The Supreme Court may indirectly impose fresh limits on how federal regulators can address climate change without explicit congressional blessing, Ben writes.

Driving the news: The court said Monday it will hear litigation about "Chevron deference" — the longstanding doctrine that agencies deserve leeway in writing regulations when statutes are either vague or silent on a topic.

Why it matters: The case is about commercial fishing regulations but has broader implications.

• It follows a 2022 ruling by the conservative-led court that already imposed new curbs on executive running room.

Catch up fast: Last summer, the high court ruled 6-3 that a sweeping (albeit defunct) Obama-era power plant rule violated the "major questions" doctrine.

• That's the idea that big, consequential regulations require clear authorization by Congress.

The big picture: Curtailing "Chevron" could be a one-two punch with last year's ruling, said Michael Burger, executive director of Columbia University's Sabin Center for Climate Change Law.

• "It's possible that the court majority could come away from this case with a further ratcheting down of the discretion that has long been afforded to agencies to pursue their missions, and write regulations that achieve broad societal goals," Burger told Axios.

The other side: "The [Chevron] doctrine has been abused and manipulated to allow federal agencies to run amuck [sic]," said the office of West Virginia attorney general Patrick Morrisey. Alongside other conservative AGs, Morrisey urged the high court to hear the case.

• "Agencies shouldn’t be permitted to take advantage of statutory silence to extend their powers beyond what Congress intended," Morrisey said.

Of note: A 2007 Supreme Court ruling gave the Environmental Protection Agency power to regulate heat-trapping emissions, yet how far the agency can go remains disputed.

• And President Biden's "whole of government" approach to climate extends beyond EPA to financial agencies and more.

The intrigue: The new climate law, authored by Democrats, included language affirming EPA's Clean Air Act power to regulate heat-trapping emissions.

• But the reach of those provisions — let alone other agencies' powers and steps under other laws — remains uncertain.
• Some specific areas to watch include the EPA's next swing at power plant carbon standards; vehicle emissions rules; and SEC corporate climate disclosure mandates.

The bottom line: The next high court term could be big.

A looming El Niño — an ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that shifts temperatures and changes rainfall patterns — could lead to declines in U.S. agricultural production, Axios' Ayurella Horn-Muller reports.

Why it matters: Any production decrease could further spike food costs and exacerbate the state of food insecurity across the country.

The latest: Forecasts suggest the coming El Niño is likely to start between this summer and fall, layering onto effects from human-caused climate change that will effectively usher in sweeping changes to weather patterns.

• Typically, the naturally occurring climate cycle results in a wetter, cooler southeastern U.S., while regions like the Central Plains could be drier and possibly warmer, according to Virginia Tech professor Zachary Easton.

What they’re saying: Agricultural economist Jennifer Ifft tells Axios that if an El Niño ends up intensifying the prolonged drought in the Central and Southern Plains, the results would be "economically devastating."

• It could bring higher grocery prices nationwide for goods such as wheat, corn, soybean and sorghum; and perhaps even costlier meat too, Ifft says.

Our thought bubble, per Axios' Andrew Freedman: El Niño events tend to leave much of the Plains warmer than average during the winter when its influence on North American weather peaks.

• While an El Niño is predicted, there is no guarantee it will develop.

Read the whole story

💰BP hauled in a $5 billion Q1 profit and the earnings report beat expectations, but its stock price tumbled as it slowed share buybacks, Ben writes.

• The intrigue: The January-March haul was actually higher than Q4 despite lower commodity prices. BP cited "exceptional results" in its trading division.

• Zoom in: The British multinational giant said it would reward investors with $1.75B in share buybacks this quarter, down from $2.75B the prior period. Bloomberg has more.

👀 Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) this morning floated plans to speed permitting for fossil fuel and low-carbon projects alike, the latest stab at an elusive deal. Full bill ... The Hill's coverage.

💬 Germany is urging governments worldwide to set an "ambitious target for renewable energy that would “ring in the end of the fossil fuel age," AP reports from a meeting of climate diplomats in Berlin.

• Why it matters: Andrew notes the Petersberg Climate Dialogue is the kickoff of diplomacy ahead of the big UN climate summit late this year — called COP28 — as early clues of country positions emerge.
• Yes, but: Sultan al-Jaber, the United Arab Emirates official presiding over this year's UN summit, was cool to the idea, focusing instead on reducing fossil fuel emissions, AP reports.

A youth climate group that helped propel a viral social media campaign against the Willow oil project in Alaska is launching advertisements on streaming services this week, criticizing the Biden administration for approving it.

Why it matters: The ad signals the backlash, particularly among young voters, against the project's green-lighting in March, Andrew writes.

Zoom in: The ad from Gen-Z for Change, released this morning on Tik Tok, shows President Biden during his 2020 presidential campaign. At the time, he vowed he would not approve more oil drilling on federal lands if elected.

• The 30-second spot ends with a young person speaking to the camera: “President Biden, you promised us a livable future and then you took that future away.”
• The ads are part of a five-figure purchase on YouTube, Hulu, Roku TV, DirectTV and Sling.

Between the lines: This pushback on Willow demonstrates a potential weakness for Biden going into the 2024 campaign.

• The administration has major climate policy accomplishments to tout, such as the Democrats’ climate bill and a huge influx of funding for renewable energy technologies.
• Still, young people want to see the White House fight harder on the issue.

What they’re saying: “If the Administration wants the support of our generation, they need to meet their own promises: reject new fossil fuel projects, create a specific plan to phase out existing ones, and invest in a just transition for workers in the industry,” Elise Joshi, acting executive director of Gen-Z for Change, told Axios via email.

Recent personnel moves by a key advocacy group for low-carbon power companies highlights the industry's evolution in an expanding market and new policy landscape, Ben writes.

Driving the news: The American Clean Power Association announced Monday it has tapped Sarah Beerbower as vice president of member relations.

• She took the gig after nearly five years as a top corporate relations exec with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Catch up fast: Her arrival from the K Street powerhouse makes Beerbower one of several new faces with, or working on behalf of, the ACP.

• A few months ago, it hired veteran policy insider Jason Grumet as CEO.
• Grumet moved from the Bipartisan Policy Center he founded in 2007.
• ACP's also working with former GOP and Joe Manchin aides on climate law implementation via the lobbying firm Cornerstone Government Affairs.

Quick take: The sector is moving into a new phase of using incentives in the huge climate law — and protecting them politically.

• ACP is also aligned with longstanding K Street players like the Business Roundtable, Chamber, and oil and mining groups pushing for legislation to accelerate permitting.
• Meanwhile, House Republicans are pushing to scuttle a suite of climate law provisions in the debt ceiling fight.