Axios Future of Defense

January 29, 2025
To quote Ron Burgundy ... You stay classy, San Diego.
- I'm at WEST through Thursday. What should I peep on the show floor? Full coverage coming next week.
🖊️ Situational awareness: President Trump signed an executive order for the construction of the "Iron Dome for America." It's a campaign throwback.
- My thought bubble: Whoever wrote the EO knows a good bit about overhead defense. It's a confusing name for the project, though, considering the size of Israel and the reach of its own Iron Dome.
Coming right up: The Trump vibe, a Zumwalt retrofit and muddin' in Germany.
Today's newsletter is 1,415 words, a 5-minute read.
1 big thing: Attention, please!
What do defense contractors, tech companies, investors and LinkedIn try-hards all have in common? They know President Trump is going to shock the Pentagon, and they are trying to get their foot in the door.
Why it matters: There's a post-inauguration wave to ride. It's now American maximalism — build, baby, build! — and the returning commander in chief is the spark plug.
Driving the news: Big, public plays for attention and influence are unfolding as Trump 2.0 coalesces.
- General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc. CEO Linden Blue in a letter to the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency offered advice on fixing defense acquisition. "Past reform efforts, often supervised by the very organizations most in need of reform," he wrote, "have failed."
- L3Harris Technologies CEO Chris Kubasik also wrote to DOGE with policy recommendations, including jumpstarting the "Arsenal of Democracy 2.0" and tweaking how lucrative contracts are protested.
- Joe Lonsdale, the cofounder of Palantir Technologies and managing partner at 8VC, in a blog post argued the "woke tech giants of the last decade have given way to a new crop of patriotic leaders and innovators." He added: "With a few bold moves, President Trump's promised Golden Age and a second century of American dominance are within reach."
- Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang placed a full-page, back-cover ad in the Washington Post calling on Trump to "win the AI War." (This feels especially prescient in the wake of DeepSeek's breakthrough.)
With the new administration comes "an incredible amount of excitement" as it "pertains to ensuring U.S. leadership in AI and other technologies," Wang told me after the ad ran.
- "There's an incredible amount of receptivity — listening to all of us about what the best path forward is and what's the best way to ensure that America and the U.S. stay ahead."
What we're watching: Goodwill's a precious resource these next four years, amid military shakeups (already happening) and an atmosphere one executive pitched to me as "who knows what's next."
- Trump took keen interest in certain projects last time around and relishes the deal-making persona. Why would this term be any different?
- To quote Breaking Defense's Valerie Insinna: "If I were a gambler, my money would be on Trump interference on big-name aerospace projects," among other endeavors.
The bottom line: The "coming months and years are ripe with opportunity across industry," Lauren Bedula, a managing director at Beacon Global Strategies, told me.
- "Change is common in transitions, businesses should not panic but should instead double down on delivering exceptional support to" the U.S. government.
Keep scrolling for more vibe checks ...
2. Hegseth's heading
For a man who's courted so much controversy, whose first name became a conservative chorus on X and whose nomination prompted questions of "Who?!" at happy hours, Pete Hegseth's public views on China, Russia and defense tech are pretty ... standard.
The big picture: President Trump is disruptor in chief. His picks for key posts are unorthodox; his flurry of fiats, some targeting U.S. troops, are catching backlash.
- But Hegseth — a combat veteran, former Fox News personality and now defense secretary — toes the line on the "pacing challenge," the "acute threat" and other governmentese.
Here's what written testimony, submitted to Congress ahead of the historic 51-50 vote, reveals about his geopolitics and weapons thinking.
🇨🇳 China: The potential seizure of Taiwan, a "fait accompli," should motivate U.S. military modernization. Guam is a linchpin for Indo-Pacific success. Collaborating with Japan will pay deterrence dividends.
🇷🇺 Russia: Despite sanctions and other constraints, its war machine still packs a punch. Moscow's digital subterfuge and Arctic ambitions "are particularly acute." The invasion of Ukraine is "settling into a war of attrition."
🇮🇷 Iran: The regime, which props up violent proxies, creeps closer to nuclear weapons. Its missile and drone arsenal demands countermeasures. The U.S. should help Israel defend itself.
🇰🇵 North Korea: An "intense focus" on missile development, hacking gains and nuclear arms is concerning. Its "space capabilities" must be monitored. Missile defense needs beefing up closer to home.
