Why Seattle's housing market feels frozen in place
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Seattle's housing market seems stuck in place, even as mortgage rates ease and inventory climbs.
The big picture: Seattle's home-sale turnover — the share of homes that actually change hands — has plunged to 2% in 2025 from 3.2% in 2019, among the steepest drops in the country, according to an Axios analysis of recent Redfin data.
- When homeowners don't move, first-time buyers can't buy, move-up buyers can't trade up, and seniors can't downsize.
By the numbers: The Northwest Multiple Listing Service reports listings were up 27% year over year in October with 18,791 homes on the market across 27 Pacific Northwest counties, but closed sales were down 4%.
- The median home price among markets served by the listing fell slightly to $640,000, while 30-year mortgage rates averaged around 6.17% at the end of October, the lowest in a year.
- King County's median home price held at $887,300 — the state's highest. Snohomish County hit $739,500, even as listings surged 42% there, one of Washington's biggest jumps.
- Prices in Pierce and Kitsap counties were steadier, around $580,000 and $575,000, respectively, per NWMLS.
What they're saying: The slowdown reflects both timing and temperament, David Maider, a Windermere Real Estate franchise owner and chairperson of the board at NWMLS, told Axios.
- "Some of it is seasonal — transactions always dip moving into winter," Maider said. "But many homeowners are hanging on because they've got a great mortgage rate. Add in tech layoffs and economic uncertainty, and people are hesitant to make a move."
Zoom in: A RE/MAX National Housing Report ranks Seattle as the fifth-most-expensive metro in the U.S., with a $723,500 median sale price (-0.2% year over year) and the third-lowest supply nationwide, with just 1.6 months of inventory.
- Even with listings up more than 30% year over year, RE/MAX says closed home sales are at barely half the volume seen before 2022.
- Managing broker John Manning of RE/MAX Gateway said that imbalance captures the market's strange stalemate.
- "It's the highest inventory since 2019," he said, "but the fewest moves we've seen in years."
Yes, but: More home sales are falling apart as well, according to a separate Redfin report that found 15% of pending U.S. home sales fell through in September, up from 13.6% a year earlier.
- In Seattle, cancellations inched up from 8.8% to 9.5% — below the national average but still up as buyers grew more cautious about stretching their budgets in a high-cost market where insurance, taxes and maintenance costs continue to escalate.
Between the lines: Seattle's economy remains more diverse and resilient than most, but cracks are starting to show, Manning told Axios.
- "A few years ago, young professionals were moving here and buying," he said. "That's evaporated. Many who locked in low rates before 2022 are staying put, and newer buyers are wary of high costs and uncertainty."