Pasco population boom spurs shift from bedroom-community past
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A neighborhood in Pasco County's Zephyrhills, pictured in 2023, when city officials were grappling with the downsides of rapid growth. Photo: Chris Zuppa for the The Washington Post via Getty Images
Pasco County was one of the fastest-growing counties in Florida in recent years, according to an Axios analysis of census data.
Why it matters: With more growth comes a larger tax base and more industry but also issues like traffic and overdevelopment.
By the numbers: Pasco's population grew by about 15.3%, increasing from a five-year average of about 510,600 in 2014-2018 to about 588,800 in 2019-2023, per U.S. Census Bureau figures.
- St. Johns County, just south of Jacksonville, emerged as the fastest-growing county, with a whopping 24.1% population increase over the same period.
- Polk County, home to booming Lakeland, came in just under Pasco at 13.8%.
The big picture: Pasco benefited from mass migration into Florida and Tampa Bay driven by lower taxes, better quality of life and the COVID-19 pandemic.
State of play: The county's identity as a bedroom community for residents who work in Pinellas and Hillsborough has started to shift, according to county leaders who spoke with Axios.
- Population growth makes an area more attractive to consumer-facing businesses looking for talent and ways to grow their customer base, Pasco Economic Development Council president and CEO Bill Cronin said.
- And county leaders have incentivized commercial and industrial development so residents can work where they live, rather than commuting to jobs elsewhere, per Pasco County Commission chair Kathryn Starkey.
Zoom in: Drive around the county and the growth is tangible.
- Where forests or cattle ranches once stood are construction sites for master-planned communities or developments like Moffitt Cancer Center's 775-acre Speros campus.
- As of Thursday, there were 669 ongoing construction projects and an additional 200 applications under review, per the county's project pipeline.
Yes, but: With growth comes growing pains. Among them: traffic and affordable housing, Starkey said.
- Those issues have pushed commissioners to add more east-west road capacity, prioritize bike and walking trails, and look into easing restrictions on alternative dwelling units (ADUs), such as garage apartments and mother-in-law suites.
- One of the most infamous examples of growing pains: A water supply shortage in 2023 forced Zephyrhills city officials to halt all new development.
Between the lines: Starkey emphasized that, despite all the growth, more than a third of county land is preserved from development. Green space is part of what makes it a desirable place to live, she said.
What's next: For Cronin, the big concern is ensuring that job growth keeps up with residential development.
- "If you miss the job piece of it, then we still have people getting on the road every day and driving downtown or driving to St. Pete and places like that," he said. "It kind of defeats the purpose."