-sought changes to the Endangered Species Act.
Agriculture
The parties remain split on how to reach a deal on another five-year farm bill, with IRA dollars hanging in the balance.
If Democrats win:
- David Scott will likely see the gavel in a Democratic majority.
- Scott and other Democrats want to move the IRA conservation funding into the farm bill and strongly oppose cuts to food-assistance programs.
If Republicans hold:
- Glenn Thompson is expected to remain chair, a GOP committee spokesman said.
- Republicans want to break down "guardrails" on climate-smart ag programs to expand funding beyond projects that just reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Appropriations' Energy and Water Development Subcommittee
There's frequently shuffling around the Appropriations Committee, but DOE's top House appropriators will likely remain the same.
If Democrats win:
- Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in House history, is in another tough race, but she's a political survivor who likely will still be around if Dems control the House.
- She's a champion of the Great Lakes and DOE's research efforts and has advocated supplying LNG to Ukraine and other European countries amid the LNG permits pause.
If Republicans hold:
- Chuck Fleischmann, whose district is home to Oak Ridge National Laboratory, is a strong advocate nuclear power and the national labs.
- Here's a bit of IRA repeal, Fleischmann-style: His spending bill this year proposes to scale back the Loan Programs Office in order to fund advanced nuclear demo projects.
