Seattle housing costs still lock out many
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Seattle's housing market may be stabilizing on paper, but it still excludes a growing share of residents, shaping who can stay in the city and who has to look elsewhere.
The big picture: The cost of purchasing a home in Seattle and the metro area remains out of reach for most first-time buyers, single people, service workers or middle-income households, John Manning, managing broker of RE/MAX Gateway, told Axios.
- "There is no such thing as affordability in Seattle anymore," he said. "We see almost no median-income buyers in the city. They're buying far outside of Seattle — or not at all."
Driving the news: December showed inventory continuing to outpace demand, with active listings rising 23% year over year in much of Western Washington, prices declining about 2% for the third consecutive month, and sales increasing just 4%, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service's December snapshot.
- The increase reflects listings lingering longer on the market as buyer demand remains muted.
Reality check: Even if housing prices fell 10%, a first-time buyer would still need to earn well over $220,000 a year to comfortably purchase a typical Seattle-area home — far above his $131,000 estimate of the area's median household income, real estate economist Matthew Gardner told Axios.
- Larger cuts that would meaningfully change who can buy would likely require distressed selling or a surge in inventory — neither of which Gardner sees materializing.
What they're saying: "There's a big difference between the market stabilizing and it actually resetting," Gardner said.
- In "real" terms, housing prices would need to fall by almost 50% to radically change who can afford to own, he said.
- "The kind of price drop that would change who can buy just isn't something I expect to see."
Stunning stats: Zillow projects modest improvements as income rises and mortgage rates ease, but the real savings are minimal. Consider the numbers:
- $730,000+: Typical Seattle-area home value.
- $4,567: Estimated monthly cost with 20% down.
- 46.6%: Share of median household income required.
- $28: Projected monthly mortgage cost reduction by the end of 2026.
The bottom line: "Sadly, there's no moment where suddenly everyone gets a fair shot at buying a home in Seattle," said Manning. "For a lot of people, the math will never work."