Trump 2.0 will shake up the Pentagon, but how he sharpens or dulls its technological evolution — wielding his radical vibes as a scalpel or hammer, and leaning on disruptive-tech friends — is a work in progress.

To start figuring it out, let's consider these clues:

🚨 Pete Hegseth. Trump's Tuesday night surprise. Hegseth is a TV personality, author and decorated Army veteran. A wildly unconventional pick!

• "Nobody fights harder for the Troops, and Pete will be a courageous and patriotic champion of our 'Peace through Strength' policy," Trump said in a statement.
• The announcement scrambled reporters and defense experts alike at a happy hour I was attending. "Who's Pete?"
• This plays into Trump's love of television and ratings. A Fox News spokesperson said Hegseth's "insights and analysis especially about the military resonated deeply with" viewers.

Project 2025. The rightwing playbook damns the Defense Department for wasting time and money. It advocates striking outdated and underperforming projects and recognizes the extreme consequences of cyber, space and nukes.

• It also puts on a pedestal small businesses and their knack for innovation. It rings of a wholly American industrial base, not a cloistered defense industrial base.

The West Coast weapons bros. Working in national security is cool again, even in Silicon Valley and its bankrolling circles.

• Palmer Luckey, the founder of Anduril Industries, told me Trump "has acted as a change agent by rallying people who understand that we don't have time for business as usual." That includes "wanting more capability for fewer dollars."

Elon Musk. The de facto tech adviser has a direct line to the Oval Office. Last week, he sat in on calls with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

• Starlink fuels Russia-Ukraine guerrilla connectivity. Meantime, the raucous billionaire shared a video on X blaming the U.S. and NATO for Moscow's invasion.

What they're saying: "I think we're at this really strange inflection point that comes along every couple generations," Chris Miller, a former acting defense secretary involved in Project 2025, told me.

• "We are in a position now, with a new administration, to accelerate transformation, how we think about national security and how we think about the defense industrial base that has to be rebuilt."

Zoom out: The defense sector is among the most powerful — and persuasive — in politics.

• Megaprojects span states, voting blocs and workforces. Defense dollars keep communities afloat. And an armed-to-the-teeth military is Republican red meat.

My thought bubble: Don't get too distracted by the big names above. What greatly matter are the project approvers (or deniers), the contract signers (or nullifiers) and the subject-matter experts embedded at program executive offices.

• There's a reason why so much ink has been spilled about the "frozen middle." It's not all about secretaries and honor cordons.

Keep scrolling for more on "personnel as policy" ...

Here are the people, positions and posturing that caught my eye:

• Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) as national security adviser. He's a former Green Beret with experience in the Middle East and Africa.
• My thought bubble: Those two extremism hot spots frustrate the Pentagon today. They could spell bigger trouble tomorrow, rattling America's much-discussed "pivot to the Pacific."
• Sen. Marco Rubio, another Florida Republican, getting the nod for secretary of state.
• My thought bubble: A China-and-Iran hawk with intelligence experience and AI takes as top diplomat? It's an interesting brew.

What they're saying: "As we head into 2025, a lot will depend on whether he fills key positions with disruptors or mainstream appointees," Jason Kaufman, a managing director at investment bank Lincoln International, told me.

• "We expect a focus on containing cost overruns on the big programs, procurement reform, and innovation in emerging domains like cyber, space and undersea warfare."

The bottom line: Expect loyalists to win out.

• Many first-term players were either experts or true MAGA believers — but rarely both, Axios' Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei write.

Go deeper: Pre-administration speculation is fantasy football at its finest.

• For a closer look at the point-scoring, tape-watching madness, check out our reporting on the "Cabinet pageant."

Much has been said about Project 2025. I'm piling on.

Why it matters: The lengthy document, which has been hyperbolically likened to a conservative crystal ball, has a lot to say about the Defense Department.

Here's the guidance that jumped out to me:

• Spend big on munitions and parts. Make more now so you can stockpile them tomorrow and arrive to next week's fight locked and loaded.
• A hybrid fleet for the U.S. Navy is necessary. End of story. That means swarms of drones on, above and below the waves.
• The Sentinel nuclear missile is here to stay, and is just one part of a much larger and more expensive overhaul of the U.S. nuclear weapons ecosystem.
• The U.S. should be more aggressive in space. That requires reversing the Biden administration's defensive crouch.
• Intelligence has for too long been spread too thin. Additional attention, including in cyberspace, should be paid to the largest threats: China and Russia.
• Missile defense is hot, and could be hotter with the deployment of directed-energy weapons.
• There are too many generals. (The Trump transition team is mulling a board that could recommend the removal of military leaders, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.)

The bottom line: These excerpts alone are a massive lift. Change will not happen overnight.

🇮🇳 V-BAT drones will be built and tested in India in the years ahead, following an agreement between Shield AI and JSW Group.

• Why it matters: The U.S.-India relationship is a precious one in light of China's global ambitions. This is also a serious Indo-Pacific foothold for Shield AI.
• 💭 My thought bubble: This move for Shield could have larger implications, including improved supply chains and overseas manufacturing capabilities.

🧨 Incendiary weapons were used in four wars in the past year, including in Ukraine, Gaza and Syria, according to "Beyond Burning," a new study shared by Human Rights Watch.

• Why it matters: Napalm, thermite and other substances can cause collateral damage. The use of white phosphorus munitions "contributed to the widespread displacement of civilians from southern Lebanon," the organization said.
• 💭 My thought bubble: "Dragon drones" in Eastern Europe, and immensely popular on social media, are just the tip of the iceberg.

🇺🇳 The UN will establish an expert panel to study the devastating effects of nuclear war, with findings expected sometime in 2027.

• Why it matters: An assessment like this hasn't happened in a very long time.
• 💭 My thought bubble: The public could always use more information about nukes. This study should be widely supported and read.

💸 Israel is buying from Boeing 25 F-15s. It's a $5.2 billion transaction with an option for 25 more down the road.

• Why it matters: The aircraft are expected to have enhanced range and payloads while also integrating with existing Israeli tech. The first few will arrive around 2031.
• 💭 My thought bubble: Everything Israel buys, builds and operates reverberates across the greater Middle East. Always take a look.

Lockheed Martin's clandestine Skunk Works cooked up a concept for a stealthy, optionally manned tanker.

Why it matters: The U.S. Air Force is mulling the future of air dominance and refueling. Its NGAD and NGAS endeavors are attracting some of the biggest names in defense contracting.

• The single image above spurred headlines in Aviation Week, The War Zone, Air and Space Forces Magazine and more.

Zoom in: Two fuel booms extend from the flounder-flat aircraft. If there is a cockpit for a human, it's hard to spot.

📧 What do you think of the design? Shoot me a reply!