California's "red pill": MAGA wages information war as LA burns
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Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
LOS ANGELES — Elon Musk and his allies are waging a ruthless information war in California, sensing opportunity in the ashes of the most destructive wildfires in state history.
Why it matters: For decades, Republicans have tried and failed to end Democrats' near-monopoly on power in the nation's most populous state. This time, they insist, the conditions are ripe for a reckoning.
Driving the news: More than a week after the Palisades Fire erupted — and with three major infernos still burning — Republicans are still flooding the zone with allegations of gross mismanagement by California Democrats.
- For conservatives emboldened by Donald Trump's victory, the targets are familiar: DEI programs at the Los Angeles Fire Department, undocumented immigrants, red tape — even aid to Ukraine.
- Trump, Musk and other MAGA influencers have spread misinformation about water policies in California, while downplaying the role of climate change in fostering historically dry conditions.
As his allies gleefully mused about flipping California in the next election, Musk predicted the state's burdensome regulations would accelerate the electorate's rightward trend.
- "The real red pill will come when people try to get permits to rebuild their homes and face multiyear waits," Musk wrote on X, racking up nearly 50 million views on his post.
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) signed an executive order this week waiving permitting requirements for fire victims seeking to rebuild their homes, and has pushed to slash red tape as the GOP attacks have escalated.
Zoom in: The political danger is most acute for LA Mayor Karen Bass, a former U.S. House Democrat who was on President Biden's short list to be his running mate in 2020.
- Bass, who was elected in 2022 and is up for reelection next year, has been pilloried for traveling to Ghana a day after the National Weather Service warned of dangerous fire conditions in LA.
- Her 2022 opponent Rick Caruso, a billionaire real estate developer and former Republican, has seized on the crisis as he weighs another run for mayor — or for governor.
Newsom — one of the most prominent Democrats in the country amid the party's post-election leadership vacuum — is widely expected to run for president in 2028.
- He's been front-and-center in countering MAGA's messaging offensive but expressed a desire to work with Trump on the recovery effort, despite their verbal sparring.
- "I get the California Derangement Syndrome. I've been living with that for years and years," Newsom told MSNBC, excoriating Trump and Musk for spreading "lies" about the wildfire response.
The big picture: Musk's bluster aside, Democrats acknowledge they face serious challenges in California that predate the fires — and that their supermajority in the legislature makes it difficult to blame Republicans.
- Crime, homelessness, illegal immigration, high prices and an intractable housing crisis helped Trump increase his vote share in 45 of California's 58 counties in 2024.
- In Los Angeles County — which shifted an astonishing 11 points to the right — a progressive district attorney was defeated by a former Republican who vowed to crack down on crime.
- California voters overwhelmingly passed a ballot measure, Prop 36, to increase penalties for drug and theft crimes, and recalled Oakland's mayor and local district attorney over public safety issues.
Reality check: The main beneficiaries of California's backlash have been independents and moderate Democrats — not Republicans, and certainly not the strain of MAGA Republicans publicly agitating for a revolution.
- Most Californians believe climate change is contributing to the fires, even if they're unhappy with state leadership's handling of the crisis.
- House Republicans' threat to condition federal aid to California, meanwhile, risks public blowback at a moment of vulnerability for Democrats.
What to watch: Republicans today are flush with billionaire cash and influence, much of it concentrated in Silicon Valley, Hollywood and other parts of California where supporting Trump is no longer taboo.
- Flipping the state is still a "long-term project," as pro-Trump activist Charlie Kirk put it last month — but one that could be accelerated by this type of systemic shock.
- "We don't see these shifts overnight," California Assembly Republican leader James Gallagher said in a local news interview. "Texas was once a blue state, and slowly but surely it became a red state."
