If you ask energy historian Daniel Yergin, the Iran war "has been brewing for 47 years."

The big picture: Surging oil and gas prices tied to Middle East tensions will hang over a Houston gathering next week that is one of the global energy industry's biggest annual events.

• Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, has been the face of the CERAWeek conference throughout its entire run of more than four decades.
• CERAWeek attracts more than 10,000 attendees from nearly half the world's countries.

The intrigue: "Rising oil prices had become the object of constant attention by presidents and prime ministers, as well as fodder of front pages for months," Yergin wrote.

• That could pass for commentary on today's war with Iran. But it's from "The Prize," his 1991 Pulitzer-winning history of oil — page 703.

"The continuity is amazing going back to the 1970s, which is what really shaped my own career and what I focus on," Yergin said in an interview earlier this week.

Flashback: Yergin traces the roots of today's tensions back to 1979.

• Strikes by Iranian oil workers helped topple the Shah — Iran's U.S.-backed monarch — and disrupted global supply, reshaping the geopolitics of energy for decades to come.

Friction point: The turmoil in "The Prize" lasted for months, and we're not there in the Iran war — yet.

• "It's not the nightmare scenario," Yergin said in our interview about today's conflict.
• What is the nightmare scenario? "This persists for more than weeks," Yergin replied.

Driving the news: It's not hyperbole to say the trajectory of the war could be altered by conversations — both on stage and behind closed doors — that happen in Houston next week.

• Numerous main-stage interviews — many hosted by Yergin — could jolt oil markets and headlines.
• These include Energy Secretary Chris Wright; United Arab Emirates Minister Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who's also CEO of the country's state-backed oil company; and former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.

Zoom in: Beyond the war, the biggest topic driving debate is likely to be AI — both the electricity it demands and the potential it can have.

• A technology-focused section of the conference — known as the Agora — has a hub of live programming focused just on AI for the first time this year.

What we're watching: By the time the Houston gathering concludes on March 27, it will have been four weeks — or one full month — since Trump launched the strikes.

The bottom line: That's the moment when time becomes measured in months, not just weeks — and when Yergin's "nightmare scenario" could emerge.

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Claros, a startup with tech that minimizes energy waste at data centers, closed a $30 million seed round co-led by General Catalyst and Red Cell Partners.

• New and existing investors including Systemiq Capital, Aero X Ventures, and Trenches Capital took part.

Why it matters: The AI industry is desperate for every electron it can get, and regulators are scrambling to prevent the data center boom from straining grids.

• Those forces together make cutting energy loss a big deal.

Driving the news: Claros plans to commercialize advanced voltage regulators that provide power directly to servers' main processors.

• Their model cuts "heat conversion loss" and allows operators to boost efficiency by controlling voltage.

State of play: The company that emerged from stealth a year ago has now fabricated three of these "integrated voltage regulators" (IVRs), working with manufacturers including Samsung.

• A fourth model based on an unnamed customer's requirements is currently being designed.

Claros' other planned product is a modular data center that can run purely on direct current power, rather than multiple AC-to-DC conversions that waste energy.

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💵 Oil prices soared overnight as traders absorbed Iran's widening attacks on regional energy sites, which followed Israeli strikes on a major Iranian gas field.

• Why it matters: "The breadth of what is at risk here in fuels, chemicals, LNG and fertilizer inputs is what makes this moment qualitatively different from previous episodes of Gulf tension," Rystad Energy said in a note.
• The big picture: Tehran's strikes targeted infrastructure across the Persian Gulf — including what Penn Washington global policy program director Daniel Schneiderman tells Axios is "the Qatari crown jewel," Ras Laffan Industrial City, the "world's largest LNG export" facility. Tehran also struck energy facilities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
• What we're watching: The potential for the conflict to extend well into the spring. Go deeper.

🎙️ President Trump said late yesterday that Israel will not conduct further attacks on Iran's main natural gas facility.

• Why it matters: Trump's comments — seemingly an effort to de-escalate the situation — came hours after he green-lit the Israeli strike that marked a significant escalation. Full story.

👀 Vice President JD Vance and DOE head Chris Wright will huddle with oil execs today at an American Petroleum Institute board meeting, the group said.

• What we're watching: "Vance said Wednesday that the White House will announce additional measures in the next 24 to 48 hours to address rising fuel prices," CNBC reports.

🇻🇪 The Treasury Department eased sanctions to enable more U.S. companies to work with Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA. Full document.

⚓ Trump's Jones Act waivers "will certainly impact how crude and products flow, but the influence on prices might not be enough to notice through the significant noise of overall market swings," RBN Energy's Lisa Shidler writes in a detailed explainer.

♨️ Geothermal player Fervo this morning announced $421 million in debt finance for its Cape Station project in Utah that's slated to start providing grid power this year.

• Why it matters: The non-recourse debt — that is, it's attached to the project itself — underscores enhanced geothermal's "bankability as a utility-scale infrastructure asset," Fervo said.

⚛️ Power heavyweight Talen Energy will explore deploying SMR startup X-energy's reactors in Pennsylvania and across the massive PJM grid.

• What's next: "[E]arly-stage project development activities, including feasibility studies, site evaluations, and a project execution framework," the companies said.

As business groups mount a full-court press to get Congress to overhaul permitting, one of them is brandishing a new stat: The cost of permitting to manufacturers is at least $7.9 billion a year.

Why it matters: The National Association of Manufacturers is trying everything it can to try to nudge along stop-and-start permitting talks.

Driving the news: NAM and the Foundation for American Innovation think tank surveyed businesses to learn about the financial burden posed by obtaining federal project approvals.

• The $7.9 billion figure was derived from analyzing publicly available permitting data along with survey responses, the groups said in a new report.
• More than half of those surveyed said permitting concerns discourage investment.

Threat level: "As the survey results demonstrate, this significant resource diversion harms manufacturing investment and can hinder companies' ability to open facilities, launch projects, and create jobs across the country," the report said.

What we're watching: The fate of permitting now that two key Senate Democrats have agreed to take part again in negotiations.

A group of House Democrats is launching a push to develop detailed policy plans for the party on affordable and reliable energy.

Why it matters: It's the latest attempt to translate the party's affordability push into legislation — something they hope can prove useful if they win majorities in Congress this fall.

Driving the news: The new Thriving Economy Project is being led by the nonprofit Sustainable Energy and Environment Coalition Institute.

• "We're focused on identifying what's already working in communities across the country and turning those lessons into policy," Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), the project's chair, said in a statement.

State of play: The initiative plans to examine nine areas relating to affordability based on discussions with farmers, manufacturers, unions and others.

• Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) will lead the effort on "cheap, abundant, and clean American energy for all," while Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) will helm an initiative dealing with "accessible, low-cost finance for a clean energy future."

What we're watching: The project aims to release a report in September.

"The reverberations of this war will be felt for the next 5+ years, shifting the calculus of supply/demand, global sources of oil/gas supply, global transport routes and the definition of 'strategic.'"