October 30, 2023

🍫 Good Monday morning. It's Halloween eve! Smart Brevity™ count: 1,481 words ... 5½ mins. Edited by Emma Loop and Bryan McBournie.

⚖️ Situational awareness: Former President Trump and his three oldest kids are scheduled to testify over the next week in the civil fraud trial in Manhattan that imperils his business empire.

  • Don Jr. is expected to take the stand Wednesday, Eric Trump on Thursday, Ivanka Trump on Friday and Trump himself a week from today. Keep reading.

1 big thing: Biden's aggressive AI move

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

President Biden's long-awaited executive order on AI, which dropped at 5 a.m. today, requires developers of the most powerful systems to share internal testing data — usually kept private — with the government.

  • Why it matters: This is a significant transparency-boosting step that may not be welcomed by the secretive industry, Axios' Maria Curi and Ashley Gold report.

White House deputy chief of staff Bruce Reed calls the order "the strongest set of actions any government in the world has ever taken on AI safety, security, and trust."

  • "It's the next step in an aggressive strategy to do everything on all fronts to harness the benefits of AI and mitigate the risks," he added.

Biden will sign the order in the East Room this afternoon. Key points:

  • Companies developing AI models that pose serious risks to public health and safety, the economy or national security will have to notify the federal government when training the model and share results of red-team safety tests before making models public.
  • That provision goes beyond voluntary commitments that the White House garnered from AI companies and requires notification in accordance with the Defense Production Act.
  • A senior administration official told reporters on a preview call that the DPA enforcement mechanism wasn't previewed for industry.

Areas included in the order beyond safety and security, per the White House:

  1. Privacy: The government will prioritize supporting the development of privacy tools using cutting edge AI systems.
  2. Equity and civil rights: Landlords, federal benefits program managers and federal contractors will be given guidance to keep algorithms from being used to exacerbate discrimination.
  3. Innovation and competition: Small developers and entrepreneurs will be provided technical assistance and resources to commercialize AI, and the Federal Trade Commission will be encouraged to exercise its authorities to promote competition.

🥊 Reality check: The Biden administration recognizes executive orders can't replace legislation and continues to call on Congress to pass a law governing AI safety.

2. Schools face wave of migrant pupils

Photo illustration: Allie Carl/Axios. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

School districts across the country are on the front lines of the migrant crisis, as children coming with their families across the U.S.-Mexico border enter classrooms, Axios' Stef Kight, Alayna Alvarez, Steph Solis, Caitlin Owens, Monica Eng and Cuneyt Dil report.

Why it matters: Districts across the country are scrambling to meet the learning, physical health and mental health needs of their new students.

  • All children in the U.S. are entitled to a public elementary and secondary education regardless of their citizenship or immigration status, the Education Department says.

🧮 By the numbers: Chicago Public Schools have seen their first enrollment bump in 12 years thanks to the new arrivals.

  • Boston hired 18 in-school social workers dedicated to migrants with major education gaps — in addition to its existing 200.
  • D.C. reports it has struggled to find high-quality, bilingual mental health support for migrant students.

Threat level: This comes as many districts already face tight budgets.

3. 🎓 Cornell sends police to Jewish center

As supporters of Israel gather at the Lincoln Memorial on Friday, an empty shabbat table symbolizes hostages taken by Hamas. Photo: J. Scott Applewhite/AP

Cornell police are guarding a Jewish center on the Ivy League campus in Ithaca, N.Y., after antisemitic threats were posted on a discussion board yesterday.

  • The threats sent chills through Cornell's Jewish community, AP reports.

Cornell President Martha E. Pollack said that a "series of horrendous, antisemitic messages threatening violence to our Jewish community and specifically naming [the address of] the Center for Jewish Living ... was posted on a website unaffiliated with Cornell."

  • "Police will continue to remain on site to ensure our students and community members are safe," Pollack added. The FBI was notified.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul condemned the "disgusting & hateful posts."

🇷🇺 In Russia yesterday, 60 people were detained after a crowd surrounded an airliner during an antisemitic riot over the arrival of a plane from Israel.

  • Hundreds of people stormed into the main airport in Russia's Dagestan region and rushed onto the landing field, chanting antisemitic slogans and seeking passengers arriving on a flight from Tel Aviv, AP reports.

