Apr 1, 2024 - News

Where Tampa Bay homes face flood risk in next 30 years

Percentage change in the average number of properties in significant-risk flood zones, 2023 to 2053
Data: First Street Foundation; Map: Axios Visuals

The share of Pinellas County properties with a significant risk of flooding is projected to increase by 18% in the next 30 years, according to the nonprofit First Street Foundation.

  • In Hillsborough, that rise is projected at about 11%.

Why it matters: Of the roughly 4,600 prospective homebuyers Zillow surveyed nationwide last spring, over 80% said they considered at least one climate risk when looking for a home, Axios' Sami Sparber reports.

State of play: Real estate websites are sharing more climate risk information with buyers and sellers.

Threat level: Nearly 45% of U.S. homes face the risk of severe or extreme damage from environmental threats, according to a new report from Realtor.com.

By the numbers: All Tampa Bay area counties other than Polk face a projected increase in the number of homes at risk of flooding, per the First Street Foundation data.

  • Sarasota faces the biggest jump in the region and the second-highest increase in Florida at 34%.
  • Pasco's increase is projected at about 14% and Manatee at 11%. Polk has a projected decrease of about 2%.
  • The highest increase — 41% — is expected in Volusia County, home to Daytona Beach.

Between the lines: Climate change threatens to make homeownership more expensive, said Matthew Eby, First Street founder and CEO, at an SXSW panel last month.

What's next: Climate risks aren't the only consideration when buying a new home, but more shoppers might want to know about home improvements made to mitigate against extreme weather, Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale said at the event.

Go deeper: The climate change real estate bubble risks billions


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