California governor race wide open after Swalwell exit
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Congressman Eric Swalwell's abrupt exit from the California governor's race during the weekend upends the contest less than two months before the primary.
Why it matters: Swalwell led in some polls among his eight Democratic rivals, while nabbing several prominent endorsements.
- Now, it's all up for grabs, and analysts say any middle-of-the-pack Democrat could surge to the front.
Catch up quick: Swalwell announced Sunday he is suspending his campaign amid allegations of rape, sexual assault and sexual misconduct, which he denies.
Other Democrat candidates in the crowded field include billionaire businessman Tom Steyer, Congresswoman Katie Porter, former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former State Controller Betty Yee.
- Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco are running as Republicans.
Between the lines: Swalwell's dramatic exit means far more voters will be tuning into the race, Republican strategist Mike Madrid told Axios.
- "You will start to see more focus on issues, and I would not be surprised if it's one of the lower-tier candidates that starts to move up," he said.
A new front-runner will likely emerge in the next couple of weeks, UCLA politics professor Matt Barreto told Axios.
- It could be Katie Porter or Tom Steyer, but it could also be perhaps some of the other candidates who have been holding on and have a good following," including Becerra, Yee or Villaraigosa, he said.
Yes, but: Political columnist Dan Walters told Axios he thinks the bulk of the support will go to Porter.
- "Because she's a woman, and the nature of the (Swalwell) scandal would help any woman candidate," he said.
- While Porter has her own baggage, with accusations of a toxic work environment and verbal abuse, that matters little and even less in the wake of the Swalwell accusations, Walters said.
State of play: Ballots are mailed the first week of May, and voting ends June 2.
- The two candidates with the most votes advance to November, even if they're both Democrats or both Republicans.
What we're watching: Democrats are immediately going to see if they can grab momentum, Barreto said.
- Even before Swalwell's exit, Democratic party leaders wanted fewer candidates to reduce the chances that the two Republican candidates advance, Barreto said.
- With Swalwell's departure, it's less likely that other candidates will also drop out for now, Barreto said, but bottom dwellers may start eyeing the exit in a few weeks.
While Steyer was also polling near Swalwell, Barreto said he thinks he won't get much more support.
- "He has thrown so much money at this race that the fact that he hasn't bolted to the top probably suggests he may have stalled out," he said.
Inside the room: Madrid said he bets lower polling candidates are glad they didn't listen to Democratic Party leadership's pleas to exit the race earlier.
- "Think of how foolish you would have looked now if you dropped out last week, so why would you drop out now?" he said. "There's literally no leader of this party. There's no leading candidate at this point."