Authorities closed the airport in Makhachkala, the capital of the predominantly Muslim region. Get the latest.

4. 🍲 Home cooking falls to pre-pandemic levels

Data: Cookpad and Gallup. Chart: Axios Visuals

Americans are returning to pre-pandemic habits and cooking at home less, Axios' Ivana Saric writes from a Gallup-Cookpad global survey out today.

  • Why it matters: Factors include workers returning to the office — and cooking fewer lunches — and people feeling more comfortable going out to eat, Andrew Dugan, the study's research director, told Axios.

🧮 By the numbers: People in the U.S. and Canada ate the fewest number of home-cooked meals per week out of any region in the world in 2022, averaging only 8.4 meals per week — the same rate as 2019.

  • In the U.S., the eating-at-home rate reached a "historic low" last year, at 8.2 meals per week, compared to 9.4 in 2020.

Last year, women in North America reported cooking 1.7 more meals per week than men.

5. 🗳️ NEW: Haley surges in Iowa; DeSantis frozen

GOP primary poll
Data: Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa poll of 404 likely 2024 Republican caucusgoers. (Margin of error: ±4.9 points.) Chart: Des Moines Register

Out at 6 a.m. ET: Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is on the rise in Iowa, where she's tied for second in the latest NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers.

  • Why it matters: The GOP field is otherwise stalemated in the Hawkeye State. Former President Trump is lapping the field with 43% support in the poll, Axios' Justin Green writes.

Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are tied at 16%. Haley was at 6% in the first poll in August. DeSantis was at 19%.

  • Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.) is at 7%, compared to 9% in August. Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are tied at 4%.

Former Vice President Mike Pence, who dropped out Saturday, polled at 2%.

6. 📊 "Bull" market now looks like bear rally

Data: FactSet. Chart: Axios Visuals

This year's once-significant stock market gains are slipping away fast, as the higher-for-longer rates consensus clobbers the market, Axios' Matt Phillips writes.

  • Why it matters: It looks like the surge in stocks earlier this year will be revealed as one of the periodic rallies bear markets are known for — rather than the start of a bull run.

What's happening: The S&P 500's year-to-date gain stood at 7.2% after the close of trading Friday.

  • That's not terrible: The average annual gain for the index is 7.4% going back to 1929.

But back on Aug. 1, the S&P 500 was sitting on a gain of nearly 20% for the year.

  • That was before a series of strong reports on the economy and slightly high readings on inflation sent yields on 10-year Treasury notes up by nearly 1 percentage point.

Get Axios Markets.

7. 👏 Mourners throng real-life "Friends" building

Photo: Adam Gray/Getty Images

Above: People line up to pay tribute to Matthew Perry at the West Village apartment building that was used for "Friends" exterior shots.

Perry, who died Saturday at 54 at his home in L.A., "infused the hit show with its vital, sustaining dose of sarcasm," Variety reports:

He "went on in recent years to publicize his sobriety, and his work bringing others out of addiction through the founding of a sober living house. His death ... in an apparent drowning [in his hot tub] comes as a shock, in part because Perry seemed to have a second act lying ahead of him."

Friends react: "The One Where Our Hearts Are Broken."

8. 💍 After 48 years, Army wife reunited with wedding ring

Skyla holds her wedding ring for the first time in 48 years as her husband Phil makes her laugh. Photo courtesy Skyla Carmona

Forty-eight years after Nashville resident Skyla Carmona lost her wedding ring in a wooded area outside a small trailer at Fort Devens Army base in Massachusetts, it's been found, writes Nate Rau of Axios Nashville.

  • Why it matters: The discovery of Skyla's wedding ring is an example of the internet doing something good instead of bitterly dividing us.

Flashback: In 1975, Phil Carmona, a young soldier from New York City, and his wife Skyla, a southern girl from Cary, N.C., were stationed at the base in the small Massachusetts town.

  • The couple were poor, and lived with their baby in a trailer on the outskirts of woods.

One day, the couple got into a disagreement. In the heat of the moment, the ring was tossed into the woods.

  • The argument ended up as a blip in a nearly 50-year marriage. Skyla and Phil have eight children, 12 grandchildren and one great-grandchild.

But the ring stayed missing.

Editor's note: Nate wrote this story with a bias toward two people he loves his in-laws!

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