Axios Future of Defense

November 05, 2026
Good morning, y'all. Welcome back to our space-focused Thursday edition!
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🛰️ Watch this space: Let's look at Iran's space capabilities, post-election defense priorities and special operations.
Today's newsletter is 1,517 words, a 5.5-minute read.
1 big thing: Iran's space threats
Iran is using space to land big blows against U.S. forces in the Middle East.
Why it matters: Despite the U.S. bombing Iran's key space-related facilities, the nation is still seen as an "emerging" space power, according to a Pentagon intel report.
State of play: Iran took offensive actions against U.S. space capabilities during Operation Epic Fury, the Defense Intelligence Agency revealed.
- Iran has several land-based jamming systems that can degrade space-based GPS, the DIA report said.
- In September, the U.S. Transportation Department warned of "significant" interference to global navigation systems in the Strait of Hormuz.
What they're saying: U.S. officials are also alarmed about Iran's use of space intelligence to more accurately strike key military sites.
- "Space is accessible and affordable today," Brig. Gen. Todd Benson, Space Forces Central commander, said at a Mitchell Institute webinar last month. "It used to be that you had to be a world power to have any space capability or access to space."
Between the lines: Adm. Brad Cooper, the head of U.S. Central Command, said the military delivered "space superiority" over Iran in March after striking the country's space command.
- But some U.S. defense analysts have doubts given the nation's persistent electronic warfare and jamming assets.
- Todd Harrison, the American Enterprise Institute's aerospace expert, said if Iran can degrade U.S. space capabilities, "we don't have superiority" over it.
- Iran does "have some capabilities that are challenging our use of space," Kari Bingen, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told me, with the caveat that the nation's assets pale in comparison to those of the U.S., China and even Russia.
Context: Overall, Iran's space program hasn't made major strides.
- In 2024, its Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics launched three satellites into low-Earth orbit, marking the first successful flight of its Simorgh rocket, DIA said.
- The country now has a dozen operational satellites, per AEI's space data. By comparison, the U.S. has more than 1,000 times that.
Yes, but: Iran has friends in high places.
- It reportedly purchased a Chinese spy satellite that aided ground targeting, according to the Defense Department's Irregular Warfare Center.
- In May, the State Department sanctioned three Chinese entities for "providing satellite imagery that enables Iran's military strikes."
- Russia launched two sensing satellites for Iran in 2022 and 2024, according to DIA. There were reportedly more Russian-backed launches in 2025.
What's next: The intel agency warned that Iran is pursuing military and civil space programs to "boost its national prestige, economic development, and military modernization."
- Iran is also "focused on improving guidance and navigation systems resistance to electronic attack," the DIA report said.
The bottom line: The U.S. military ultimately leads in outer space, but Iran's ground game is leveling the playing field on Earth.
- "Us declaring space superiority in this conflict is kind of like declaring air superiority when the adversary is consistently able to shoot down your planes," Harrison said.
2. Hot water Hegseth
Tuesday's election was great for Democrats. It was bad for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and some of the White House's most ambitious national security projects.
Why it matters: Surprise wins across the map for Democrats — including in the Deep South — complicate a lot for the Trump administration.
- Republicans have relied on a simple-majority funding mechanism known as reconciliation to pay for marquee projects like Golden Dome. That option is now a long shot over the next few months, and impossible after that.
- Outrage over the Iran war, well beyond the half-year mark, is sure to turbocharge a long list of congressional inquiries.
- And lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, including Reps. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), have suggested impeaching Hegseth. (My colleagues Marc Caputo and Alex Isenstadt report that Hegseth is on "thin ice.")
Follow the money: Defense analysts agree prospects for the administration's full $1.5 trillion defense budget look grim.
- A Wednesday note from TD Cowen's Washington Research Group warned that "Trump 'branded' projects are dead." Golden Dome, Golden Fleet and "other signature efforts," it added, "will be curbed."
- Meanwhile, Todd Harrison, an American Enterprise Institute defense budget expert, said it's unlikely the lame-duck congressional session will pass reconciliation and that it instead will keep the defense budget operating under a continuing resolution into next year.
