Climate change will cost Tampa Bay billions per year by 2050
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Tampa Bay is facing billions of dollars in yearly property damage by 2050 due to extreme weather tied to climate change, per a new analysis.
Why it matters: Even as the region reckons with the aftermath of hurricanes Helene and Milton last year, more pain and loss seem inevitable.
Zoom in: Taken together, damage from extreme weather will cost the greater Tampa Bay area's eight counties — from Citrus to Sarasota and east to Polk — more than $3.7 billion annually, per a new Urban Institute analysis using FEMA data.
- As the region's most populous county, Hillsborough had the highest estimate at about $967.2 million. Pinellas' tab was the second-highest at about $622.6 million.
Flashback: Damage to homes and businesses during last year's hurricane season cost close to $5 billion in those two counties, the Tampa Bay Times tallied back in January.
- That shows that the annual total could be much higher in an active hurricane season.
The big picture: Extreme weather damage will cost $32 billion annually across Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida by 2050 in a "middle of the road" climate change scenario, per the analysis.
- That's more than double the projected $15 billion when ignoring climate change.
How it works: The Urban Institute's analysis is based on FEMA's Future Risk Index, which estimated future costs associated with coastal flooding, extreme heat, wildfires, hurricanes and drought.
- FEMA published the tool last December. It's since been taken down amid the Trump administration's purge of publicly accessible federal data and info about climate change.
- The financial figures are based on 2024 dollars.
What they're saying: The researchers chose a more moderate emissions scenario because it's actionable and realistic for policymakers, Sara McTarnaghan, Principal Research Associate at the Urban Institute, tells Axios.
- "But there's also the importance of thinking about not just one climate future, but planning for the certain uncertainties."
- McTarnaghan also notes that long-term projections like this one can't account for impossible-to-predict changes, like new climate adaptation and resiliency efforts, migration, etc.
Between the lines: Money can help quantify extreme weather's toll, but can't tell the whole story.
- "The full cost of disasters, including their effects on people's health and well-being and on the economy, are much higher," as the report puts it.
Catch up quick: Multiple studies show how human-caused climate change has made recent hurricanes more potent and destructive.
The latest: Local officials from Tampa Bay to New Orleans have been making storm resiliency upgrades to mitigate future disasters.
What's next: The Trump administration's efforts to dramatically reduce FEMA's disaster assistance role have yet to be tested by a major hurricane in Gulf Coast states.
- Those states have long relied on federal help and funds to recover from major storms.