☢️ Nukes: A triad is a necessity. Full stop. And full steam ahead on the Sentinel nuclear missile, B-21 Raider and the Columbia-class submarine. Partnering with the National Nuclear Security Administration is of highest priority. NNSA labs, plants and sites want for dramatic renovations.
🤑 Doing business: The Pentagon is thinking too narrowly; it should look beyond Cold War suppliers. Places like the Office of Strategic Capital and Defense Innovation Unit are oases. Delayed, over-budget projects require a "thorough review."
🪖 Army upgrades: Wars abroad underline the value of cyber, autonomy and precision fires.
✈️ Next Generation Air Dominance: A careful review will come. (Punt.)
🚢 Shipbuilding: The U.S. must up its game. Navy leadership should develop a "shipbuilding road map to increase our capacity" and remove supply chain chokepoints.
Yes, but: His takes on women's role in combat, ousting "woke" generals and takedown of diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives have been cast inside and outside Congress as far more radical.
- One of Hegseth's first posts on X as defense secretary included a photo with a handwritten note: "DOD =/= DEI."
What's next: Hegseth promised to delegate day-to-day matters to his yet-to-be-confirmed deputy. Trump picked billionaire investor Stephen Feinberg for that post.
- Meantime, the potential Army, Navy and Air Force secretaries (Dan Driscoll, John Phelan and Troy Meink) await their hearings and votes.
Go deeper: Trump's Pentagon pick wants to "Make America Lethal Again"
3. The Zumwalt road map
The USS Zumwalt, long a punching bag, will shape "an evolving hypersonic weapons road map" inside the U.S. Navy, according to Rear Adm. Bill Daly, the director of surface warfare.
The big picture: The stealthy destroyer splashed back into the water after a retrofit that gave it four missile tubes to hold the Conventional Prompt Strike weapon.
- Photos shared by the Navy and widely reported on show progress throughout 2024, including the gutting of the warship.
What they're saying: "The DDG-1000 class is a highly capable platform today and a vehicle for speeding hypersonic capability to the fleet," Daly said at the Surface Navy Association conference this month.
Context: Hypersonic advances made by China and Russia are pressuring American offenses, defenses and timelines.
- Such weapons are nimble and travel miles in seconds, complicating interception.
- President Trump's decree for an American Iron Dome mentioned "hypersonic" at least four times.
The bottom line: "I think the speed in modifying Zumwalt to carry CPS is impressive," the Hudson Institute's Bryan Clark told me, "and could turn the program from being an acquisition embarrassment to an innovation success."
4. Quick hits
🌊 Rolls-Royce scored an eight-year, $11.1 billion contract with the U.K. Defense Ministry to design, manufacture and maintain submarine reactors.
- Why it matters: The deal will be a boon to business and national security, John Healey, the U.K. defense secretary, said in a statement. It's expected to sustain 4,000 jobs and create 1,000 more.
- 💭 My thought bubble: This is a win for AUKUS, too, at a time when shipbuilding capacity and workforce is very much in question.
🔥 Firestorm Labs inked a $100 million contract with the U.S. Air Force, which is interested in its Tempest drone and additive manufacturing methods. The arrangement runs five years.
- Why it matters: "It's an inflection point for the business," CEO Dan Magy told me. "Now it's time for us to build."
- 💭 My thought bubble: 3D printing deserves wider military adoption. The 101st Airborne Division has done cool stuff with it.
🤿 The U.S. Army wants industry input on the Integrated Visual Augmentation System Next. It issued a request for information Jan. 22.
- Why it matters: "We see the new RFI as the U.S. Army recognizing the need to bring additional expertise to the existing IVAS program," Kopin CEO Michael Murray told me. Kopin is in the microdisplay business.
- 💭 My thought bubble: There's blood in the water. Competition's circling.
5. Check this out
The Next Generation Tactical Vehicle-Hybrid was tested during the Combined Resolve exercise in Germany this month.
Why it matters: The GM Defense-made NGTV-H is diesel-electric, offering troops silent drive, silent watch and a low thermal signature.
- "This thing is completely silent. You wouldn't know — I've also tested it just creeping up on people, behind them," Staff Sgt. Nicholas Chavez with the 10th Mountain Division said in a video shared by the U.S. Army.
- "It's that stealthy."
Zoom in: The NGTV-H is based on the Chevy Silverado. It's offered in two-, four- and six-seat setups.
Context: GM Defense unveiled the truck at the 2024 Association of the U.S. Army.
Shoutout to Nicholas Johnston for editing and Matt Piper for copy editing.
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