- "They're all at risk," Harrison said of reconciliation-backed programs. "My base expectation is nothing happens on the defense budget."
3. Space Force SOCOM
Specially trained, space-focused troops are needed for future special operations missions, a top commander told reporters.
Why it matters: The Space Force is becoming more crucial for the U.S. military's missions, including operations with its most elite units.
- Space Forces Special Operations Command was formally activated this week at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida.
- Col. Peter "Charlie" Norsky, the command's new leader, said it will plan with those highly trained Guardians in mind for future fights.
What he's saying: Norsky said Guardians in a "space special warfare team" can help the military's top operators identify vulnerabilities such as electromagnetic threats, GPS jamming and interference with battlefield communications.
- "For us, it's about preserving survivability, awareness and [speed of decision] when every second matters," said.
Catch up quick: Axios first reported the stand-up of the new command last month.
- It follows the creation of components focused on space threats in the Middle East, Europe, Africa and the Pacific.
The bottom line: The Space Force wants brains and brawn for its special operations.
- "We're looking for those Guardians who are expert at their craft, whether that's operations, intel, cyber, and that they are able to maneuver with their [special operations] counterparts," Norsky said.
4. Quick hits
🚀 Rocket Lab's Electron launch vehicle is eyeing its 100th mission later this month.
- Why it matters: The 99th payload launched this week was a Japanese Earth-imaging satellite. It positions Electron as "the most frequently launched commercial small rocket in the world," the firm said.
- 💭 My thought bubble: Electron is getting reps in, but the space industry is eagerly waiting for Rocket Lab's Neutron to be ready for national security missions.
⭐️ Chance Saltzman, the recently retired four-star general who led the Space Force, has joined Voyager Technologies' board of advisors as chairman.
- What he's saying: "The national security space mission is expanding faster than industry can currently meet it," Saltzman said in a statement, adding that Voyager can "close that gap."
- 💭 My thought bubble: Saltzman grew the Space Force and built up the service's war-fighting identity. I'll be keeping an eye out for what Space Force contracts the Denver-based firm nets.
🦇 Shield AI's X-Bat unmanned fighter prototype is complete and heading to flight testing, the company said yesterday.
- What's next: The aircraft is being carted to Shield AI's Kansas facility, where engineers will further test the aircraft.
- 💭 My thought bubble: Vertical landing isn't easy, but Armor Harris, Shield's senior vice president of aircraft engineering, worked on SpaceX's reusable Falcon 9 rocket.
5. ICYMI: MAGA moonshot
So ... about that election night space proclamation.
- President Donald Trump issued a sweeping declaration on Tuesday evening saying that outer space was "open to exploration, development, use, and the establishment of a permanent presence by American citizens."
Why it matters: The White House wants to declare itself the top driver in the space race as NASA eyes an ambitious 2028 lunar return mission.
- China is in the rearview mirror and has plans for a manned mission "before 2030."
What they're saying: Space experts told me they were puzzled by the election night message.
- "What's unique about the declaration is the discussion of establishing settlements and a permanent presence on other celestial bodies," Aaron Brynildson, a space law instructor at the University of Mississippi, told me.
- That would violate the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, but Brynildson added the edict is "worded in such a way to leave enough room for an interpretation that it doesn't."
- "I think he wants to push the boundary without pushing the boundary," Doug Loverro, a former top NASA and Pentagon space policy official, told me.
6. Check this out
Cue "Life on Mars?" by David Bowie.
- Space Force Col. Ellen Ellis was one of four crew members who spent more than a year in isolation at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston for a mock Red Planet mission.
- The NASA crew entered their 1,700-square-foot, 3D-printed home away from home on Oct. 19, 2025. They exited last week, on Oct. 31.
Why it matters: The White House is pushing for a manned Mars mission. These experiments are testing the limitations.
What she's saying: "For me, maintaining American preeminence in space isn't guaranteed, but it is a national imperative, and it takes hard work," Ellis told Space Force Guardians last month.
Big thanks to Kate Marino for editing and Matt Piper for copy editing. We appreciate you for reading and sharing. Tell your friends to subscribe here. 🤠 Y'all take care.
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