LOS ANGELES — The two most consequential races in California have devolved into twin spectacles, with years of visible dysfunction hollowing out Democrats' case for competent leadership, Axios' Zachary Basu writes.

• Primaries in the gubernatorial and L.A. mayoral races will be June 2 — 25 days from now.

Why it matters: California is the ultimate paradox of Democratic rule. A state of immense wealth, innovation and cultural power is increasingly unable to deliver the basics of housing, public safety and disaster response.

The big picture: Those failures have been building for years.

• But COVID and last year's catastrophic fires have transformed long-simmering frustration with California governance into a visceral public indictment of the people running the state — one now playing out in the races for governor and Los Angeles mayor.

🕶️ State of play: In the governor's race, no Democrat has emerged as a credible heir to Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), whose eight years in office will shadow his march to the White House.

• Former Biden Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, polling at just 4% as recently as April, is now the Democratic frontrunner after former Rep. Eric Swalwell abruptly quit the race over sexual assault allegations.
• Billionaire Tom Steyer is the unlikely progressive darling of the field, having spent at least $132 million of his own fortune.
• Former Rep. Katie Porter, once a rising progressive star, has languished in single digits since viral footage resurfaced of her berating a staffer.
• San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, also stuck in single digits, has attracted a wave of Silicon Valley money.

Between the lines: Republicans remain massive underdogs statewide. But they have a plausible path to qualifying for California's top-two general election.

• Steve Hilton, the Trump-endorsed, British-born former Fox News host, leads the field with a blunt message: one-party Democratic rule has destroyed the California Dream.
• Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, an immigration hardliner and former member of the far-right Oath Keepers militia, is MAGA in its purest form.

🎥 The chaos of the governor's race is matched only by the fury of the L.A. mayor's race, where incumbent Karen Bass is fighting for political survival in the wake of the devastating fires in January 2025.

• Reality TV personality Spencer Pratt, who blames Bass and city leaders for the destruction of his Pacific Palisades home, has become an unlikely avatar for anti-establishment rage.
• City Councilmember Nithya Raman, a democratic socialist challenging Bass from the left, argues that L.A.'s crises stem from a city government too timid and dysfunctional to build housing or deliver basic services.

The intrigue: Pratt's longshot campaign is riding a wave of viral momentum. His scathing attacks on city leadership — rooted in the loss of his home in the fires — resonate far beyond the usual boundaries of L.A. politics.

• Pratt, a registered Republican, has resisted partisan branding even as MAGA influencers embrace him as a symbol of revolt against Democratic governance.
• A surreal AI-generated ad reposted by Pratt — depicting Bass in Joker makeup and Newsom as a cake-eating French aristocrat — racked up millions of views and widespread praise from Republicans.

The bottom line: In an ideal world, California would be the Democratic Party's proof of concept — a diverse, economically dominant liberal stronghold designed to prove progressive governance could deliver at scale.

• That vision has unraveled, ground down by an affordability crisis, homelessness, bureaucratic paralysis and a botched response to the worst wildfires in California history.

For 2028, Democrats need a case for themselves that doesn't begin and end with President Trump. California is the most damning evidence yet that they don't have one.

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The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz last night, with Iran firing missiles and drones at three U.S. Navy destroyers and the U.S. striking a range of targets, Axios' Barak Ravid and Dave Lawler write.

• Why it matters: The ceasefire is again under strain just as the White House is hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough.

🇮🇷 Driving the news: CENTCOM said it struck Iranian launch sites, command centers and intelligence nodes after Iran conducted unsuccessful missile and drone attacks on the three U.S. ships.

• Iran's military described the U.S. strikes as a ceasefire violation and threatened retaliation.
• President Trump told ABC News they were "just a love tap" and the ceasefire is still on.
• He later told reporters: "They trifled with us today and we blew them away. They better sign their agreement fast."

👀 What to watch: The U.S. expects Iranian responses by the weekend to the one-page draft memo designed to end hostilities and launch more detailed peace talks.

• A U.S. official said envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to skip Trump's trip to China next week to stay in the U.S. to focus on negotiations.

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The Trump administration is poised to reshape the U.S. approach to AI security ahead of President Trump's trip to China next week, Axios' Ashley Gold writes.

⚠️ Why it matters: What happens next could be the turning point for the White House's approach to the proliferation of the most advanced AI models in the world.

After years of promoting speed and growth, the Trump administration is realizing it may need more guardrails.

• The U.S. and China are weighing official discussions about AI, beginning during the Beijing summit, The Wall Street Journal reports.
• Several potential executive actions about AI safety and deployment are in the works. Some could be announced before Trump's trip.

🧐 Between the lines: The White House posture change was sparked in part by fears over the hacking capabilities of Anthropic's Mythos Preview.

Above: Secretary of State Marco Rubio presents Pope Leo with a miniature crystal football during a Vatican meeting yesterday that followed a string of attacks from President Trump on the first American pontiff.

Above: Rubio announces new sanctions on Cuba, which come as he leads the administration's push for regime change on the island. Go deeper.

Health authorities are adamant there's no danger of a COVID 2.0 from the outbreak of a deadly virus aboard a cruise ship that is headed for the Canary Islands, Axios' Avery Lotz writes.

• The disease is far less contagious and far more deadly than COVID, with a fatality rate of up to 50% in the Americas.
• But the World Health Organization said yesterday that "if we follow public health measures" and lessons learned from a prior hantavirus outbreak in Argentina, "we can break this chain of transmission."

🛳️ Hantavirus has left travelers isolating in their rooms and sparked a diplomatic debate about where the ship should dock.

• Three deaths have been reported and several others have fallen ill after the outbreak on the ship that embarked from Argentina early last month. WHO says eight suspected or confirmed cases are connected to the ship.
• U.S. officials in at least five states are monitoring returning passengers for symptoms, but no cases have been confirmed.

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That's the likely number of Democratic U.S. House members from Tennessee next year (down from one) after state legislators yesterday joined the nationwide trend of approving new gerrymandered maps.

• The Black-majority ninth district, representing Memphis, is now spread across three red districts, Axios Nashville's Nate Rau reports.

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Record-low consumer sentiment, the Iran war and a relatively dormant housing market are suppressing sales of big-ticket home items, Axios' Nathan Bomey writes.

• Whirlpool shares plummeted yesterday after the appliance maker said industry demand dropped 10% in March — the biggest decline since the global financial crisis.

Appliance owners are suddenly trying to fix their own machines to save money. "One of the strongest businesses in Q1 was actually our spare parts and repair business," Whirlpool CEO Marc Bitzer said.

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The men's and women's NCAA basketball tournaments are expanding to 76 teams, the NCAA announced yesterday.

• 🏀 How it works: There'll be 12 opening-round games to whittle the field down to the traditional 64-team bracket.

🧮 By the numbers: The men's tournament began with 8 teams in 1939, expanded to 16 in 1951, jumped to 32 in 1975, was up to 64 by 1985 and went to 68 in 2011.