President Biden's allies see an opening:

• Americans are now getting an actual pay raise, even after inflation.

Why it matters: Rising real — that is, inflation-adjusted — earnings are a primary indication of improving standards of living, Matt Phillips writes for Axios Markets.

What's happening: In Saturday's AM, Felix Salmon told us about the return of "real pay hikes." And Jim VandeHei and I reported in yesterday's "Behind the Curtain" that Biden's campaign is counting on voters feeling awesome about the economy by November.

🧮 By the numbers: Average hourly earnings of private sector employees rose at an annual rate of 4.1% last month, according to Friday's job report.

• That's a smidge higher than the 4% gain in November — and roughly a point above that month's 3.1% rise in annual inflation.

🔎 Behind the scenes: Inside the White House, officials are circulating an estimate that it takes about a year for 50% of the pain of inflation to drop out of consumer sentiment.

• Axios Macro co-author Neil Irwin tells me the stat to watch is three-month inflation, since it's less volatile than the monthly figure (because of gas prices). The three-month rate was super high from spring '21 until July '22. It's been more moderate since then — and was really low at the end of '23.

💡 Neil's thought bubble: The inflation rate peaked in the summer of '22. But it came down so slowly that people have kept seeing rising prices since then.

• But they're rising more slowly, and at levels that (especially recently) wouldn't be alarming in isolation.

🥊 Reality check: Don't expect spontaneous parades. From April 2021 to June 2023 — more than two years — inflation was significantly higher than earnings. So workers' standards of living fell sharply.

• Go deeper: "Behind the Curtain" lays out Biden insiders' theory of how they win ... Share this story.

With former President Trump set to win the Iowa caucuses a week from today, his challengers' hopes ride on how much they carve into his lead.

• Their second — and, for many, last — chance will be the New Hampshire primary the following week, 15 days from today.

Axios' Sophia Cai and Alex Thompson analyzed the GOP candidates' Hawkeye State schedules, using data from the Des Moines Register's tracker:

1. Trump emphasized big rallies in urban centers — with help from surrogates, including South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and former HUD Secretary Ben Carson.
2. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who visited all 99 Iowa counties, was endorsed by Gov. Kim Reynolds. But he's been thwarted by Trump's popularity with evangelicals, who are big in Iowa.
3. Nikki Haley has emphasized stops in voter-dense suburbs. She held 51 events in Iowa during the past year — more than double Trump (24), but far fewer than DeSantis (99) or Ramaswamy (239).
4. Vivek Ramaswamy, Iowa's most-traveled candidate, holds as many as 10 events a day. But polls show he's gotten little bang for his mileage.

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a strange ask for the UAE president, Axios' Barak Ravid scoops:

• Bibi wanted Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) to pay "unemployment" stipends to Palestinian workers from the occupied West Bank. Israel had barred the workers from its territory after the terrorist attack by Hamas.

The stunned ruler rebuffed Bibi with a sarcastic: "Ask Zelensky for money!"

• MBZ said Zelensky gets lots of money from many countries — so maybe he could help, sources tell Barak.

Why it matters: MBZ's refusal underscores the insistence by many Arab countries that they won't foot the bill to maintain the status quo in the West Bank and Gaza after the war.

• "The notion that Arab countries will come in to rebuild and pay the bill for what's currently happening is wishful thinking," an Emirati official told Axios.

💭 MBZ said he was ready to help on the broad issue of Palestinians. But when Netanyahu asked if the UAE would pay the Palestinian workers, the Emirati president was stunned, a knowledgeable source said.

• MBZ couldn't believe the Israeli prime minister thought he would be willing to pay for a problem that was created due to Israel's decision not to allow the workers.

🖼️ The big picture: Rebuilding Gaza will be a massive undertaking. Israel's bombardment has caused such mass destruction that the UN aid office estimates at least a half million Palestinians won't have a home to return to.

• Keep reading.

