Washington's economy stalls as hiring slows
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Washington's economy is joining other states in a slide toward recession, at least one expert says.
Why it matters: Tariffs, slowing immigration and federal job cuts are driving slowdowns nationwide, according to Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.
Driving the news: Washington is among 22 states that are either in or near recession, per Zandi. The states make up about one-third of U.S. GDP.
- The warning comes after a year of layoffs and slowing growth in Washington.
How it works: Zandi constructed an index combining state-level employment data, industrial production models, personal income estimates and housing starts to mirror how the National Bureau of Economic Research dates recessions.
By the numbers: Washington lost 13,600 jobs in August, but that followed several months of upward movement, said state Employment Security Department labor economist Paul Turek.
- Employment was down 5,400 jobs from a year ago, per ESD.
- The unemployment rate held steady at 4.5%, unchanged from July and from the same month last year.
- Washington's underemployment rate — which includes part-time and discouraged workers who've stopped looking for jobs — stands at 8.7%, above the national rate of 7.8%.
What they're saying: "We're running in place," Turek told Axios. "Hiring has slowed to stall speed — a no-hire, no-fire situation."
- He said employers remain wary amid political uncertainty, federal cuts and weak business investment.
- "Businesses are gamblers," he said. "They're betting the future will be brighter, but for now they're holding back."
Zoom in: Turek pointed to continued layoffs in tech and information services, sluggish aerospace production and a lull in manufacturing, partly offset by health care and education hiring.
Between the lines: With federal data flows disrupted by the government shutdown, August may offer the last clear snapshot of regional economic health for a while, writes Axios' Emily Peck.
What we're watching: Turek says future growth in Washington could hinge, in part, on private investment in data centers and advanced manufacturing, as companies position themselves for the AI boom.
- But nationally, private-sector data suggests the economy continued to lose jobs in September — underscoring the uncertainty ahead.