Axios' Neil Irwin writes that the '24 economy is on track to be described with a word that hasn't been applicable yet this decade: normal.

• Why it matters: The extraordinary stresses of a pandemic, inflation, war and the onset of tight money over the last four years have created a collective sense of an economy unmoored. But there's good reason to think 2024 will give way to something less chaotic.

🖼️ The big picture: Pandemic-disrupted supply chains are pretty much righted. Inflation is back near normal levels. Labor shortages have eased. The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates next year.

This forecast of a normal economy — simultaneously dodging the pain of high inflation, high interest rates, and high unemployment — isn't some remote pipe dream. It's the answer you get when you ask all kinds of decision-makers what they think is most likely.

• It's the answer we got when we asked about 600 Axios Macro readers how they expect the economy to perform in 2024. They put 25% odds on a 2024 recession, down from 50% a year earlier.

It's also the answer from 141 CEOs of America's biggest companies in the Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index.

• And panels of professional economic forecasters. And government agencies that project these things.
• "You're seeing so many of the indicators coming back to normal," Fed chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference this month. (He did caveat: "not all of them.")

🥊 Reality check: If the last four years have taught us anything, it's the world's unpredictability.

The bottom line: A boring, solid economy could be just what Americans need to feel better about the world. The stars may be lining up to provide exactly that.

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Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer is expected in Washington today for meetings at the White House and State Department about Israel's plans for eventually scaling down the war and transitioning to a low-intensity operation in Gaza, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

• Dermer is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's closest confidant.

Why it matters: The meetings come amid growing tensions between the Biden administration and Israel over when the high-intensity phase of the war should end — and what will happen in Gaza after it does.

What's happening: Dermer is set to meet with White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Tony Blinken and members of Congress, a senior Israeli official said.

• Dermer is expected to discuss Israel's plans for the low-intensity phase in the war, which Israeli officials expect to start by the end of January — and how civilian affairs in Gaza will be managed in the long transition phase ahead, the Israeli official said.
• The official added that Dermer will also discuss Netanyahu's thinking regarding what happens in Gaza when the war ends, including who governs the enclave in the long term.

🧠 Context: The Biden administration has said it wants the Palestinian Authority to have a role in governing Gaza in a post-Hamas reality.

• Netanyahu has previously rejected that idea. But in recent weeks, Dermer and other Israeli officials started speaking to their U.S. counterparts about what they called "R.P.A." — reformed Palestinian Authority, a U.S. official said.

🔎 Behind the scenes: Dermer is also expected to express concern about Israel's munitions stockpile, and request that the U.S. expedite weapons shipments.

• Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant spoke to Blinken last week and noted delays in delivery of munitions.
• Gallant asked if the holdup was politically motivated. Blinken reassured him it wasn't. Two U.S. officials said there's been no decision to slow-walk delivery. "It is a pure paperwork issue," one of the officials said.

Netanyahu made a rare visit to Gaza yesterday, telling soldiers: "Whoever talks about stopping, there is no such thing."

• He later vowed to expand Israel's operation in Gaza, arguing military pressure is the only way to secure the release of hostages.

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Once-fringe anti-vaccine candidates and policies are gaining power in state governments across the country.

• Why it matters: "The victories come as part of a political backlash to pandemic restrictions and the proliferation of misinformation about the safety of vaccines," The Washington Post reports.

Context: Skepticism about COVID shots has spread to all childhood vaccines. The nationwide rate of kindergartners with vaccine exemptions nearly doubled between 2012 and 2022, according to CDC estimates.

What's happening: This year, bills dropping or barring vaccine-related requirements passed legislatures in Florida, Tennessee, Iowa, and Louisiana, and the movement gained power in Michigan, The Post found.

• In Louisiana, 29 candidates endorsed by Stand for Health Freedom, a national group that fights mandatory vaccinations, won in off-year elections in November.

Taylor Swift couldn't help from the suite as her boyfriend, Travis Kelce (No. 87), and his Kanas City Chiefs were stunned at home by the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas Day, 20-14.

• Swift arrived on a golf cart with Santa, who joined her in the suite.

28 more photos.

President Biden ordered retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian-backed militia groups after three U.S. service members were wounded in a Christmas Day drone attack in northern Iraq, the White House announced.

Why it matters: The Israel-Hamas war is rippling across the Middle East, creating turmoil that has turned U.S. troops at bases in Iraq and Syria into targets, Reuters notes.

🖼️ The big picture: Biden has tried to prevent the war from spiraling into a wider regional conflict that opens up new fronts of Israeli fighting — or draws the U.S. in directly, AP reports.

• The administration's measured response — where not every attempt on American troops has been met with a counterattack — has drawn criticism from Republicans.

🔭 Zoom out: The U.S. military has come under attack at least 100 times in Iraq and Syria, usually with rockets and drones, since the Israel-Hamas war began in October.

• It's unclear if the latest U.S. retaliation will deter future action against U.S. forces, who are deployed in Iraq and Syria to prevent a resurgence of Islamic State militants.

The FBI and Denver police are investigating threats to the Colorado Supreme Court justices who ruled that former President Trump can't appear on state ballots next year.

• A Denver police spokesperson told Axios' Rebecca Falconer that officers are "providing extra patrols around justice's residences" following threats against the justices.

Threat level: The names of the four Colorado justices who ruled to disqualify Trump have appeared frequently in "incendiary" posts on extremist online forums, with calls to expose the judges' personal data, CNN reports.

WeWork was once valued at nearly $50 billion.

• The company's current market cap sits below $30 million after filing for bankruptcy protection in November, Axios' Hope King writes in her year-end business winners/losers.

How it happened, by Axios' Kate Marino.

The original versions of Mickey and Minnie Mouse will soon enter the public domain, more than 95 years after first being introduced by Walt Disney in "Steamboat Willie," Axios Pro Rata author Dan Primack writes.

• Beginning Jan. 1, any creator has the legal right to use the characters in new works, as long as it's the "Steamboat Willie" versions and not the near-century of animated evolution.

Why it matters: The iconic duo could be in for some very different sorts of adventures, judging by what happened when Winnie the Pooh came out of copyright protection last year.

What's happening: Mickey and Minnie were scheduled to enter the public domain in 2004, but Disney got a reprieve when Congress passed a 20-year extension.

• The early Disney characters will be joined by other properties, including "Lady Chatterley's Lover" by D.H Lawrence and "The Circus" directed by Charlie Chaplin, according to a list compiled by Jennifer Jenkins, director of the Duke Center for the Study of the Public Domain.

Go deeper: Other characters on brink of public domain.