The cellphone of the future may be able to detect air quality and smoke levels near the person carrying it, alerting users about dangerous findings.

• A startup, Mobile Physics, developed the technology. Qualcomm and STMicroelectronics are embedding it in a forthcoming Android phone platform, Jennifer A. Kingson writes for Axios What's Next.

Why it matters: Air pollution is becoming a more urgent health issue amid changing climate.

What's happening: Mobile Physics, an Israeli firm backed by Oracle founder Larry Ellison, says it can transform any cellphone into a personal "envirometer" and weather station.

• It uses a phone's existing sensors to measure air quality, smoke levels, temperature and UV exposure.

Read on ... Sign up for Axios What's Next.

The world's number No. 1 risk this year is "The United States vs. itself," Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer writes in "Top Risks 2024,” out this morning.

• "With the outcome of the vote essentially a coin toss (at least for now), the only certainty is continued damage to America's social fabric, political institutions, and international standing," he writes.

Among other threats on his list:

1. Middle East on the brink: "The current fighting in Gaza is likely to be only the first phase in an expanding conflict in 2024."
2. Ungoverned AI: "In a year when four billion people will head to the polls, generative AI will be used by domestic and foreign actors — notably Russia — to influence electoral campaigns, stoke division, undermine trust in democracy, and sow political chaos on an unprecedented scale."
3. Axis of rogues: Deepening ties among Russia, Iran and North Korea threaten global stability.

Read the report.

Dave McCormick — the Republican runner-up in the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate primary — raised $5.4 million in his first quarter as a 2024 candidate, Axios' Hans Nichols scoops.

• Why it matters: The early influx of cash into McCormick's joint fundraising committee is the latest sign that Pennsylvania's Senate race will be among the nation's most competitive contests in November, with control of the U.S. Senate in the balance.

McCormick, former CEO of the Bridgewater Associates investment firm, kicked in $1 million of his own money in Q4 to boost his tough bid to oust three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.).

• McCormick has been endorsed by the entire Pennsylvania GOP congressional delegation. That could help him avoid the kind of nasty primary that left his previous opponent, Trump-backed TV personality Dr. Mehmet Oz, bruised before the 2022 general election.

Go deeper.

The average ticket price for tonight's College Football Playoff National Championship in Houston, between Michigan and Washington, is the highest since the 2017 season, Axios' Maxwell Millington writes from SeatGeek data.

• The average ticket costs $2,845 — $1,100 more than last year's game, between TCU and Georgia in L.A.
• The "get-in" price — the cheapest ticket — for tonight's game is $1,302.

Go deeper: Coaching duel ... Share this story.

"Oppenheimer," the blockbuster biopic of J. Robert Oppenheimer's creation of the A-bomb, dominated the 81st Golden Globe Awards in Beverly Hills last night with five wins — the most of any film — including Best Motion Picture, Drama.

• Why it matters: The Globes have an erratic track record for predicting eventual Oscars success, but give contenders a huge momentum shot.

🎸 Swift's meme-worthy moment: When "Barbie" won the new award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement, it beat the nominee many thought would win: "Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour." Swift was a glamorous addition to the evening (Bruce Springsteen was there, too) in her custom Gucci gown.

• The camera cut to her several times. She wasn't happy when the host, comedian Jo Koy (whose monologue flailed and fell flat), joked that the difference between the Globes and the NFL is that the NFL has more reaction shots of Swift. She stared icily and took a sip of her drink. (AP)

🍿 What you didn't see on-camera: After the show, a shoeless Brie Larson hopped over to Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach in the lobby outside shouting "Gret-A! Gret-A!" before jumping up to hug the "Barbie" director.

• They were among the many A-listers streaming through the lobby on the way to studio and agency parties happening around L.A.

The buzz: Is "Oppenheimer" now the solid Oscars frontrunner? Can "Maestro" and "May December" make a comeback? Why did "Barbie" win only two Globes? (AP)

• List of winners ... Monologue jokes ... More photos.